DogofWar1 Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 Does no one read the OP? The hypothetical situation is clearly laid out. What would you offer in THAT situation? THAT is what the OP is asking. All the "if he does this or that" isn't answering the question. Here it is again: We moved past that by post 3, since post 2 by BotW93 covered it. Boiling one game, freezing the next, he's getting Hoyer numbers, relatively short deal of 2 years probably to see if another 8 games yield any improvement. We've expanded to other hypotheticals with regards to QB pay, since there's a (hopefully very real) possibility that he might even out in his improvement by the end of the year, which will cost more, depending on how much he improves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheGreatBuzz Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 We moved past that by post 3, since post 2 by BotW93 covered it. Boiling one game, freezing the next, he's getting Hoyer numbers, relatively short deal of 2 years probably to see if another 8 games yield any improvement. We've expanded to other hypotheticals with regards to QB pay, since there's a (hopefully very real) possibility that he might even out in his improvement by the end of the year, which will cost more, depending on how much he improves. I"m sorry I am just getting frustrated. I don't think its fair though to say we moved past it by post 3 though. Does no one else have an opinion on that situation? What would he be worth and how can it be set up in THAT situation? I was actually really looking forward to this thread in the way the OP set it up especially since I'm not a contract/cap guy. Going into the "if this or that level of play" is just a continuation of the Cousins thread IMO. But I'm not a mod or the OP so I'll bow out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mistertim Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 I"m sorry I am just getting frustrated. I don't think its fair though to say we moved past it by post 3 though. Does no one else have an opinion on that situation? What would he be worth and how can it be set up in THAT situation? I was actually really looking forward to this thread in the way the OP set it up especially since I'm not a contract/cap guy. Going into the "if this or that level of play" is just a continuation of the Cousins thread IMO. But I'm not a mod or the OP so I'll bow out. Thing is...Cousins could get anywhere from a small contract to a very large one. It really all depends on how he plays. We know he has always struggled with consistency. If he kills it the rest of the season then lock him up for a nice sum. If he continues to be good Kirk/bad Kirk then I wouldn't give him any more than mediocre journeyman money. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DogofWar1 Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 I"m sorry I am just getting frustrated. I don't think its fair though to say we moved past it by post 3 though. Does no one else have an opinion on that situation? What would he be worth and how can it be set up in THAT situation? I was actually really looking forward to this thread in the way the OP set it up especially since I'm not a contract/cap guy. Going into the "if this or that level of play" is just a continuation of the Cousins thread IMO. But I'm not a mod or the OP so I'll bow out. There's just not much wiggle room if we purely constrain ourselves to the narrow hypothetical in the OP. Take a peek at this, it gives all the contract information. http://overthecap.com/position/quarterback Sort on a per year basis. Per year isn't the end all be all of a contract, not by a long shot, but it is the "money shot" and will likely be what is haggled over before anything else is haggled over. All 2nd contract or later starters (who are actually starting caliber), with the exception of Brady, get 12.25M or more, and anyone even remotely entrenched is 16M+. Meanwhile, once you've eliminated rookie deals, you're left with guys like Hoyer, McCown, Sanchez, and Henne, all sitting below 5.25M. Now, maybe in the past we could question whether Snyder/Vinny/Shanny/whoever would give a hot-and-cold guy like Cousins a bigger deal, but Scotty likely won't play games like that. Remember he built teams in San Fran and Seattle without QBs, and especially in Seattle, because they didn't have to pay a QB a premium. If Cousins is getting starter money from Scotty, it's because he plays like a starter week in week out, not great 40% of the time with terrible play 40% of the time (and relatively neutral play 20%). So based on the OP's hypo, there's a extremely good chance he gets around Hoyer money if he's hot-and-cold, with 2 year deal designed to see what we've got. Maybe he sneaks up to 6M per year, thanks to inflation, but there's just such a no man's land for veteran QBs between 5.25M and 12.25M it's tough to see us bucking the trend in a major way unless some other team bucked the trend first and offered him 8-9M a year, but at that price point, a team might be better off looking to the draft. Post draft I could see an 8-9M deal, but by then he will very likely be signed up somewhere. Now, if he plays differently, that changes the equation significantly, which opens the thread up to much more interesting possibilities to examine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sportjunkie07 Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 It's funny what the national pundits and national fans think of cousins. They haven't watched many of his games and don't have a clue what they're talking about. Most have only seen his worst games vs. The giants and cowboys last year. What they think is, "all he does is throw interceptions." Most gloss over the things he does well. If he continues his play, Id offer 14 mil for 1 year, 22 million for 2 years and 26 mil for 3 years. I would draft a qb to groom next year regardless of what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GhostofAlvinWalton Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 People bring up Matt Flynn... Bad example. Guys liked Flynn and Kolb wised-up football people. They are much more critical and skeptical of back-ups who take over for starters. The point is as invalid as saying, "Scott Mitchell!" Umm...Brian Hoyer, Ryan Mallett, Josh McCown, & Matt Cassel disagree with your assessment. If it was correct...Doug Johnson and Scott Mitchell would have made sure Fynn, Kolb, Hoyer, Mallett, McCown, & Cassel (plus the probably 5 others I forgot) never happened. Three years from now I'll have another 2-3 names for my list. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZRagone Posted October 27, 2015 Author Share Posted October 27, 2015 I don't mind anyone going with the hypothetical, while ALSO giving an answer on a hypothetical that he does worse the second half and one based on him doing better. At least those are still contributing to the conversation. My only issue with those that were suggesting this was based on "one game" or being judged based on "half the season", which the OP made clear it was not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
