PleaseBlitz

Election 2018 Thread

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All elections for 2017 are in the books and you've had one day to celebrate (or mourn, I guess) the Alabama Senate special election.

 

Time to turn our collective attention to the 2018 races.  Here is the docket:

 

House

 

All 435 voting seats in the United States House of Representatives will be up for election.  Prior to the general 2018 election, there will be (as of now) three special elections to replace John Conyers ((D)Michigan, sexual assault), Pat Tiberi ((R)Ohio, not sure) and Tim Murphy ((R) Pennsylvania, extreme creepiness).  These will probably happen in the first quarter of 2018.

 

House currently stands at 239 R to 193 D.  Dems need to pick up 25 to gain the gavel.  Here is some analysis:

 

Partisan Gerrymandering and the Outlook for the 2018 U.S. House Elections

 

Special Elections So Far Point To A Democratic Wave In 2018

 

Senate

 

33 seats in Senate Class I (elected in 2012) will be up for election. Additionally, special elections may be held to fill vacancies in AZ (Flake), TN (Corker) and MN (Stewart Smalley). 

 

Senate is currently 51-49.  8 Rs and 24 Ds are up for election.  Dems need to pick up 2 seats.  Basically, they need to defend all 24 seats and win in AZ and NV.  

 

States

 

Critically, the 2018 state elections will impact the redistricting that will follow the 2020 United States Census, as many states task governors and state legislators with drawing new boundaries for state legislative and Congressional districts.  

 

Elections will be held for the governorships of 36 U.S. states and 87 of the 99 state legislative chambers are holding regularly-scheduled elections in 2018.

 

2018 Governor Race Ratings (Kind of Old)

 

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I live in Florida.  I doubt I will vote for any GOP.  I will have to decide between write-in/3rd party or just voting straight Dem just to piss my former party off.  I WILL NOT vote for any incumbent GOP though, that I promise. 

 

EDIT:  Technically I don't live in FL but I'm voting there via absentee.  which means it will probably just get thrown away.

Edited by TheGreatBuzz
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My congresscritter is resigning, maybe we can elect a Republican or Libertarian for a change.

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8 hours ago, PleaseBlitz said:

All elections for 2017 are in the books and you've had one day to celebrate (or mourn, I guess) the Alabama Senate special election.

 

Time to turn our collective attention to the 2018 races.  Here is the docket:

 

House

 

All 435 voting seats in the United States House of Representatives will be up for election.  Prior to the general 2018 election, there will be (as of now) three special elections to replace John Conyers ((D)Michigan, sexual assault), Pat Tiberi ((R)Ohio, not sure) and Tim Murphy ((R) Pennsylvania, extreme creepiness).  These will probably happen in the first quarter of 2018.

 

House currently stands at 239 R to 193 D.  Dems need to pick up 25 to gain the gavel.  Here is some analysis:

 

Partisan Gerrymandering and the Outlook for the 2018 U.S. House Elections

 

Special Elections So Far Point To A Democratic Wave In 2018

 

Senate

 

33 seats in Senate Class I (elected in 2012) will be up for election. Additionally, special elections may be held to fill vacancies in AZ (Flake), TN (Corker) and MN (Stewart Smalley). 

 

Senate is currently 51-49.  8 Rs and 24 Ds are up for election.  Dems need to pick up 2 seats.  Basically, they need to defend all 24 seats and win in AZ and NV.  

 

States

 

Critically, the 2018 state elections will impact the redistricting that will follow the 2020 United States Census, as many states task governors and state legislators with drawing new boundaries for state legislative and Congressional districts.  

 

Elections will be held for the governorships of 36 U.S. states and 87 of the 99 state legislative chambers are holding regularly-scheduled elections in 2018.

 

2018 Governor Race Ratings (Kind of Old)

 

The House Special Elections point to a wave????  Not saying there aren't lots of indicators of a wave but the House Special elections aren't one of them.

