Predictions for Doctson

[mistertim]

8 hours ago, thesubmittedone said:

 

Yes. And it's still a great comp.  

 

Only thing about Doctson vs Robinson that concerns me a bit is size. Robinson is around 220 and (as far as the combine and last year) Doctson is bit over 200 (202 at the combine IIRC) at about the same height which is pretty lanky for a 6'2 guy. I just worry about him being able to absorb hits consistently in the NFL. Maybe he's put on some size though.

[XxSpearheadxX]

2 hours ago, mistertim said:

 I just worry about him being able to absorb hits consistently in the NFL. Maybe he's put on some size though.

This definitely was what kept him out of the top 15 last year and is a legit knock on him, especially considering he excels at catching contested balls at their highest point where he is exposed. He's been pretty rugged though throughout his college career though. Definitely something to watch

[TSO]

2 hours ago, mistertim said:

 

Only thing about Doctson vs Robinson that concerns me a bit is size. Robinson is around 220 and (as far as the combine and last year) Doctson is bit over 200 (202 at the combine IIRC) at about the same height which is pretty lanky for a 6'2 guy. I just worry about him being able to absorb hits consistently in the NFL. Maybe he's put on some size though.

 

Sure, but then that's what might be the reason he edges out Robinson in virtually everything else athletically. Jumps higher, more explosive, faster long speed, etc... 

 

Plus he's got bigger hands. 

 

So it evens out. 

 

But I don't put much into that because, even with the weight difference, their builds are actually similar. Robinson doesn't look that much thicker, somehow. 

 

I wouldn't be surprised if Doctson put on some weight, as well. I remember it being talked about a couple months ago. He looked bigger in a pic he posted. Being off his Achilles likely forced him to work on his upper body more. 

[mistertim]

6 minutes ago, thesubmittedone said:

 

Sure, but then that's what might be the reason he edges out Robinson in virtually everything else athletically. Jumps higher, more explosive, faster long speed, etc... 

 

Plus he's got bigger hands. 

 

So it evens out. 

 

But I don't put much into that because, even with the weight difference, their builds are actually similar. Robinson doesn't look that much thicker, somehow. 

 

I wouldn't be surprised if Doctson put on some weight, as well. I remember it being talked about a couple months ago. He looked bigger in a pic he posted. Being off his Achilles likely forced him to work on his upper body more. 

 

That's all true. I wasn't necessarily saying it made Robinson better than him, just something I worry about since, as @XxSpearheadxXnoted, he is a jump ball guy that can make ridiculous catches, but that also tends to leave those guys exposed to big hits. There's no doubt that they have most of the exact same skill sets, with Doctson's measurables being even better...vertical, broad, 3 cone, shuttles, hand size, you name it (though some are really close...39 inch vert for Robinson and 41 for Doctson....both of which are simply ridiculous). But yeah, I wouldn't be surprised if he put on a bit more weight over last year and the offseason, either by the coaches' request or just by virtue of having the achilles injury, as you noted.

[HTTRDynasty]

2 hours ago, mistertim said:

 

Only thing about Doctson vs Robinson that concerns me a bit is size. Robinson is around 220 and (as far as the combine and last year) Doctson is bit over 200 (202 at the combine IIRC) at about the same height which is pretty lanky for a 6'2 guy. I just worry about him being able to absorb hits consistently in the NFL. Maybe he's put on some size though.

 

Not worried about Doctson being able to hold up at 202 (if he hasn't gained weight since the combine).  AJ Green weighed 211 at the combine and he's 2 inches taller than Doctson.  He also just looks much more frail than Doctson does on the field.  Nonetheless, Green has played 86 out of 96 possible regular season games in his career, while playing in the physical AFC North.  Yea, not really worried about Doctson's ability to hold up.  His tendinitis is my only concern with him; I'm 100% confident he will be a very good player for us if that is no longer an issue.

