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Let's All Get Behind Alex Smith!

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Posted (edited)
On 5/23/2018 at 7:34 AM, bedlamVR said:

I think it is cynical to say Alex is here to save Jays job - I think it genuinely was the right move to make when it became clear that Kirk was not going to sign - and that was to go out and get the best QB available at the time. 

It is somewhat cynical... but hasn’t the FO given us reason for cynicism?  To be fair, I don’t think Smith was brought on to save Jay’s job, but rather Allen’s.  Saving Jay’s is just a (hopefully) nice byproduct, IMO.  

 

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Some may believe Smith is a win now move - But I kind of see Smith more as a very good bridging QB.

You could be right.  I’m of two minds about this.  It’s nice to have a bridge and competitiveness for the team as they continue to improve the whole team (again, hopefully), but it’s also putting off taking our lumps and/or developing a younger guy.  We’re also using valuable cap space in the process.  

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The worst thing about the early days of the Snyder eara were the constant coaching changes - each change brought new philosophies and washed out developmental depth from the roster.. 

 

I am not saying Smith is the bridge to a new contract for Jay etc - but he is a safe pair of hands (Smith) and while he may or may not get us over the hump - one thing he does do is give the team a steady consistent leader who wants to be here (or at least accepts it) at the top from which the rest of the roster can be given time to develop and the team identity to grow ( something that it really couldn't with that other guy)   - Ultimatly next year or in 2020 I figure we will be looking QB of the future ( Smiths contract is really a 3 year deal) - 

 

But if it gives us chance to establish a direction based on the foundation of the last 4 years and continue to build even though the names might change thats worth a slot corner who was constantly benched two seasons ago for a guy no longer even in football (i think) 

Smith was benched for Kaepernick... does that mean it’s a wash?  Fuller was a heck of a player and I’m not sure why getting benched your rookie season (coming off a major injury), should be held against him, particularly in light of what he did his next year.  

Edited by skinny21
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Posted (edited)
On 5/23/2018 at 8:34 AM, bedlamVR said:

I think it is cynical to say Alex is here to save Jays job - I think it genuinely was the right move to make when it became clear that Kirk was not going to sign - and that was to go out and get the best QB available at the time. 

 

I get your point.  But that was the same logic when they got for example Jason Taylor years ago.  We had an injury.  Taylor was the best on the market so go get the dude.   You can say ditto acquiring Duckett when Portis got banged up. 

 

When you acquire veterans for draft capital/young player it makes a we are ready to win now statement.  In their defense, according to the beat guys covering the team the FO indeed thinks this is a win now team.  So their actions doesn't contradict this point.  They might be right.  We will find out.  If they are wrong than trading for Alex set the team back. 

 

And none of that is a condemnation of Alex.  I think Alex has what it takes to make the team a playoff team plus (I felt the same way about Kirk, too) but does the rest of the roster have what it takes?  My hunch is no.  But I am not that hard core on that point.  For me this team can go far if it gets certain breaks -- I think Keim said it well recently in an interview that the team isn't per se one of the great teams but one of the what if teams and if the what if stuff breaks right they could be great.   What if Reed is healthy all season along?  What if Holsey or Sandrick do well in the slot?  What if Nicholson mans the free safety spot well by continuing to develop and stays healthy?  If most things come together the team can go far -- if it doesn't they are probably back in the 8-8 range.  I see it in a similar way. 

Edited by Skinsinparadise
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Five teams who could surprise with an NFL Wild Card appearance in 2018

 

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Quarterback Kirk Cousins is out, but despite Cousins making more in Minnesota, the Redskins might actually be better off with Alex Smith after acquiring him from the Kansas City Chiefs via trade. Smith is coming off the highest graded season of his career at 87.2 last season, and has consistently graded at 80.3 or higher every season since 2011. Most impressive last season was how good Smith was throwing the ball downfield, tied for the league lead with 12 touchdowns on throws 20 yards or further downfield. “But Tyreek Hill!” I hear you scream. Yes, Hill helped Smith out, but only six of those deep touchdowns went to Hill as Smith still made plays downfield to other receivers. Furthermore, the Redskins added Paul Richardson, who himself had three deep receiving touchdowns in 2017 and they should have tight end Jordan Reed back healthy. Add in the talents of rookie running back Derrius Guice out of LSU and this offense could take a significant step forwards.

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We didn’t love the value in selecting Da’Ron Payne as high as they did, but he adds strength to their run defense, with 27 tackles resulting in a defensive stop against the run in his final season at Alabama. He rejoins his former teammate Jonathan Allen, who racked up three sacks, three hits and 10 hurries through his first five games before injury ended his rookie season. With more strength up front, the Redskins defense should be expected to improve too.

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Posted (edited)
7 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

I get your point.  But that was the same logic when they got for example Jason Taylor years ago.  We had an injury.  Taylor was the best on the market so go get the dude.   You can say ditto acquiring Duckett when Portis got banged up. 

