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2015/2016 Winter Weather Thread


Skins24

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El Nino.

That's the big story this winter, and least early on. It is a very strong one, but unlike the '97-'98 El Nino (to which the strength can be compared,) this one is not east-based. More central. So the mid-atlantic going through this winter with very little snow is very unlikely.

That said, we really don't know what this winter will bring. Every El Nino winter is different. However we can make some pretty educated guesses. With it's current set up and streghth, our chances of seeing a significant snowstorm is increased. That it is probably peaking right now, increases our chances of seeing a cold, snowly latter half of winter. And then unrelated to El Nino, there's record October snows again in siberia, also increasing our chances of a real winter.

 

 

Now short term. Models are currently in agreement that the end of November will be vastly different from the beginning. Latest GFS run has us failing to reach 40 (even freezing) a couple of days (teens at night.) Both Euro and GFS has some storminess in the area Thanksgiving week but WAY WAY too early to conjecture on what this could mean. Currently no real consistency. Just possibly something to keep an eye on.

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Enjoy it now. The next couple times we see decent temps (tomorrow, then very briefly Thanksgiving weekend) it'll be too wet to enjoy.

Our first close call with frozen precip comes Sunday when a clipper comes through with a reinforcing shot of cold air. It looks to come through dry, but maybe, just maybe, we can squeak some snow flurries out.

We recover temps wise the following weekend due to what's looking to be a massive storm. This storm will bring the first real shot of arctic air to the U.S. Hopefully we see the cold air spilling in before the precip stops, changing our rain to snow. A few GFS runs (including the latest) have shown this but....it's just so rare... We'll see.

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This swath of rain moving in to the mid-atlantic is staying together about as well as any system I've seen. Just one gigantic squall line from the top of the country to the bottom, roughly 100 miles across.

Heads up you all from NC to FL, it's looking like it'll be intense where you are. GA already getting hammered.

Looks like it could be on top of DC by morning rush hour.

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