A Superbowl Moral for our OCs

[Wyvern]

While I am not providing any statistics for my hypothesis -- I've noted something that seems to crop up with pass-oriented teams resorting to running plays in crucial situations, especially with injured/suspect players important to the run blocking.  Either they don't  gain any yards, or they get tagged with holding calls.  

 

In contrast, passing-oriented teams looking for that crucial yardage via the air, are often able to milk a 5-yard/1st down defensive penalties -- especially during the regular season.  

 

Consequently I'm not going to fault Shanahan for putting trust in his QB (with a decent track record in 2017) to move the chains.

 

As a side comment -- I think many of us tend to over-judge the overall quality of a Player or a Coach' by the results of his most recent decision/performance.   While I don't think anyone should sit on their laurels, but how much should the results of a mistake in the most recent quarter overshadow the accomplishments of the preceding 71 quarters? 

 

I cannot think of anyone who always made the "Winning Play" or "Winning Call" -- winning results are influenced by so many interrelated factors that a single player or coach cannot control.

 

 

[TD_washingtonredskins]

9 hours ago, justice98 said:

I agree, they should've run it and burned the clock and protected the FG. Running it doesn't necessarily mean there won't be a holding call, but they could've lived with the sack, the penalty was the killer.

 

So, first of all I agree about that. Even before hindsight I was saying the same thing to my TV last night. However, in fairness the Falcons had just passed twice on that drive for 39 and 27 yards and run the ball twice for 2 and -1 yards. Now, again, it's easy to see that the sack on 2nd-and-11 drastically changed everything. However, I'm sure in Atlanta's mind they simply needed one more first down to end the game. 

 

Also, many who are destroying the Falcons for not being conservative were destroying the Redskins for playing for a FG in London. It's much easier to judge these things when the results are made available. 

[Burgold]

I dunno, Wyvern. Even if they were not successful running the ball after getting it to the 20 they would have probably won. Two time out burned, very little time on the clock, and an 11 point lead would probably be too much to overcome. 

 

The Patriots would have had to get that touchdown, two-point conversion, recover an onside kick and march at least into field goal range... all basically without time outs and with less than three minutes to go. As it was, the Patriots only had 30 seconds left. I think two  2 yard runs and a successful kick would have won the game. Now, if they miss the kick that makes it moot, but it would have been shorter than a field goal if they didn't take the sack.

 

3rd and inches in shotgun leading to a sack strip was also really, really dumb. The clock was their friend and they turned their back on its outstretched hand.

[CommDownMan]

Considering they also have killed the running game it makes less sense. Seattle lost to the Pats trying to pass with a Lynch in the backfield. That's one they'll be thinking about for a long time.

[clskinsfan]

Amen. Preach Burgold. If you run the ball 3 times after Julios catch. You win the game. Even if you lose a yard on every carry. You kick a 45 yarder and you are world champs. What idiotic play calling by Atlanta there.

[NickyJ]

3 hours ago, TD_washingtonredskins said:

Also, many who are destroying the Falcons for not being conservative were destroying the Redskins for playing for a FG in London. It's much easier to judge these things when the results are made available. 

Different situations. When we were playing, the Redskins were in OT and had the ball at the Cincinnati 13. On 2nd and 4, we sent Kirk out to drop back 3 yards and fall to the turf for a field goal on third down. On 2nd and 4, with all the time in the world, we intentionally lost yards. There is only one comparison between the two: They were miserably planned and both backfired spectacularly.

[Veretax]

I had flashbacks to... To our Super Bowl Against the Bills (where the Bills made a comeback till we scored in the 4th basically to stall it. 

Also to the Giants/Pats First edition.

[Thirtyfive2seven]

I have no idea what they were thinking especially with Coleman and Freeman running like mad men.  Every time they touched the ball they seemed to be shot out of a cannon. They almost always moved the pile forward.  The running game was non-existent in the 2nd half for Atlanta.  And yes, the Redskins are guilty of the exact same thing in the past with the only difference being that the Redskins are usually down after halftime and need to play catch up.  The redskins are in dire need of several things.  Kirk, a MUCH better RB and running game, and a better defense.  If you gave Kirk those things this team would be SO dangerous. 