 

When you acquire veterans for draft capital/young player it makes a we are ready to win now statement.  In their defense, according to the beat guys covering the team the FO indeed thinks this is a win now team.  So their actions doesn't contradict this point.  They might be right.  We will find out.  If they are wrong than trading for Alex set the team back. 

 

And none of that is a condemnation of Alex.  I think Alex has what it takes to make the team a playoff team plus (I felt the same way about Kirk, too) but does the rest of the roster have what it takes?  My hunch is no.  But I am not that hard core on that point.  For me this team can go far if it gets certain breaks -- I think Keim said it well recently in an interview that the team isn't per se one of the great teams but one of the what if teams and if the what if stuff breaks right they could be great.   What if Reed is healthy all season along?  What if Holsey or Sandrick do well in the slot?  What if Nicholson mans the free safety spot well by continuing to develop and stays healthy?  If most things come together the team can go far -- if it doesn't they are probably back in the 8-8 range.  I see it in a similar way. 

 

The thing with Taylor and Duckett is neither of them are QBs .. and I personally think that is the issue QB trumps all . 

 

The best  case scenario may have been the starting QB we had wanted to be here and the team valued him properly ... but that ship sailed ... maybe in 2012 . 

 

And one thing is different this year Compared to the last three treats really is  going forward we know who the QB is ... 

 

And you are right the 9ers did bench Smith for Kap ... but that move was handled terribly. Smith was playing exceptionally well in 2012 when the change happened and the team was 7-1.... and the 9ers didn’t outright bench Smith they used a minor injury as a reason to make the change . 

 

There have been attempts to paint Smith as this washed out has been (or never was) at 34 who the chiefs needed  out of the way - but if Mahomes was so much better how was he not able to get on the field until the meaningless last game of the season?

 

For the record I believe the Chiefs did handle yhings the right way in not throwing the kid to the wolves right away . It made the team play as if they were beloved to be contenders rather than a shield to coddle a newbie with no real shot to go anywhere ... now Mahomes understands the league and what is required week in week out I think he will Benifit and Ried doesn’t need to run his offence with trading wheels on . I kind of hope that is something we aim to do...

 

I also think there are what if questions to be asked about every team . But if our floor is considered around 8-8 and we are a young developing team is that a bad thing ? 

 

It it is when you are on the other side of that cycle where you are 8-8 and you are an older aging team struggling with cap issues that you bring new blood in at QB because you know you are in a situation where you need to refresh the roster and you need to start at the most important position on the field ...

 

and just oust to be clear the most important position on the field is QB .... not slot CB (or DE or RB) 

Also I would like to add I apparently have more faith in the rest of the squad going forward than most 

Edited by bedlamVR

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Posted (edited)
7 hours ago, bedlamVR said:

 

The thing with Taylor and Duckett is neither of them are QBs .. and I personally think that is the issue QB trumps all . 

 

 

I agree with that.  But to me the idea of trading for a 34 year old veteran for draft capital/and a young player -- connotes win now is the operative point.  If they go 8-8 like they did for example when they acquired Jason Taylor -- IMO that wasn't the best move.  Unless it was necessary to keep Dan in the cage.  I can entertain the Dan in the cage theory.

 

7 hours ago, bedlamVR said:

 

 

And one thing is different this year Compared to the last three treats really is  going forward we know who the QB is ... 

 

The movie of lets be competitive right away with a 34 year old QB -- didn't really IMO justify either of the two previous versions of this.  Will see if this one turns differently.  I think Alex is better than the previous 33-34 year old QBs we acquired.  Will see.

 

7 hours ago, bedlamVR said:

 

There have been attempts to paint Smith as this washed out has been (or never was) at 34 who the chiefs needed  out of the way - but if Mahomes was so much better how was he not able to get on the field until the meaningless last game of the season?

 

I don't think Smith is washed out.  But yeah the cap rationale to me is Andy painting a nice brush on it. And I am sure it has some truth to it but it makes no sense that its the full story.  When you make a trade you typically talk up not talk down who you traded and try to put a nice spin on it.  If a team has cap issues, they typically keep the QB over the supporting cast.  So I think some of the comments that some have suggested on this thread as if the Chiefs record was all Alex... to me that's silly.  If that was truly the case Reid would have shed cap space by shaving the supporting cast players not the main dance.  That goes double if Alex was carrying their roster.

 

Andy Reid is all class.  So when he goes multiple times also as part of the soup as to why they acquired Mahomes that Alex isn't getting younger -- I'd gather he meant it.

 

Saying a 34 year old QB is getting to the age where you got to start thinking about grooming a replacement -- that's not exactly radical.  It doesn't mean Alex is washed up, it means that he might not be the peak version of himself for a long time.   

 

7 hours ago, bedlamVR said:

 

I also think there are what if questions to be asked about every team . But if our floor is considered around 8-8 and we are a young developing team is that a bad thing ? 