[ncr2h]

Interesting article on WR height/weight and redzone efficiency: http://www.rotoworld.com/articles/nfl/46279/311/wr-size--and--red-zone-efficiency

 

I took a look at every wide receiver drafted since 2000 to see at least 35 red zone targets. Here’s the percentage of those red zone targets they converted into touchdowns, sorted by height.

 

6'0 or shorter: 22%

6'1" or 6'2": 24.5%

6'3" or taller: 27%

 

 

Very obvious relationship between height and red zone efficiency. Overall, wide receivers who stand 6’3” or taller have converted over 27 percent of all red zone targets into scores, compared to 22 percent for receivers 6’0” or shorter - meaning on any given red zone target, a tall receiver is over 20 percent more likely to score than a short one. That’s a significant difference.

 

The numbers are even more distorted if we sort by weight.
 

Sub-196: 21%

196-210: 23%

211+: 27%

217+: 28%

 

While wide receivers checking in below 196 pounds have converted fewer than 20.9 percent of their red zone targets into touchdowns, those weighing 217 pounds or more have recorded a 28.4 percent red zone touchdown rate. That means the heaviest receivers are 35.9 percent more likely than the lightest receivers to convert a red zone target into a touchdown.

 

That suggests that weight is a better predictor of wide receiver scoring than height, which is represented in the overall numbers. The strength of the correlation between wide receiver height and red zone efficiency is 0.29. That’s strong, but not nearly as high as the correlation coefficient for weight and red zone efficiency—0.40. Height and weight themselves are of course strongly correlated (0.73), so there’s really good evidence that while height certainly helps pass-catchers in the red zone, weight is more important.

 

I’m assuming the heaviest receivers are also the best in the red zone because they’re also usually the strongest. Height and leaping ability probably help in certain situations, but wide receivers see far more “regular” targets than jump balls. Because of that—the fact that heavier receivers can shield off defenders and use their bodies to help them make plays on the football—I think we see the numbers come out the way they do.

 

I agree with the author's overall point.  I don't think pure jumping ability is going to be utilized in the redzone as much as many are assuming.  Hopefully Doctson can put on some weight while not losing his explosiveness because otherwise, I fear he will be about NFL average in the redzone (assuming he's not a bust, which is hardly a given).

[The Consigliere]

On 4/3/2017 at 9:12 AM, Tsailand said:

 

Rod Gardner? Cliff Russell? Taylor Jacobs?

 

Snyder has drafted six WRs in the first three rounds, and five of them have been busts.  When you take into account that Doctson had only two receptions in his rookie year thanks to injury, he is right on target to be another bust.

 

I hope the front office is working on a Crowder extension, but they're too stupid for that to be likely.

 

Cliff Russell? Of those three Gardner is the bust. It's also a short short list.

 

How about Desmond Howard, Michael Westbunk,Tydus Winans (in fairness he was drafted as a day 3 prospect in modern parlance), and Albert "Locker Thief Pariah" Connell? The Redskins have drafted and developed only one elite WR since Charlie Taylor. Art Monk. That's it. Sanders and Clark were developed in the USFL. 

 

Crowder looks like a strong case to be the next of them. Doctson was considered by metrics geeks, and film geeks alike to be either the #1 or #2 overall WR in last year's draft depending upon what you might think of Corey Coleman. Some liked him a bit better, some liked Doctson better. Doctson is a flat out monster, if healthy, he does have a flaw beyond health that is worrisome in that he can struggle at times to break through press coverage, a serious issue at the NFL level, so it wasn't surprising that he was used as flanker primarily with TCU, but Pryor was switched to a flanker with the Browns before his breakout year so it will be interesting to see how the team decides to use them. Doctson needs work with the press, and so taking your time w/that issue, and using him as a flanker to move him off the LOS wouldn't be a bad idea, add in Pryor's size and strength, and he hopefully could be moved to Split End w/o a ton of trouble. 

 

Worth noting, Doctson's combine performance surprised a lot of people and ranked in the top 15 among WR's since the 2000 combine. A top 15 performance since 2000. Pretty damn impressive, especially when you are amazed looking at his tape as well.