illone Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 I think it will be a deal very similar to that of Kaepernick and Ryan Tannehill. Assuming he ends the year with 20+ TDs, 15 Ints, he will earn starter money next year and it will be an incentive laden deal that will net him between $15-20MM per year if he hits the incentives, but also have a team clause that protects the Redskins if they move on, a la the Kaep contract with San Fran. Some of you guys are crazy to suggest he would earn $3-5MM. I'm sorry but that is just crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DogofWar1 Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 Umm...Brian Hoyer, Ryan Mallett, Josh McCown, & Matt Cassel disagree with your assessment. If it was correct...Doug Johnson and Scott Mitchell would have made sure Fynn, Kolb, Hoyer, Mallett, McCown, & Cassel (plus the probably 5 others I forgot) never happened. Three years from now I'll have another 2-3 names for my list. There is a pretty big discrepancy in payment though, between the early 2010s and today. Cassel and Kolb got 10M/year contracts back when 10M/year was fairly big money, definitely in starter range. The cost of a starting QB has gone up 60-70% since then. Of the former backups making money right now, Hoyer is making the most, at 5.25M. Mallet got 3.5M. McCown was only making 5M w/ Tampa, and is only making 4.66M now. McCown, coming out of Chicago, and Hoyer out of Cleveland are probably the closest to Kolb and Cassel of the past. There's a progression there, it kind of seems. Back in the late 2000's, early 2010's, teams were willing to shell out big money for a backup, 10M/year. Get to 2012 with Flynn, and it's about 8.66M/year. Shortly thereafter we get down to about 5M/year with Hoyer and McCown. Maybe someone who looks really good will come along and change the trendline, but they'd have to look really good. Better than McCown in 2013, and McCown looked pretty good in 2013 in limited action. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Veryoldschool Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 I know one thing I do not want the Redskins to play quarterback lottery again with a high draft choice with this roster. I want to build the OL and the rest of the roster up before trying to play a college QB. Let's remember what we all thought about the OL before Cousins started. Cousins thinks very quickly and functions well behind our current line but McCoy struggled last year. I'm not going to factor in Robert's sacks because much of that was on Robert who had several other issues holding him back but I think McCoy is a decent litmus test and Colt got sacked way too much. Yes, there have been a couple of changes to the line since 2014 but I think McCoy would still struggle behind our 2015 line. With that in mind I'd rather risk over paying Cousins and keeping a guy that might peak at serviceable for a few years while I invested in building a good OL and roster so if Cousins doesn't improve beyond serviceable to better than average in a 2 or 3 years our team is going to look attractive to a high quality free agent or promising environment for one of the better QB's coming out of college. Denver was able to attract Payton Manning because they had a solid team. The Skins went for Payton too and he passed because the Skins were weak. Serviceable is I think the worse case with Cousins and as the roster improves even serviceable will elevate the W-L record. I am of the opinion it's much more likely he'll become more than serviceable over the next few years given his work habits, talents with more experience and a better roster around him. Before this season most of us were impressed with his flashes of high level performance but concerned about his mental toughness when he made mistakes and whether he could rally from behind. He's shown us progress on both of those items and now we also want to see him reduce his turnovers. He's had a couple of what was he thinking picks but at least 3-4 of them were understandable. A defensive back makes a great play on 50/50 throw to Garcon, Grant slips on his route, a ball thrown a bit behind Garcon gets bobbled and caught by a defender but even when he has thrown multiple picks he's kept his head in the game and finished playing solidly. Three of the last four games he's led drives to win or tie the game, that is impressive and he's carried the team since the running game has been stuffed. I think with his character there is little risk of him getting lazy and peaking at serviceable from lack of effort. Maybe in the end he doesn't get much better but I think the odds are he will so if he finishes the next 9 I hope they decide to give him an attractive extension and invest in his continuing development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedBeast Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 Gruden has 3 years left and so does McDaddy...4 years/32MM with a 10MM signing bonus and 20MM guaranteed. Salary of 3MM, 4MM, 5MM and 6MM. Sign it now. Gruden wont make it past 5. McDaddy will get another contract. Need continuity for awhile. Griffen is gone and McCoy is not the answer as a backup. Need continuity and time to groom the new blood. In three or four years this roster will be very solid and it is a very team friendly contract. It could even go up 10 million more and still be team friendly down the road. Average of 10MM is not ridiculous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tsailand Posted October 28, 2015 Share Posted October 28, 2015 I would give him a one year deal with an option for a second year. The pay range would be on your salary scale: Stewards - maybe $4 million. This is delusional. There are at least ten NFL teams who would give him a better contract, and