 

If Jay can turn Cincy into an instant playoff team with a 2nd round pick from the draft -- is it that much of a reach that he can do it with the 13th pick in the draft in arguably according to people like Bruce Arians the richest-deepest QB draft in over 20 years?   Imagine that young roster with a young QB like what the Eagles got cooking?

Edited by Skinsinparadise
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Let’s say Smith was coming off season last year compared to 2 years ago when drafting Pat Mahomes...

 

Do the Chiefs trade up and draft Mahomes?

 

 

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16 minutes ago, wit33 said:

Let’s say Smith was coming off season last year compared to 2 years ago when drafting Pat Mahomes...

 

Do the Chiefs trade up and draft Mahomes?

 

 

I don't think it would change, IMO if your QB is over 33 years old you better be drafting and developing their replacement.

 

The decline in talent/injury is coming, we just don't know how fast it will come.

 

When I look at Alex I see a bridge with benefits.  He's still effective and has a chance to continue to be effective for another couple years so if that happens I think we come out of this perfectly as long as we make the correct choice in the draft on our next rookie QB.

 

Our need for a QB didn't go away, IMO its still top of the list, we just bought some time.

 

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On 23/05/2018 at 7:14 AM, bedlamVR said:

Alex Smith .... Alex smith that is the name of the redskins starting QB .... not that other guy who plays elsewhere . OTAS are about to start the one thing I am looking forward to is actual stability at QB and a leader on the field .

 

Also can we stop changing the narrative as to the cost it took to get him or indeed how much he is costing ..

 

Alex cap hit this season 18.4 million vs 24 for that other guy (rising to 29 and 31 in the next couple of years ) 

 

Smith in essence cost us Fuller - we also gave a 3rd round pick up but actually recouped a third pick for doing not much..... so if you spend a £ and then find a £ are you any worse off than you were ?

 

 

 

Totally agree. The cost is being exaggerated. The third rounder was easily recovered and in essence we took the same player we wanted in round 2 anyway. Smart work, worse case you don't make the trade and we don't take a flyer on the third round tackle. Not much to get worked up about in context to getting a franchise QB in house.

 

The board is in love with the guy picked last in the entire draft and many don't like the value placed on the guy taken in the first round. Settle in the 5th, when he could have gone 2nd, Apke in the 4th when he could have been had in the 6th. The whole draft is so subjective yet the third rounder we gave up was gold dust and a sign of being win now.....

 

Not to mention we've accrued 11 picks for 2019....

 

Fuller, real shame to lose him. Again, I'd suggest he is very replaceable. 

 

I personally see a balanced trade in terms of benefit / cost. Time will tell if that rings true.

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1 hour ago, UK SKINS FAN '74 said:

 

Totally agree. The cost is being exaggerated. The third rounder was easily recovered and in essence we took the same player we wanted in round 2 anyway. Smart work, worse case you don't make the trade and we don't take a flyer on the third round tackle. Not much to get worked up about in context to getting a franchise QB in house.

I can see your point here, but...

much like people referred to the 3rd round comp pick replacing the 3rd we traded away, I just don’t quite see it that way.  We could have had 2 3rds (3 if you count the comp pick, but same difference as we wound up with 2 overall).  Honestly, the 3rd didn’t bother me nearly as much as giving up Fuller.  To me, trading away the pick (another potential Fuller or Moreau) and Fuller is what made this seem like a win now move.  

1 hour ago, UK SKINS FAN '74 said:

 

The board is in love with the guy picked last in the entire draft and many don't like the value placed on the guy taken in the first round. Settle in the 5th, when he could have gone 2nd, Apke in the 4th when he could have been had in the 6th. The whole draft is so subjective yet the third rounder we gave up was gold dust and a sign of being win now.....

 

Not to mention we've accrued 11 picks for 2019....

Yeah, I’m a big fan of how things shook out, both in the draft and comp picks.  FO gets kudos for that, IMO.  

1 hour ago, UK SKINS FAN '74 said:

Fuller, real shame to lose him. Again, I'd suggest he is very replaceable. 

Felt like ages we were without a capable slot corner, and... this statement seems pretty contradictory, no?

1 hour ago, UK SKINS FAN '74 said:

I personally see a balanced trade in terms of benefit / cost. Time will tell if that rings true.

Maybe so (and I sure hope so).  I am anxious to see how the team does... much like last year, it seems better all around than they’ve been in a long time, IMO.  Unlike last year, my optimism is already there.  Last year it took seeing some guys perform (Fuller, Ioannidas, Brown, Swearinger and Nicholson, etc.) before I started buying in.  

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On 25/05/2018 at 1:43 PM, UK SKINS FAN '74 said:

 

Totally agree. The cost is being exaggerated. The third rounder was easily recovered and in essence we took the same player we wanted in round 2 anyway. Smart work, worse case you don't make the trade and we don't take a flyer on the third round tackle. Not much to get worked up about in context to getting a franchise QB in house.