[ExoDus84]

13 hours ago, Rufus T Firefly said:

It turned out to probably not mean much in the end, but there was also a play on that crucial Atlanta drive that was mind-boggling. After the big pass to Jones, they ended up snapping the ball with 19 seconds left on the play clock. You're up 8 with 5 minutes left, in position to make it a two score game, why the hell are you giving your opponent an extra 18 seconds? That's just freaking amateur hour.

 

I was shocked at this too. They were leaving 20 seconds on the playclock that entire drive. WTF are you doing man? Bleed that damn thing. On the drive after the Julio catch, they had an easy FG lined up, that would have essentially sealed the game. Run the ball 3 times, kick the easy FG, put a ring on your finger. It's not hard. Shanahan cost them the ring with the pathetic playcalling; Quinn cost them the ring by not telling them to milk every nanosecond from the clock; Ryan lost the ring by taking awful sacks and getting stripped.

 

Just an epic meltdown that rivals the worst of all time, in any sport. Ever.

[skins island connection]

 Falcons were bogging down, they'd done lost momenum, the crowd was rooting for the Pats, and it turned into a game between youth vs experience.

 

 I guarantee every single Falcons player on the field during the 4th had nerves tearing them up; their running game was being shut down, the coaches knew it, and tried to out-wit a genius in Belichik, and that wasn't gonna happen.  Momentum is so underrated, the Pats had it, and they had the experience. Brady is without a doubt the greatest QB ever IMO, and he proved again why he is. 

 

Of course a little luck did play a part; that absolutely sick catch Edleman made with 6 arms and 2 legs within 2 ft of the ball, to have the concentration, shows how a well coached team can get lucky. I've dreamed of the Redskins having a disciplined team, instead of the big smiles after giving up a TD. The players need to understand who is in charge, and play with maximum effort on every single play, because you never know when or where the ball might be in your hands.

[FrFan]

They let them off the hook. This loss is going to take a heavy toll on them.

[zoony]

The zone scheme is great for piling up meaningless yards but does absolutely nothing to wear down an opposing defense or set an opposing defense up to impose your will on them

 

when the Falcons NEEDED to run the ball, they couldn't. We saw it with the Redskins for the entire Shanahan era. 

 

It is a a fundamentally flawed scheme but leave it to some naïve GM or Owner to fall in love with the stat line and give Shanahan a job. Cough 49ers

[Dissident2]

There's absolutely no excuse for what Shanny Jr. did there. Absolutely no justification. If you absolutely have to pass, you at the very LEAST don't call a long dropback type of play. 

 

This is the whole problem with some of these young offensive "geniuses." Amazing with X's and O's and the theory behind things, but CLUELESS at times when it comes to the raw emotion of a game and situational awareness. 

 

Ryan was playing scared through much of that second half. He's already taken some bad sacks over the course of the game. I don't care if you've got "the right look" for one of your schemes. Take it out of Ryan's hands at this point and let him hand it off, burn clock and kick the field goal. Absolute idiocy. I truly feel for the Falcons fanbase right now. What a punch to the sack. 

 

But there's also ANOTHER play that OCs should learn a lesson from, and that came from Josh McDaniel. First and goal at the two in overtime, and they THROW A FADE. A fade that's almost picked, I might add. Hit Beasley, I think, right in the palm of the hand. Can this play finally be expunged from the Redskins playbook? It is the absolute worst goalline play in existence. It seemed like the only reason Jay stayed with it last year was to be able to say "in your face" to Sonny, who also expressed his disdain for that play. I've seen it work maybe 20 percent of the times it's called league-wide. Unless it's the Redskins of 2016. In that case, 0 percent. 

[BleedBNG]

22 hours ago, TheDoyler23 said:

All they needed to do was run the ball and kick a FG to go up 11. Would have been a two possession game with less than 3 minutes left. So dumb. 

 

I agree. After they went up 28-3 I said to just concentrate on getting a FG sometime during the rest of the game and they could start thinking about a ring fitting. This was a complete coaching meltdown. After Jones incredible catch the ball was on the 22. That was the time with 4:38 to go run 3 downs to take more clock off and let your kicker, who was 6 for 8 at 50+ this year (longest - 62), kicking in a dome, win the game... or at least give it a shot. The one I feel bad for in the SB is Matt Bryant.