 

Re Senate - Flake and Corker are not running for reelection in 2018 nor have they resigned  - so no special elections for those two. There will be a Special Election for Minnesota.

 

 

Edited by nonniey

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2018 definitely impacts 2020.  Renamed my 2020 thread.

 

Election 2020 - All Things Thread

 

The Dems need to win at least one branch of congress. House seems most likely in 2018.  If there's a wave, I think they buck the odds and wins the Senate also.

The focus in 2018 also needs to be state and local.  Midterms are when there are the most governorships at stake. Also, the Dems needs to win control of some state legislatures. You don't the GOP to control the redistricting.

Also, I think it's vital Dems win one branch of congress; so they can ensure Trump doesn't screw with the 2020 census. 

 

The day after the 2018 election, those prospective Democratic candidates are heading towards Iowa, New Hampshire, etc...

 

I think there will be a wave in 2018.

 

If the Dems win full control, are they going straight towards impeachment in 2019? Or will they try to make some deals, with the so called dealmaker?

 

Will the Dems follow the 2006 path and let their be different type of candidates running as Dems?  Having maybe a little more moderate running in Red states? Or is the Bernie wing, going to demand all the 2018 candidates being Bernie clones?  How many GOPers does Bannon actually primary?  Will the GOP candidates be full of Roy Moores and Todd Akins?

 

Bring on 2018. I also wonder, if anyone else will announce for 2020 next year. We already have 2.

 

 

Edited by Rdskns2000
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Senate seems so hard. They'd basically have to pitch a perfect game. Are Democrats capable of that? I've never seen them do it. They're more the Bad News Bears than the 85 Bears. Still, if we look at how bad Congress has become and how much worse they plan to be if the Tea Party/Trump/Bannon wings get any momentum...

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11 hours ago, PleaseBlitz said:

All elections for 2017 are in the books and you've had one day to celebrate (or mourn, I guess) the Alabama Senate special election.

 

Time to turn our collective attention to the 2018 races.  Here is the docket:

 

House

 

All 435 voting seats in the United States House of Representatives will be up for election.  Prior to the general 2018 election, there will be (as of now) three special elections to replace John Conyers ((D)Michigan, sexual assault), Pat Tiberi ((R)Ohio, not sure) and Tim Murphy ((R) Pennsylvania, extreme creepiness).  These will probably happen in the first quarter of 2018.

 

The idiot GOP Michigan governor says he won't have a special election for Conyers seat until Election Day 2018. Don't know if that's changed, but last I heard that was his plan.  

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6 hours ago, Burgold said:

Senate seems so hard. They'd basically have to pitch a perfect game. Are Democrats capable of that? I've never seen them do it. They're more the Bad News Bears than the 85 Bears. Still, if we look at how bad Congress has become and how much worse they plan to be if the Tea Party/Trump/Bannon wings get any momentum...

Well you also have the Bannon plan that could help which really is designed (even if not intended) to hand the Senate and House to the Dems.  Depends on how damaged he is from this week on how successful he will be in that plan. 

6 hours ago, Rdskns2000 said:

The idiot GOP Michigan governor says he won't have a special election for Conyers seat until Election Day 2018. Don't know if that's changed, but last I heard that was his plan.  

Why is that idiotic? Just curious? (Btw I believe that is more the norm than the exception when it comes to House seats).

Edited by nonniey

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I will say the one issue that will keep me from voting D is their stance on gun control.  I am fine with certain increased controls but I find that most D candidates take a pretty hard line on this issue to pander to the further left to get their vote.  I think more moderate stances on certain issues may lose them some of the far left votes but will gain them more with people like me.

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http://inthesetimes.com/article/20765/roy-moore-doug-jones-alabama-bannon-gop-2018-trump

 

Quote

The headache for the GOP, broadly, is the party’s moral hollowness and ideological bankruptcy. Republicans essentially have nothing to offer anyone who isn’t wealthy or a far-right ideologue. With the knives out and Bannon and the establishment at war over the future of the party, that’s becoming harder to disguise.