 

The board is in love with the guy picked last in the entire draft and many don't like the value placed on the guy taken in the first round. Settle in the 5th, when he could have gone 2nd, Apke in the 4th when he could have been had in the 6th. The whole draft is so subjective yet the third rounder we gave up was gold dust and a sign of being win now.....

 

Not to mention we've accrued 11 picks for 2019....

 

Fuller, real shame to lose him. Again, I'd suggest he is very replaceable. 

 

I personally see a balanced trade in terms of benefit / cost. Time will tell if that rings true.

Well done!!!

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Posted (edited)
On 5/25/2018 at 1:43 PM, UK SKINS FAN '74 said:

 

Totally agree. The cost is being exaggerated. The third rounder was easily recovered and in essence we took the same player we wanted in round 2 anyway. Smart work, worse case you don't make the trade and we don't take a flyer on the third round tackle. Not much to get worked up about in context to getting a franchise QB in house.

 

Three problems with this argument:

 1. It completely ignores that the team got nothing more for Kirk than a "3rd Rd" comp draft pick - which is actually a 4th rd pick since it's at the end of the 3rd rd, and therefore just barely inside the top 100 or outside - which is a pretty critical cut off in this and most drafts honestly, but this one in particular. And the team would have gotten 4 comp picks any way so all they are really getting out of letting Kirk go is a 3rd vs a 6th - not saying a 3rd isn't more valuable. But they didn't get another pick. Just moved up. I don't mind them letting him go - although I would have rather kept him - but how do you not get almost nothing for a legitimate starting QB? That has to be part of the equation. 

 

2. The team didn't "replace" the 3rd. They had a 3rd rd pick. They traded it away. They had to use other resources to get a different 3rd pick. Since the Alex trade did not net them the 3rd, they could have had 2 3rds. And in this draft getting picks in the top 100 was pretty valuable. Someone tried analogy that if you lose a $1 and then find a $1 are you any worse off? That is a horrible analogy. I am still down $1 as if I had not lost the $1, I would now have $2, double what I started with! 

 

3. I believe you and many are minimizing the loss of Fuller. We have had major problems in the secondary for years - literally years. The only really top quality corner is Norman who the team had to pay huge money in FA for. So it's not just the Fuller was a the top slot corner in football - he is still on his rookie contract for the next two years and was developed in house. It's like as soon as we get something good let's ship them off! Goes the valid argument that this team does not handle prosperity well. Is he replaceable? Of course. Easily? That is a huge stretch considering nothing ever comes easy for this team - but that's another conversation. 

 

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The board is in love with the guy picked last in the entire draft and many don't like the value placed on the guy taken in the first round. Settle in the 5th, when he could have gone 2nd, Apke in the 4th when he could have been had in the 6th. The whole draft is so subjective yet the third rounder we gave up was gold dust and a sign of being win now.....

 

Not to mention we've accrued 11 picks for 2019....

 

I believe you are conflating two issues that do not go together. I agree, the whole value thing is overblown. I was not keen on taking Payne at 13 as I felt there were transformational talent to be had. Either trade down or take one of those guys (I liked Edmunds just as much as James). But once they are on the team, I could care less where they were drafted. And getting a NT was critical to this draft since Hankins apparently wants to be paid like a QB (yes, a bit of exaggeration but you get the point.) Also, I love the man crush on the late rd draft pick. Every year this fan base - especially in ES it seems (and I include myself in this category BTW), falls in love with a late rd draft pick and are certain they are a future pro-bowler. Lache Seastrunk anyone?  :cheers:

 

However, in this draft especially, the top 100 players all have starter potential, more than in most years. That is not just my opinion but also those that have spent a lifetime evaluating players in the NFL. The guys I probably respect most are Bill Polian, Gil Brandt, Dane Brugler, Lance Zierlein and a few others. So having a second 3rd pick greatly increases the odds of finding a starter. 

 

So the reason this feels like a win move, and honestly a bit desperate, is a whole lot more than giving up a 3rd draft pick. The team could have saved the resources and the money they are paying Alex and gone with a rookie QB in the draft. They would have had enough money to get a few other supporting cast members in FA and develop a QB. 

 

Let me be clear here - I am not sure that many who are saying this looks like a win now thing is necessarily saying it's bad. It's not a bad thing unless it does not work. And I think that's what most people are concerned with. If you don't invest in the long term future at QB you have to win now, especially when you give up resources to make the trade. If we go through the next 3 yrs with Alex and stay around 8-8, was it worth it? Not for me. I would have rather gone with Colt, had a solid 2-14 record and take the top QB coming out of college in 2019. But that's just me. I get there are no guarantees.  

