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Combo Thread: Redskins Flex Scheduling Updates/Playoff Positioning Updates

kleese

By kleese
in The Stadium

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kleese

kleese

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Every year I create one thread dedicated to possible schedule changes and another thread (in year's when it applies) to playoff possibilities/positioning.

This year (more on that in a minute) the schedule thread will be fairy quiet, so I decided to just go ahead and combine them. First, the scheduling:

Flex scheduling actually started several weeks ago, but we haven't seen many changes. One was seeing the Panthers-Cards featured late FOX game this week get the boot to 1pm eastern in exchange of Packers-Falcons.

For the Redskins, I wouldn't lose much sleep over possible changes as things just aren't lining up that way. As a weird side note, last year was the first year since 1978 that the Redskins didn't play at least one late Sunday afternoon game. They haven't so far this year either, a streak which will (likely, but not 100%) be snapped when we go to Arizona the first week in December.

For those that don't know, the NFL requires 10ish days notice for Flexed games. So they generally announce on a Tuesday any changes for the FOLLOWING weekend. The exception to this is week 17 when they don't announce the changes until week 16 is completed. And as always there is no SNF game scheduled for week 17 and they simply choose the most meaningful/attractive match up.

For us, let's go week by week.

Week 10 (vs Vikings at 1pm eastern): This is pretty good game on paper, but it has nowhere to go. The SNF game is Seahawks-Patriots and it is going nowhere. The late FOX national game is Cowboys at Steelers and that is certainly not moving and there is no reason at all for FOX to move another regional game to that spot. I do think there is a decent chance our game gets "cross-flexed" from FOX to CBS that day, but it won't affect the start time at all-- just the network. The odds of this game staying where it is are around 99.9%.

Week 11 (vs Packers at 8:30 eastern SNF): I'd put the odds of this staying around 98%, maybe even 100%. The idea behind Flex scheduling isn't to move out a B+ game for an A- game-- the idea is to have wiggle room to remove dog games in favor of an attractive one. The decision on this game needs to be made the Tuesday after our BYE week. The worst we will be at that point is 4-4; same with GB-- and that is if they lose both of their next two games. Packers are a big draw, Redskins are a big NFC East market, both teams are competitive at worst and contenders at best. The rest of the schedule isn't all that hot that day anyway, so for those who hate night games at FeedEx, sorry.

Week 12 (at Cowboys Thanksgiving): Obviously, not going anywhere

Week 13 (at Cardinals 4:25 eastern): Keep an eye on this one. I don't think it's "likely" to move by any means, but the SNF game that week is Panthers at Seahawks. Unless Carolina does something asap, this game is likely going to get moved. And because it is in Seattle, it has to move to a late afternoon slot. The anchor FOX game that day is Giants at Steelers-- this will almost certainly be protected by FOX and won't be eligible to move. The most logical replacement is Redskins/Cardinals IF (and this is a major if) both teams are still in the hunt when the decision has to be made. Kansas City at Atlanta and Philly at Cincy are also possibilities, but moving those games from 1pm eastern would cause FOX a logjam in the late slot unless Panthers game was moved to CBS instead. Anyway, I'd say there is a very, very good chance the Panthers game is dropped from SNF and our game will be one of 2-3 that would likely get consideration to replace it.

Week 14 (at Eagles 1pm eastern): Dallas at Giants is the SNF game so there is a 0% chance that moves. The late FOX anchor game is Seahawks at Packers. Very hard to see that one being swapped for our game-- it would likely take a very big collapse from GB between now and week 12. Like a total bottoming out....Very slim chance our game that day moves.

Week 15 (vs Panthers on MNF): No change obviously

Week 16 (at Bears 1pm eastern): Both the SNF game (Bengals/Texans) and the late FOX anchor game (Cardinals/Seahawks) look a bit shaky right now; so those are far from set in stone, but Redskins-Bears sure as heck won't replace either of them. The only way this gets moved is if there is a major shuffling of the schedule that day and they need our game to move later to alleviate a logjam or conflict somewhere.

Week 17 (vs Giants at 1pm eastern): Who knows.... total crapshoot. Could wind up early, late, or at night depending on standings/interest.

As far as the playoff picture is concerned....

One thing that generally happens on ES is that the board over-exaggerates what has to happen in order to make the playoffs. I generally read a lot of "must win" type of stuff well before it is anywhere close to must-win. There have been some years here and there (AFC last year) where a 10-6 team gets really unlucky and misses the playoffs, but for the most part, 10 gets you in and 9 gives you a really good chance.

This year, I think at least one WC team from the NFC will be 9-7, MAYBE even 8-8. Wouldn't shock me if both WCs went 9-7. Before the year I think most assigned one WC to whoever finished second in the west (Cards/Seahawks). Same thing in the North with Vikings/Packers. Now, that doesn't seem so clear with the Cards looking very ordinary and the Packers looking sluggish. And while they are 5-1, I wouldn't be all the shocked if Minnesota starts losing and coming back to the pack as well. There is a just a huge jumble in the NFC- I don't think the second place team in the South will earn a WC this year so that leaves every pretty bunched up.

In other words, as long as 9-7 is still a realistic possibility for the Redskins, they will be in the hunt for sure. I think Dallas is going to win the East-- I think they will finish as good as 12-4, and if not, maybe 11-5 and distance themselves from us, the Eagles and Giants. I see competing with the Eagles, Giants, Packers/Vikings, Lions, Bucs, Cardinals, Rams, etc.. for two spots.