In Alabama, for example, one-party Republican rule is a long, sorry tale of economic stagnation. The state’s per household income is about $11,000 below the national median, and 17 percent of residents live in poverty. That’s the fifth-highest rate in the nation, according to a recent report in the New York Times.

Maybe the greatest lesson of the Alabama election is that Democrats can compete and win when their voting base has good reasons to turn out. Jones won largely because of an unexpected boost from the state’s black residents, and black women in particular—traditionally the core constituency of the Democratic Party. Despite the state’s harsh voter ID laws, 96 percent of African-American voters went for Jones, and they accounted for 30 percent of the electorate—far exceeding expectations.  

Trump and the GOP’s populist act, meanwhile, is wearing thin, even among the evangelical Christians who form the Republican Party’s base. A Pew Research Center poll released earlier this month showed that Trump’s approval among white evangelicals has fallen 17 points (from 78 to 61 percent) since February.

 

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Barbara Comstock, whose district is basically Loudoun county, is arguably the most vulnerable incumbant. Like 8 people have declared for the D primary, and they all have better credentials than her. Loudoun went extremely heavily for Northam, so Comstock has recently been trying to be seen doing bipartisan things. She cowardly came out against Obamacare repeal the second it was clear that it didnt matter any more. She is the worst and I look forward to her losing. 

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/right-turn/wp/2017/11/30/comstock-cant-promise-what-her-voters-want-to-hear/?utm_term=.f450f4c82e63

 

 

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23 hours ago, Springfield said:

For the good of the country, we need Dems to win both the house and the senate.  Best of luck to them.

No.  Assuming Trump isn’t impeached or resigns, a unified Democratic Congress almost ensures a GOP presidential win in 2020. 

 

Trmup would run on “obstructionist Democrats!” and he’d probably win.  

 

1 house of congress needs to flip.  That prevents any more stupidity.  

 

But it both might not be as good as you think.

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11 minutes ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

No.  Assuming Trump isn’t impeached or resigns, a unified Democratic Congress almost ensures a GOP presidential win in 2020.

I'm not seeing it. Trump would run on some stupid **** like that no matter what the circumstances.

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5 hours ago, Sacks 'n' Stuff said:

I'm not seeing it. Trump would run on some stupid **** like that no matter what the circumstances.

 

That dumb mother****er will still be running MAGA and all his idiot acolytes will still be eating it up.

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15 hours ago, PleaseBlitz said:

Correction:  11 people are running for the Democratic nomination to unseat Comstock. 

 

https://ballotpedia.org/Virginia's_10th_Congressional_District

 

 

Comstock is vulnerable. But should have been last time too. More than the candidate strengths, the critical thing is the "get out the vote" effort. Even with a bozo the clown white supremacist in the White House and armed Nazis with torches marching in the streets of Virginia and killing a protestor, barely 50% chose to vote in November. And that was with a fairly extensive ground game. Still the dems are disorganized. I had three knocks on the door for Northam, and they were surprise that we'd already had a visit.

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22 hours ago, TheGreatBuzz said:

I will say the one issue that will keep me from voting D is their stance on gun control.  I am fine with certain increased controls but I find that most D candidates take a pretty hard line on this issue to pander to the further left to get their vote.  I think more moderate stances on certain issues may lose them some of the far left votes but will gain them more with people like me.

 

I think you'll find the DP's positions on gun control issues to be mainstream.  http://www.ontheissues.org/celeb/democratic_party_gun_control.htm

 

That's not totally up to date, but it's a brief explanation of their position.  Democrats are for common sense reforms, the two biggest of which are to close the gun show loophole and mandate a system of background checks for all gun sales, including private party.  Following that, the next step would be to find ways to limit magazine capacity and rate of fire by doing things like banning bump stocks and placing limits on magazine size.