 

But now that we are here, I hope Alex can take this team to the next level. Much of that is on the coaches and FO. They have to get more talent here - and I think they have. To their credit, I think the FO did their best job this year of self scouting and really addressing key areas of weakness. That can only help Alex and the team as a whole. I am honestly more upbeat about the roster than some. But I am not letting myself get too excited just yet though. I have been kicked in the teeth too many times by this team. As the season gets closer I may not be able to help myself as I really do like a lot of the things that have been done this.

 

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Fuller, real shame to lose him. Again, I'd suggest he is very replaceable. 

 

See above. 

 

Quote

 

I personally see a balanced trade in terms of benefit / cost. Time will tell if that rings true.

 

I was not and am not totally down on the trade and said so the day it happened. They got a legitimate NFL caliber starting QB for a 3rd draft pick and a truly solid CB. The team did not get fleeced for once. But you can't just look at this in a vacuum. There are so many other moving parts that make this a suspect move. Losing Kirk for almost nothing is probably the most egregious part for me. Had they say at least gotten a 2nd rd draft pick this year and another late rd pick, or even the 3rd they spent for Alex and a late rd draft pick, out of him leaving the team, this looks a whole lot different - a whole lot different, at least for me. And I would have preferred they find a way not to lose one of the best defensive players on the team last year. 

 

Time will tell. I do like Alex. So this has nothing to do with him. I am excited to see how he does in Jay's offence. I think some of what kept Alex back in KC and SF before that was the offense - similar to Jays but Jay's is more wide open and attacking down field when he has the horses. If the run game is much improved - Man I love me some Guice! - and the D gets to just average which they have a very good chance after plugging up the middle - this team will surprise the pundits who are convinced this is a last place team.  

 

As an aside, I predict Settle will get more playing time that people think he will. A front 3 of Payne, Allen and Iaon/Settle will make running on this team very difficult. Then a pass rush front 4 of Iaon, Settle, Payne and Allen could be truly nasty! I expect to see RK and PS get more sacks and hurries this year because of it. See, I am letting myself get carried away! 

 

Carolina and Giants 2016 so no POs! Giants 2017 so no POs! Ok, back in line again! I will wait till getting too excited. :kickcan:

Edited by goskins10
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I am not interested in having a "Who is Better" debate (....yet) but reports out of the OTA's are at least showing that Alex Smith is doing some things that Cousin doesn't, or at least things he seemed more timid to do.  Some of these things Kirk worked on in 2017 and improved a little, but still overall left to be desired.

 

Smith is showing to be decisive, also he is almost forcing the trust issue with WRs, throwing the ball to space where they need to be able to get to instead of waiting around for them to get there.  He is also throwing passes that allow the players to go out and make plays.  

 

The first thing, about throwing the ball to space, that small difference can make a huge difference when it comes to YAC.  Ideally you want players to catch these kind of routes running full speed so the catch itself is not slowing them down.  If you don't have the trust in the WRs or are just too worried about what *might* happen...you tend to hold the ball a smidgen too long and it ends up possibly still a completion but you lose out on the bigger play potential. Or worst case scenario the pass is broken up (or worse).

 

Again, I am not here to make any grand proclamations about Alex Smith, it is more about having a QB that does some of the things we constantly harped on wanting Cousins to do/improve on. 

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On 30/05/2018 at 1:39 PM, goskins10 said:

Three problems with this argument:

 

My point was specifically on the cost of getting Smith. When people say we did well drafting Kirk in the 4th round, you don't detract from that value by saying, yes but look at all of the picks blow on RG3.

 

Bringing Kirk into it shifts the conversation. The trade for Smith was good value. I also like the fact we have Smith, Paul Richardson and Zach Brown hitting this years cap for the equivalent cap hit Kirk would have been, within circa 1m. That's value.

 

I agree on the 3rd rounder statement, although in my opinion, if we still had our original 3rd I suspect the FO may have been less aggressive in trading back in the second. 

 

Regarding Fuller, again Time will tell. No doubt he was emerging as a very good slot corner. That loss, or lack of, will become apparent quite quickily into the season.

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4 hours ago, UK SKINS FAN '74 said:

 

My point was specifically on the cost of getting Smith. When people say we did well drafting Kirk in the 4th round, you don't detract from that value by saying, yes but look at all of the picks blow on RG3.

 

Bringing Kirk into it shifts the conversation. The trade for Smith was good value. I also like the fact we have Smith, Paul Richardson and Zach Brown hitting this years cap for the equivalent cap hit Kirk would have been, within circa 1m. That's value.

 

I agree on the 3rd rounder statement, although in my opinion, if we still had our original 3rd I suspect the FO may have been less aggressive in trading back in the second. 

 

Regarding Fuller, again Time will tell. No doubt he was emerging as a very good slot corner. That loss, or lack of, will become apparent quite quickily into the season.

 

That is exactly my point though. You can't look at the two separately. Alex Smith is not replacing Robert who is long gone so of course that would not be relevant. But they had to make the trade for Alex directly to replace Kirk. So it all becomes part of the equation. It's the same with the 3rd rounder and Fuller. It is all part of the equation and how you have to evaluate the the trade.