 

I fully expect Doctson to be a monster stud at the next level if he can stay healthy, but that if is a big one right now, if Sandler was right about 100 targets, I'd go somewhere between 65-70 catches for 900-1050 yards and 6+ TD's. Crazy projection, but 100 targets and Doctson's efficiency there, I tend to think he can catch 65-70 on 100 targets. 

 

This is a guy who blew away NFL Scouts, blew away Matt Harmon when it came to his reception perception metric AND blew away the analytics community with his combine, top 15 overall since 2000, 68th percentile in the 40 size adjusted, 97th percentile burst score, 81st percentile agility score, and 96th percentile catch radius. 

 

Anybody can bust, but if he's healthy, I love his chances and with good reason. 

 

[Est.1974]

On 3 April 2017 at 11:38 AM, Spaceman Spiff said:

45 catches, 650 yards, 5 touchdowns.  Being optimistic.  

 

He's behind Reed, Crowder, Pryor.  And maybe even Brian Quick and Vernon Davis. FA isn't done yet (still not aware of who's out there that we could get, if anyone) and there's the draft still, too.

 

Dude just needs to stay healthy, first and foremost.  If he sees the field for 16 games this year I'll consider that a success.  More concerned with that than anything.  

 

 

Bout right. I think Pryor is getting 1200+ yards easily.

[TSO]

 

[Peregrine]

Any player coming into the NFL is going to beef up his frame, so I anticipate Doctson will probably be 210-215lbs this season.

 

Interesting, that article has 2 of the 5 "experts" predicting Doctson to have the breakout season among 2nd year players.  I cant disagree that he has all of the tools, and an ideal situation to do it in.  I think health will be key.

[Vanguard]

I'm hoping he has a great year.  He has all the tools.   And I hate to say it, but the only question I have is does he have the desire.  Maybe a little concerned about speed too. 

[XxSpearheadxX]

On 4/17/2017 at 11:26 AM, Peregrine said:

Any player coming into the NFL is going to beef up his frame, so I anticipate Doctson will probably be 210-215lbs this season.

 

Interesting, that article has 2 of the 5 "experts" predicting Doctson to have the breakout season among 2nd year players.  I cant disagree that he has all of the tools, and an ideal situation to do it in.  I think health will be key.

I agree that he has probably bulked up "the right way" now with nfl trainers helping him.

 

Also it was 3 experts.

 

[justice98]

I think it's going to mean a lot that Doctson doesn't have to be the #1 guy, with so many other weapons in the passing game.

[abdcskins]

The thing that bothers me about Doctson is that we never got a full detailed diagnoses of his Achilles.  It was just that he, "tweaked it," and had tendinitis and never returned.  That can be a very troublesome injury to recover from.  I have tendinitis in my wrist (I think) and it pretty much hurts all the time whenever I put pressure on it.

 

That being said he is still young (24) and had extended rest, so there's no reason he can't give it his all.  No real prediction from me.  I'd be happy with anywhere near 40 receptions for however many yards.

 

 

 

 

[Burgundy Yoda]

I'm trying to keep my expectations low here, so I'll go with:

 

3825 receiving yards

29 Touchdowns

 

Unfortunately, we'll probably be looking at drafting another receiver next year. 

[COWBOY-KILLA-]

Sky's the Limit for this kid.

58 receptions 926 yds and 6Td's..

 

[Probos]

I do not know -- I hope he turns out to be a solid player.  But,.....that bust stench is slightly detectable at this point.

[HTTRDynasty]

I just realized how tough Pryor is going to have it this year.  Look at the #1 CB's we face this season:

 

Richard Sherman

Patrick Peterson

Aquib Talib

Xavier Rhodes

Janoris Jenkins

Marcus Peters

Casey Hayward

Trumaine Johnson

Marshon Lattimore (Only potential so far, but #1 CB in stacked CB class)

 

He is going to earn all of that $6-8M this year if he can have a productive season going up against these guys.  Regardless, I think Doctson should see plenty of targets as a result.