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31 minutes ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

I think you'll find the DP's positions on gun control issues to be mainstream.  http://www.ontheissues.org/celeb/democratic_party_gun_control.htm

 

That's not totally up to date, but it's a brief explanation of their position.  Democrats are for common sense reforms, the two biggest of which are to close the gun show loophole and mandate a system of background checks for all gun sales, including private party.  Following that, the next step would be to find ways to limit magazine capacity and rate of fire by doing things like banning bump stocks and placing limits on magazine size.

I see people when campaigning usually going further left than that.  But even the what you have said and what I read on the site I have issues with some, though some I support.  Magazine limits for example I am mostly against.  I could agree to a limit of 30 maybe.  But I really don't see magazine size as solving much other than letting Dems pat themselves on the back.  Also, from the site:

 

"like reinstating the assault weapons ban "  This was the dumbest thing ever.  It's just about scary looking guns.  But I also think it is supported by people who don't know much about guns (no offense meant).

 

" mandatory child safety locks"  sounds good but impossible to enforce.  A law just to pat themselves on the back.

 

"gun safety test to buy a new handgun" I would need more details on this.  I'm for a reasonable test but could also see this used to an unreasonable level to prevent people from being able to carry.  See what MD has done with their "need to carry" requirement.

 

Also, just looking at Democrat states gun laws (CA and MD for example) makes me not like the DP platform regarding the 2nd.  Loosen that up and they are more likely to get my vote.  I could be talked into the rest of the stuff though.  That to me is the difference between a Left gun platform and a Centrist one.  And I think the Left could get a lot more votes if they were more centrist.  All of us that are mildly conservative but embarrassed by the GOP.

 

Anyways, we don't need to get into the finer points of gun control here as this isn't the right thread for that.  I'm just showing what I think the DP could do to get a lot of people like me to their side.  And that is what they need if they really want to crush the GOP.  Show that they can make it about more than turnout but actually taking voters.

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The issue of gun control has roughly equal influence for gun control advocates and NRA types. So Democrats abandoning the issue would not be good for them. 

 

http://news.gallup.com/poll/220748/gun-control-remains-important-factor-voters.aspx

 

In any event, a particular candidate’s policy on gums is going to vary greatly by geography. Roy Moore couldn’t attack Doug Jones on guns effectively because Jones has never supported any additional gun control measures. 

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On 12/15/2017 at 9:47 AM, nonniey said:

Why is that idiotic? Just curious? (Btw I believe that is more the norm than the exception when it comes to House seats).

Leaving the seat open for nearly a year? That's leaving that district without representation for a long time.  If that was a district that was majority GOP, they would probably have a special election sooner.

 

The could have the election when the primaries were held.  

 

11 hours ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

No.  Assuming Trump isn’t impeached or resigns, a unified Democratic Congress almost ensures a GOP presidential win in 2020. 

 

Trmup would run on “obstructionist Democrats!” and he’d probably win.  

 

1 house of congress needs to flip.  That prevents any more stupidity.  

 

But it both might not be as good as you think.

Not necessarily.   Who knows what Trump runs as in 2020.  If he has a full Dem congress, maybe he wheels and deals.  The guy has no ideology, other than love of himself.  

Edited by Rdskns2000

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36 minutes ago, PleaseBlitz said:

The issue of gun control has roughly equal influence for gun control advocates and NRA types. So Democrats abandoning the issue would not be good for them. 

 

http://news.gallup.com/poll/220748/gun-control-remains-important-factor-voters.aspx

 

 

And that is why I'm not suggesting abandoning the issue, just softening the stance.  Many pro-gun people I know, and me personally, support stronger common sense restrictions.  Pretty much all the stuff I didn't call out in the last post were things that most of us support.  And it would still be additional gun control so no reason for Dem voters to get upset. 

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