 

But it is done now. And again I do not hate the trade itself - as far as Alex being here. And it appears they are starting to collect some talent. Is it enough? We will find out in September. I like what I am hearing from the guys so far. But it is typically roses and cream when there are no pads, no rush, no opposition :-)  I will get more excited when TC gets here and they start hitting each other.

 

On a somewhat different topic:

@Skinsinparadise brought up Cooley mentioning they are getting "good" talent but not "great" talent. While I agree, I am not sure I can blame the FO that much for that. Knowing which guys are going to turn into truly greats is anything but a science. To be fair it seems to be as much luck as anything. How many "sure fire HOFer's" coming out of college fulfilled that promise? Very few - especially once you get outside the top 4 or 5 picks each year. If the 10 teams that picked before JJ Watt knew he was going to be what he is, all 10 - including us who traded down - would have taken him first. But at the time, he was another stud prospect but no one knew what he would become. Anyone who says they "knew" is quite frankly full of ****. They may have felt like it but no one on the planet "knew" to a certainty. BTW: I still liked us trading down. So not a backhanded slam there. 

 

As I said in another thread I have been kicked in the teeth by this team so many times I am a bit reticent to let myself get too excited. But I am sure as the season approaches I will fall more and more prey to the hype and get excited. I wish I would not. But it's destined to happen.  :hitfan:

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, goskins10 said:

 

On a somewhat different topic:

@Skinsinparadise brought up Cooley mentioning they are getting "good" talent but not "great" talent. While I agree, I am not sure I can blame the FO that much for that. Knowing which guys are going to turn into truly greats is anything but a science. To be fair it seems to be as much luck as anything. How many "sure fire HOFer's" coming out of college fulfilled that promise? Very few - especially once you get outside the top 4 or 5 picks each year. If the 10 teams that picked before JJ Watt knew he was going to be what he is, all 10 - including us who traded down - would have taken him first. But at the time, he was another stud prospect but no one knew what he would become. Anyone who says they "knew" is quite frankly full of ****. They may have felt like it but no one on the planet "knew" to a certainty. BTW: I still liked us trading down. So not a backhanded slam there. 

 

As I said in another thread I have been kicked in the teeth by this team so many times I am a bit reticent to let myself get too excited. But I am sure as the season approaches I will fall more and more prey to the hype and get excited. I wish I would not. But it's destined to happen.  :hitfan:

 

I get your point and I agree with the premise of the point -- you can't predict it in advance, luck is involved.  But isn't that the case with all talent evaluation?   Nothing is set out in stone for you in advance. 

 

And there is some method to the madness to the approach.  That's when we get the high ceiling -- high floor type of conversations.  Lets take Edmunds and D. James.  Their draft rap is if they reach their potential they have the makings of being beasts.  Their measurables are insane and have jaw dropping plays.  For Edmunds to be 20 years old and be that size and can run that fast -- wow.   Can they be busts?  Sure.  But I think there is a method to the madness of going for some of the higher end talent and factoring rawness/risk and the whole nine yards.

 

You can argue back that they took Payne because of potential, too.  His stats aren't hot.  But what if the Georgia game is who this dude really is?

 

Shanny actually talked about his approach to the draft which is to look at the players best plays -- them playing at their peak.  And in turn thinking he can coach that to be more consistent at the NFL level.   Shanny took Trent over Okung even though Okung was regarded by many draft geeks as the better/more polished player.  Heck I recall Gil Brandt saying on the radio to some Redskins executive why did you take Trent when Okung was the second coming of Chris Samuels.  Trent was sort of the LT version of Edmonds -- for a guy that size the dude could really move -- special measurables.

 

I recall hearing later that RG3 lobbied Shanny to take Terrance Williams but Shanny told him he preferred Jordan Reed and showed him why on tape.

 

To use a baseball analogy, if you got a guy with a live arm and can throw it 98 miles an hour.  Yeah he might be a bust but if you got it right you are much more likely to find the elite guy.

 

It's my complaint about this team really more though about FA.  For example, Calais Campbell -- the dude is a monster.  Elite talent.  The Jags, Vikings among others have been shopping at the higher end stores and its mostly worked out for him.  As for 20/20 hindsight, I was among the people clamoring to both draft Calais and sign him later as a FA.  I was among the ones who wanted L. Joseph that the Vikings signed in FA and is one of the elite run stoppers in the league.  I wanted Sheldon Richardson -- Vikings signed him this time.  We will see how that goes.   But I like getting the mega talented guy and it doesn't have to be Vinny style with mega guarantees.  Richardson just got 1 year.  Calais 2 years in guarantees. 

 

As Parcells likes to say even the best GMs are wrong at least half the time.  We are all wrong plenty.  So I am not trying to pretend I am a scout.  But just watching Calais for a full season on the Cardinals Amazon series you can see the dude is a big time leader/great guy and can take over games.   You don't need a psychology degree to know the dude would be no Haynesworth if he was signed here. 