For now, it's hard to know who to root for because who knows what we'll need to happen in the end. This much is simple: always root for an AFC team over and NFC team and root for the Bears, 49ers, Saints, and perhaps Panthers (if you are convinced they can't get back in it). Those are teams I do not see contending and if they can beat contenders it will help the others.

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kleese

kleese

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1 hour ago, superozman said:

I jumped on ES last week stating "I wonder if that scheduling thread will be posted soon"!!!  ha!  As you can see, i'm lazy and just look for this instead of doing the work myself :).  And definitely agree with the sentiments.

By the way, Redskins could be at worst 4-5 vs. Packers...not sure about them.

What matters is what the record would be when the league makes the flex decision. That decision will be made the Tuesday after our bye week. So we will either be 5-3 or 4-4 when they make the call. Again I'd be shocked if it moved.

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MarkB452

MarkB452

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Thanks for the info...planning on going to the Packers game with some friends...would be totally bummed if that one moves, but based on your analysis, I don't think it will happen (plus I have heard that Pez is planning to roast a pig for the Packers game  -- if that got moved, then goodbye roasted pig).

 

 

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kleese

kleese

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Not much to update on the schedule. Again, I see no change to our game with Vikings other than possibly moving to CBS instead of FOX. 

Playoffs.... hard to believe, but strictly in terms of wild card positioning, we had a pretty good day. 

At this point I'm conceding the East to Dallas. That could change if they start to stumble, but I see them as an 11/12 win team this year and I don't think any of the other East teams will seriously challenge that. 

So my focus is all wild card at this point. And I think those two spots will be very much up for grabs the entire second half. 

Eagles, Lions, Packers, Bucs, Cardinals losing today = us gaining ground on each of them. 

 

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Cooleyfan1993

Cooleyfan1993

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10 minutes ago, mammajamma said:

don't think we should give up on the east yet. took a hit tonight, but we're only halfway through the season and only 2 1/2 games back 

You DO realize who Dallas plays next weekend right...? The Browns. That's another win right there, on a weekend that we don't even get a chance to make up any ground in the division race. 

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Rattlesnake88

Rattlesnake88

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59 minutes ago, Cooleyfan1993 said:

You DO realize who Dallas plays next weekend right...? The Browns. That's another win right there, on a weekend that we don't even get a chance to make up any ground in the division race. 

You may be the jinx the cowboys need. Would love the browns getting their first win vs the boys.

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Califan007 The Constipated

Califan007 The Constipated

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As of right now...

Screen%20Shot%202016-10-31%20at%2012.13.

 

Right now only the Eagles and Giants are ahead of the Redskins even though the Skins beat both teams...but that's a tiebreaker the Skins have in their back pocket. Since the Giants and Eagles play each other next weekend, one of those two teams is gonna lose and will automatically be behind the Skins. If they tie, both teams fall behind the Redskins. We also have to hope the Lions lose to the Vikings next weekend. That would give them 5 losses to the Skins' 3 losses, helping to mitigate somewhat their head-to-head tiebreaker because we wouldn't have to hope for help against them as much.

Other than the Lions, the only other teams right now that the Skins are competing against for a WC spot are the Giants, Eagles, Packers and Cardinals. Good thing for them is that they play each of these teams in the final 8 games, so they have a lot of control over their playoff chances.

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kleese

kleese

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19 minutes ago, NattyBo said:

 

Ah because we haven't had our bye week yet and the Eagles and Giants have. Good point. 

Once we get past next week it will be less confusing-- won't be many teams that haven't had a bye after that. After next week either the Giants or Eagles will for sure be ahead of us by a half game and one will for sure be behind us by a half game; unless of course, they tie. 

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Califan007 The Constipated

Califan007 The Constipated

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29 minutes ago, kleese said:

Once we get past next week it will be less confusing-- won't be many teams that haven't had a bye after that. After next week either the Giants or Eagles will for sure be ahead of us by a half game and one will for sure be behind us by a half game; unless of course, they tie. 

What you said in the other thread is definitely true, we don't have to really worry about tiebreakers anymore...if the Skins end up with the same number of wins at the end of the season as any other team, they automatically come out ahead of that team.

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TD_washingtonredskins

TD_washingtonredskins

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1 hour ago, Califan007 said:

I think it's seen as 4 wins out of 7 games for the Eagles and Giants, and 4 wins out of 8 games for the Skins.

That's what I don't understand. I'm not complaining since 4-3-1 "feels" worse than "4-3", but the standings have a win percentage and it looks like this: 

Eagles/Giants 4-3 (.571)

Redskins 4-3-1 (.563)

So there is some pretty complex math at play. I would expect us to either be .571 or .500, right? In the end, it won't matter once we all play the same number games - we'll either be x.5 games up or behind teams. 

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Califan007 The Constipated

Califan007 The Constipated

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10 minutes ago, TD_washingtonredskins said:

That's what I don't understand. I'm not complaining since 4-3-1 "feels" worse than "4-3", but the standings have a win percentage and it looks like this: 

Eagles/Giants 4-3 (.571)

Redskins 4-3-1 (.563)

So there is some pretty complex math at play. I would expect us to either be .571 or .500, right? In the end, it won't matter once we all play the same number games - we'll either be x.5 games up or behind teams. 

yeah, they're adding in the tie in some fashion, not sure how (unless it really is a half a win or something lol)

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TheGreek1973

TheGreek1973

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Wouldn't it be simpler if they had a soccer system scoring.  3 points for a win, 1 for tie.  And you know what?  Don't have any OT.  You will see some teams reaching for a TD instead of a FG to tie a game in the end because they may need those 3 points to go ahead of a team that are not even playing.

To me that is a much better system.  Makes it more interesting.

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