[Warhead36]

8 hours ago, Dissident2 said:

There's absolutely no excuse for what Shanny Jr. did there. Absolutely no justification. If you absolutely have to pass, you at the very LEAST don't call a long dropback type of play. 

 

This is the whole problem with some of these young offensive "geniuses." Amazing with X's and O's and the theory behind things, but CLUELESS at times when it comes to the raw emotion of a game and situational awareness. 

 

Ryan was playing scared through much of that second half. He's already taken some bad sacks over the course of the game. I don't care if you've got "the right look" for one of your schemes. Take it out of Ryan's hands at this point and let him hand it off, burn clock and kick the field goal. Absolute idiocy. I truly feel for the Falcons fanbase right now. What a punch to the sack. 

 

But there's also ANOTHER play that OCs should learn a lesson from, and that came from Josh McDaniel. First and goal at the two in overtime, and they THROW A FADE. A fade that's almost picked, I might add. Hit Beasley, I think, right in the palm of the hand. Can this play finally be expunged from the Redskins playbook? It is the absolute worst goalline play in existence. It seemed like the only reason Jay stayed with it last year was to be able to say "in your face" to Sonny, who also expressed his disdain for that play. I've seen it work maybe 20 percent of the times it's called league-wide. Unless it's the Redskins of 2016. In that case, 0 percent. 

Yeah I to this day have never understood the love for the fade. You're basically throwing the entire rest of the field down the drain. You're doing the other team a big favor by basically telling them they don't have to cover all but a sliver of the field. Fades are only 50/50 and thats absolute best case scenario if you're throwing to a Jones/Green/Bryant type.

 

Football coaches are some of the dumbest human beings on the planet.

[SkinsGuy]

I saw on "NFL Total Access" that after the Falcons got a 28-3 lead on the Patriots, they tried to run the ball only four times the rest of the game.

 

It does seem odd to have so few rushing attempts with such a large lead.

[dsciambi]

1 hour ago, SkinsGuy said:

I saw on "NFL Total Access" that after the Falcons got a 28-3 lead on the Patriots, they tried to run the ball only four times the rest of the game.

 

It does seem odd to have so few rushing attempts with such a large lead.

Especially when their RB's were absolutely gashing the Patriots.

 

And it's definitely something we've seen before with the Redskins.

[TD_washingtonredskins]

17 minutes ago, dsciambi said:

Especially when their RB's were absolutely gashing the Patriots.

 

And it's definitely something we've seen before with the Redskins.

Earlier in the game, yes. But after 28-3 they ran the ball for 2.5 yards per carry (not including another -1 yard run that was negated by penalty). In the fourth quarter, they didn't necessarily abandon a running game that was still working. That's not to defend the decision, just add some context. 

[Burgold]

Just to counter that... if they only ran 4 times in the entire second half it's hard to say that the Patriots figured out the Falcon's running game. Not enough carries. It's more like they abandoned the run. In this case though, I'm not even sure you had to be successful running... you just had to not take sacks and chew up 39 seconds at a time.

[TD_washingtonredskins]

41 minutes ago, Burgold said:

Just to counter that... if they only ran 4 times in the entire second half it's hard to say that the Patriots figured out the Falcon's running game. Not enough carries. It's more like they abandoned the run. In this case though, I'm not even sure you had to be successful running... you just had to not take sacks and chew up 39 seconds at a time.

 

Absolutely. As it turned out, it's very likely that simply running the ball three times and punting on their possessions would have resulted in a win. Just looking at the results of the plays prior to the sack/fumble, they were moving the ball so easily through the air. We've all seen games in the NFL where teams opt to throw the ball to gain that critical first down to ice it. 

 

Again, in the end, they should have run the ball. I also believe that there were some egregious mistakes that they made (passing on 3rd-and-1 up by 16). But I think there is SOME context around this and it seems like they believed their best chance to keep their gassed D off the field was to gain first downs by passing the ball. 

[DCtoSC_SKINS_LIFER]

All I can think of is the late Dennis Green (RIP). "They were who we thought they were, and we let 'em off the hook."