Edited by Skinsinparadise

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39 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

I get your point and I agree with the premise of the point -- you can't predict it in advance, luck is involved.  But isn't that the case with all talent evaluation?   Nothing is set out in stone for you in advance. 

 

And there is some method to the madness to the approach.  That's when we get the high ceiling -- high floor type of conversations.  Lets take Edmunds and D. James.  Their draft rap is if they reach their potential they have the makings of being beasts.  Their measurables are insane and have jaw dropping plays.  For Edmunds to be 20 years old and be that size and can run that fast -- wow.   Can they be busts?  Sure.  But I think there is a method to the madness of going for some of the higher end talent and factoring rawness/risk and the whole nine yards.

 

You can argue back that they took Payne because of potential, too.  His stats aren't hot.  But what if the Georgia game is who this dude really is?

 

Shanny actually talked about his approach to the draft which is to look at the players best plays -- them playing at their peak.  And in turn thinking he can coach that to be more consistent at the NFL level.   Shanny took Trent over Okung even though Okung was regarded by many draft geeks as the better/more polished player.  Heck I recall Gil Brandt saying on the radio to some Redskins executive why did you take Trent when Okung was the second coming of Chris Samuels.  Trent was sort of the LT version of Edmonds -- for a guy that size the dude could really move -- special measurables.

 

I recall hearing later that RG3 lobbied Shanny to take Terrance Williams but Shanny told him he preferred Jordan Reed and showed him why on tape.

 

To use a baseball analogy, if you got a guy with a live arm and can throw it 98 miles an hour.  Yeah he might be a bust but if you got it right you are much more likely to find the elite guy.

 

It's my complaint about this team really more though about FA.  For example, Calais Campbell -- the dude is a monster.  Elite talent.  The Jags, Vikings among others have been shopping at the higher end stores and its mostly worked out for him.  As for 20/20 hindsight, I was among the people clamoring to both draft Calais and sign him later as a FA.  I was among the ones who wanted L. Joseph that the Vikings signed in FA and is one of the elite run stoppers in the league.  I wanted Sheldon Richardson -- Vikings signed him this time.  We will see how that goes.   But I like getting the mega talented guy and it doesn't have to be Vinny style with mega guarantees.  Richardson just got 1 year.  Calais 2 years in guarantees. 

 

As Parcells likes to say even the best GMs are wrong at least half the time.  We are all wrong plenty.  So I am not trying to pretend I am a scout.  But just watching Calais for a full season on the Cardinals Amazon series you can see the dude is a big time leader/great guy and can take over games.   You don't need a psychology degree to know the dude would be no Haynesworth if he was signed here. 

 

 

I don't disagree with what you have here and have said most of it myself at one time or another. But in the end the whole draft is the more you have the better your chances. My point was dinging the FO because the top talent didn't turn into total studs is a bit unfair. That's all i was saying. 

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On 5/25/2018 at 3:12 PM, skinny21 said:

 

Felt like ages we were without a capable slot corner, and... this statement seems pretty contradictory, no?

 

 

Good post, but I want to address just the Fuller/slot corner argument...

 

Fuller was horrendous (and a big contributor to our lack of a capable slot corner) in his rookie season and took a major step forward in 2017. Great on him for putting the work in and developing, but I think it also speaks to the coaching. It wouldn't surprise me at all to see one of our younger CBs make a similar leap forward this year. Dunbar, Moreau, Holsey...what we don't know is if the staff's confidence in one or more of these guys (maybe a very similar confidence that they had in Fuller after HIS bad rookie season) gave them the confidence to trade away a known commodity to net a QB. 

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1 hour ago, goskins10 said:

 

 

I don't disagree with what you have here and have said most of it myself at one time or another. But in the end the whole draft is the more you have the better your chances. My point was dinging the FO because the top talent didn't turn into total studs is a bit unfair. That's all i was saying. 

Agree 100% about more chances = better odds to land talent.

 

As for criticism of them not landing top talent its more directed to FA where their approach seems to be mostly to mitigte risk by bargain shopping. And IMO they have played FA mostly poorly under Bruce's reign. Though they avoided disaster signings. That part is good. Id give their FA approach a D+. Vinny gets an F.

 

As for the draft, I think they are good at it but not great until i start seeing them at least on occasion pull an elite player.

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, TD_washingtonredskins said:

 

Good post, but I want to address just the Fuller/slot corner argument...

 

Fuller was horrendous (and a big contributor to our lack of a capable slot corner) in his rookie season and took a major step forward in 2017. Great on him for putting the work in and developing, but I think it also speaks to the coaching. It wouldn't surprise me at all to see one of our younger CBs make a similar leap forward this year. Dunbar, Moreau, Holsey...what we don't know is if the staff's confidence in one or more of these guys (maybe a very similar confidence that they had in Fuller after HIS bad rookie season) gave them the confidence to trade away a known commodity to net a QB. 