[Hail2theSkins24]

IF he stays healthy, he will be productive. I think Doctson would have been WR2 behind Davis in this draft, the kid is a stud. 

 

54 catches- 730 yards- 7 TDs

[oraphus]

3 hours ago, HTTRDynasty said:

I just realized how tough Pryor is going to have it this year.  Look at the #1 CB's we face this season:

 

Richard Sherman

Patrick Peterson

Aquib Talib

Xavier Rhodes

Janoris Jenkins

Marcus Peters

Casey Hayward

Trumaine Johnson

Marshon Lattimore (Only potential so far, but #1 CB in stacked CB class)

 

He is going to earn all of that $6-8M this year if he can have a productive season going up against these guys.  Regardless, I think Doctson should see plenty of targets as a result.

He wont necessarily face all the best corners as some only cover one side of the field. Skins can also move Pryor in to the slot for miss-matches. I am actually pretty excited to see how teams D up the skins with both Reed and Pryor on the field on 3rd downs. Either way.. Doctson and Crowder could stand to be the biggest beneficiaries of the Pryor signing.

[Riggo'sRangers]

3 hours ago, Hail2theSkins24 said:

IF he stays healthy, he will be productive. I think Doctson would have been WR2 behind Davis in this draft, the kid is a stud. 

 

In my opinion you are really shortchanging Doctson.  I like Davis's raw potential but Doc achieved at a high level in a big time program.  He tested similar to Davis and was featured on a Sports Science episode.  D Hall recently said JDoc has the best hands he has seen since Larry Fitzgerald.  If Doctson is healthy, and by every appearance he is, then it is not even close.  I absolutely love Davis's potential though but he is far from a polished product. Love the fact that we got him and look forward to his future.  Hail 

 

 

[Hail2theSkins24]

@Riggo'sRangers I like Davis a little more because of what he does after the catch, a little more explosive that Doctson. Both have to prove they are capable of running a pro system route tree. Ultimately, I think both will be very good NFL WR's. I'm fascinated with JDoc's development leading up to the season. It's a bit ? In my opinion.

[XxSpearheadxX]

@Hail2theSkins24

What makes you think Davis is more explosive after the catch than Doctson? A 42 inch vertical is pretty damn explosive. Davis is much meatier and stronger but I think Doctson is a mich more natural reciever. He's got a nasty spin move in the open field too! I like davis a lot too, and they both need to learn to get open more and rely less on high point catches in traffic, but Doctson is a natural at down field pass catching. I don't think Davis is anywhere near the level of reciever Doctson was coming out.

 

That being said after having seen what Terrelle Pryor did becoming a legit WR I think if someone puts in the work they can definitely get a lot better.

 

I LOVE that robert davis is a great blocker for a WR. Both for teams and because it will help say adios to Grant.

[Conn]

RAC is definitely not Doctson's strong suit, and I'd agree Davis has the edge there (and in being younger). But Doctson has the edge in some categories that I think jive really well with Cousins' skill-set: in the air, in contested catch situations, along the sideline

[goskins10]

6 hours ago, Hail2theSkins24 said:

IF he stays healthy, he will be productive. I think Doctson would have been WR2 behind Davis in this draft, the kid is a stud. 

 

54 catches- 730 yards- 7 TDs

 

Not so sure about that. Davis has a little better thickness and therefore a little harder to bring down. Also Doctson is a little more susceptible to getting knocked off his routes. But it's not a big difference. Doctson has much better hands, both in the air fighting for balls and working CBs. Also, because of his crazy vertical and strong hands he got more jump balls thrown his way instead of in stride.

 

If both had been on the board at the same time (assuming the hypothetical that they were in the same draft) and it was my choice it would have been a really tough decision. I would probably go with Doctson based on his better hands and fewer drops and going into their respective drafts, Doctson showed no signs of any injury where although ultimately cleared Davis is coming off ankle surgery.

 

Both have a lot of potential. Could both be stars for their respective teams.