[Peregrine]

Yeah, the time of possession was amazing, as the only team burning clock was the Patriots, and they were the one behind.  The Falcons seemed like they were trying to save the Patriots clock.  

 

After the TD to put Atlanta up 28-3 and then the Patriots scoring to make it 28-9, the Falcons had 4 more drives with 17 minutes of game left.  They burned a total of 6 minutes and 54 seconds.  The Patriots burned over 10 minutes of that remaining time, and they needed at least 9 minutes of it.  If the Falcons had simply run the ball 3 times, on each drive, and never got a first down(which was unlikely, as they had dominated running the ball so far in the game), they would have burned off 8 minutes and 40 seconds of clock.  The Patriots wouldn't have had enough time to win.  Heck, one first down and that becomes almost 11 minutes.  

 

Sometimes you get too cute as a coordinator.  When Freeman is averaging 6.8 yards a carry, if he gets stuffed on 1st down, run him again on second.

[Rufus T Firefly]

21 minutes ago, Peregrine said:

Yeah, the time of possession was amazing, as the only team burning clock was the Patriots, and they were the one behind.  The Falcons seemed like they were trying to save the Patriots clock.  

 

After the TD to put Atlanta up 28-3 and then the Patriots scoring to make it 28-9, the Falcons had 4 more drives with 17 minutes of game left.  They burned a total of 6 minutes and 54 seconds.  The Patriots burned over 10 minutes of that remaining time, and they needed at least 9 minutes of it.  If the Falcons had simply run the ball 3 times, on each drive, and never got a first down(which was unlikely, as they had dominated running the ball so far in the game), they would have burned off 8 minutes and 40 seconds of clock.  The Patriots wouldn't have had enough time to win.  Heck, one first down and that becomes almost 11 minutes.  

I don't disagree with your general point at all. However, I don't think your reasoning or math quite pass muster.

 

First off, the 4 possessions you cite includes the final one after NE tied the score. Obviously, the Patriots didn't need those 54 seconds to be on the clock and the Falcons couldn't have burned more time there, nor would it matter if they did somehow. Further, the Pats weren't in any kind of a hurry on their last drive. They could have used a hurry-up if they had less seconds to work with. They actually ended regulation with two Timeouts in their pocket, too.

 

You seem to be using 2:10 for every three run-play drive, which is a fair estimate. So, for the three drives between the 28-9 point and the Patriots final drive the Falcons by that measure could have burned 6:30 that way. Well, the Falcons actually burned 6 minutes on those three drives. That 30 second difference, again, wouldn't have run the clock out on the Patriots. At most, it would have meant fewer seconds for the Falcons on that last drive.

[Playaction2Sanders]

On 2/5/2017 at 8:08 PM, justice98 said:

I agree, they should've run it and burned the clock and protected the FG. Running it doesn't necessarily mean there won't be a holding call, but they could've lived with the sack, the penalty was the killer.

 

You run the ball 3 times, Bryant misses the FG the narrative is Shanahan played it too safe. You know and I know that how people would have looked at it. Those long ass sustaining drives NE had in the 2nd quarter, while they didn't yield a ton of points did help wear ATL defense down. You see how many times an offense has a long drive result in 6 points for the opposing defense, and the offense comes right back the next drive and scores since the defense has had no rest..

 

ATL did what it had to do to win the game and somehow they found a way to lose it. They won the turnover battle, they only made a couple of mistakes compared to NE. NE was in straight up desperation mode, when Edelman threw that WR QB option pass and ATL had it read the entire time. It felt like when Apollo Creed in the 2nd round of the fight with Ivan Drago threw a punch at him and Drago was like you got nothing left.. 

[Rufus T Firefly]

1 hour ago, Playaction2Sanders said:

You run the ball 3 times, Bryant misses the FG the narrative is Shanahan played it too safe. You know and I know that how people would have looked at it.

Sorry, that's nonsense. Only a clown would criticize a guy for running the ball while winning with less than 4 minutes to go. If Bryant missed the FG, that's what people would be talking about.

 

Not that that matters. There was an obvious right move and he didn't take it. The possibility that he might have been criticized if it had gone bad is no excuse for not doing the right thing.