Thanks. :)

 

Yeah, I think it was a combo of factors for Fuller.  I would say the addition of Gray definitely helped.

 

However, because he was coached by Gray in College, I’m not sure it would have been as big of a change than these others areas (I could be wrong of course):  1) health - I think he regained his burst (and confidence), which is a big part of why we saw him better able to break on passes and stick with generally shifty slot receivers.  2) Pass rush - I’ve seen us ranked as high as #2 in pass rush last year.  3) Comfort - understanding the League better, his teammates better and how to prepare himself.  4) Scheme - the change from Barry to Manusky probably can’t be overstated in general, and likely helped Fuller.  

 

The great news, as you allude to, is that all of those factors apply to Moreau as well, and all but health apply to Dunbar.  More specifically to our slot corner, the coaching, comfort level, and pass rush can/should all help Holsey, Stroman and Scandrick as well.  

 

Edit:  One I didn’t mention was the addition of a (good) FS in Nicholson. Yes, he missed an unfortunate amount of time, but trust in your deep help can’t hurt for a corner. 

Edited by skinny21
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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

Agree 100% about more chances = better odds to land talent.

 

As for criticism of them not landing top talent its more directed to FA where their approach seems to be mostly to mitigte risk by bargain shopping. And IMO they have played FA mostly poorly under Bruce's reign. Though they avoided disaster signings. That part is good. Id give their FA approach a D+. Vinny gets an F.

 

As for the draft, I think they are good at it but not great until i start seeing them at least on occasion pull an elite player.

 

 

This is the only place we disagree - and it's only slightly. I am not sure you can say they are not great at picking players yet because none of them have turned elite. All you can do is keep picking good players that have a chance and then it's up to so many things that are out of the FO control that I just have a hard time dinging them for not - IMO - getting lucky and a player or two being better than really good and turning into an elite player. We will see. I am really hoping that a few of the players in the last few drafts turn into elite players. 

 

As for FA, I agree and believe we have had this discussion before. I like that they are not going cray but they need to spend some money. Even GB, who has been notorious for not spending money of FAs, has started to loosen the spending some. I think it was @thesubmittedone who mentioned a few well placed FAs and the draft would have been more wide open. But at the same time i do get being careful. But like you, TSO and others, I think the pendulum has swung too for the other way. 

 

 

Edited by goskins10
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5 minutes ago, goskins10 said:

 

 

This is the only place we disagree - and it's only slightly. I am not sure you can say they are poor at picking players because none of them have turned elite.

 

I agree with your point.  But where did I say they are poor at picking players because none of them have turned elite?

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Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

I agree with your point.  But where did I say they are poor at picking players because none of them have turned elite?

 

Sorry, the use of "poor" was well poor....  I mean to say they are not great yet. My mistake.  I will correct.  

 

Edit: It is corrected!!  :cheers:

 

Edited by goskins10

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Posted (edited)
20 minutes ago, goskins10 said:

 

Sorry, the use of "poor" was well poor....  I mean to say they are not great yet. My mistake.  I will correct.  

 

Edit: It is corrected!!  :cheers:

 

 

OK, thanks.  I think where we differ is this.  And correct me I am wrong.

 

Your theory:  The way to play the draft is to accrue as many picks as you can and land as many talented players as you can.  As for elite players, that's part of the crap shoot process -- its almost impossible to predict which of the good players emerge as elite guys.  So you can't fault them for that.  If they accrue the picks and keep finding good talent -- the elite guys will come eventually but you don't fault them for not pulling it off thus far.

 

My theory:  I agree its about accruing picks and finding talent.  And its no small measure to find good players in the draft.  That's why I think they are good at finding talent in the draft.  However, I do think there is an art to scoping out potential elite players from the good/very good.  I don't think for example its a coincidence that the Steelers are really good at finding very good offensive players including elite guys.  I'd like to see them find a Julio Jones, Beckham, V. Miller, L. Bell or going back further M. Straham, Ed Reed types. 

 

I recall ESPN ran a special about the Giants scouts the year they took Beckham and how they arrived that the dude is really special.   I've heard different personnel people interviewed on the subject who talk about how some teams' approach in the draft is to play the higher floor drill because they are less likely to be disappointed and some have more of a go for broke approach.    

 

I don't discount the randomness of the draft.  I don't even disagree that if you keep finding good talent and accrue multiple picks that based on the law of averages your day will come and find a great one or two.   Where I think we depart is I do think there is a method to the madness of scoping out the elite from the good -- I am not saying there is a fool proof formula for it -- I am saying there is an art to it.  And I am not suggesting Kyle Smith doesn't have that ability.  He's only had two drafts and its possible one of these guys emerges as elite -- if I had to pick two guys it would be Jonathan Allen and Derrius Guice.  Will see. 

Edited by Skinsinparadise

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