about twenty more who would give him a decent three-plus year deal. Here's an assignment for you for this bye week: Check your TV schedule, figure out the worst game you get, and watch that one from start to finish (no flipping over to red zone channel). Then come back here and tell us how much you think those teams would pay for Cousins right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSSkinz Posted October 28, 2015 Share Posted October 28, 2015 The better Kirk plays the more tricky this gets, you almost need to pull the trigger and resign him before he earns it. Once he earns it then he has value and if he hits free agency he will be gone and we will have no QB next year. I think if he plays well in the next 3 games regardless if we win or lose you try to lock him up for 2 years @ 10 mil, then you know you have a guy who can run the offense next year. I doubt there will be any QB's in free agency that will be any better and it also buys us time to develop a QB we might draft. I like Kirk but he's a safety valve until we find something better and if he evolves into a keeper than great, either way we need to cover our ass for next year because if Scott keeps adding talent it would be a shame to field a rookie who doesn't know the offense or a journeyman who is no better than KC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
William Barbour Posted October 28, 2015 Share Posted October 28, 2015 Unless he balls out and starts producing on a Rivers type of level. I see him getting a Fitzpatrick or McCown type deal next yr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skins3000 Posted October 28, 2015 Share Posted October 28, 2015 Nobody's giving him $10+ mil per season unless he has comeback victories every other week for the rest of the year. For some reason, he has cemented a national reputation by the casual NFL fan as a "worst QB ever" type of player. Contrast this with how Ryan Fitzpatrick was perceived when he signed his deal, which was "Oh wow, he actually didn't look ****ty for such a late round draft pick...maybe he's good?" For example, look at any Bucs' newspaper headline and you'll see some variation of, "The Bucs are so bad that Kirk effing Cousins just had the largest comeback victory in Redskins history against them. Kirk. Cousins." Same thing happened against Philly etc. Other team's bringing Cousins into their organizations and trying to sell that move to their fanbase would be similar to Shanahan bringing John Beck in here in 2011 and saying he has full faith in him - the fans are not going to buy it. Now, IMO Cousins' rep as a punchline is completely undeserved (he's been in the top 10-20 range by footballoutsiders' metrics for the past 2 seasons, which is more or less accurate to my eye), but that's his reputation. And I have replied to a post before about Kirk and his options as to teams because one, Kirk is a system quarterback and not just a quarterback that can adapt his game to any system. I say now and scream it again, Kirk chance at a respectable contract is here and only here. If Kirk hits the open market, A. He would have to compete for a roster spot. B. Kirk will be offered back up money equivalent to less than $3 million because of salary cap reasons as a general manager because a team is not breaking the bank on quarterback that has been up and down in his career thus far. Now if Kirk wins the next 7 games and this team is 10 and 6 in the playoffs then maybe a team would be knocking down Cousins door outside this organization but until then fans just need to be realistic about this team quarterback situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCoach22 Posted October 28, 2015 Share Posted October 28, 2015 Umm...Brian Hoyer, Ryan Mallett, Josh McCown, & Matt Cassel disagree with your assessment. If it was correct...Doug Johnson and Scott Mitchell would have made sure Fynn, Kolb, Hoyer, Mallett, McCown, & Cassel (plus the probably 5 others I forgot) never happened. Three years from now I'll have another 2-3 names for my list. Check the contracts of those guys. Tier 3, not Tier 1B money... That was my point since the thread is about salary. He doesn't break bank on this contract short of a unexpected playoff run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Koolblue13 Posted October 28, 2015 Share Posted October 28, 2015 If Kirk can make a jump next year, like he did to this year, I don't care what he costs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Audible_Red40 Posted October 28, 2015 Share Posted October 28, 2015 I agree it's still too early. But Hypothetically, if he continues the same game at the same pace, and he and the FO are comfortable with that, you can expect no less then 7-12 million per year, and probably no less the 4 years. He does have command of this offense. A few o-linemen and a deep threat could help. He just has to be more consistent and cut down on those mistakes. So if I was to guess "hypothetically", I'm saying ballpark 4 years $35 million area. That's just the going gate for starting QB's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Audible_Red40 Posted October 28, 2015 Share Posted October 28, 2015 I would draft a qb to groom next year regardless of what happens. We've been grooming QB's into the dirt for the last 24 years. Name one QB that we've groomed that turned out ok!?!?! Cousins in his 4th year right now is groomed. Couldn't even work with Connor Halliday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DJD2 Posted October 28, 2015 Share Posted October 28, 2015 Unless he totally ****s the bid the rest of the season I think they offer him a deal somewhere in the range of 4 yrs for 30 M with 8 M guaranteed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbothwel Posted October 28, 2015 Share Posted October 28, 2015 And I have replied to a post before about Kirk and his options as to teams because one, Kirk is a system quarterback and not just a quarterback that can adapt his game to any system. I say now and scream it again, Kirk chance at a respectable contract is here and only here. If Kirk hits the open market, A. He would have to compete for a roster spot. B. Kirk will be offered back up money equivalent to less than $3 million because of salary cap reasons as a general manager because a team is not breaking the bank on quarterback that has been up and down in his career thus far. Now if Kirk wins the next 7 games and this team is 10 and 6 in the playoffs then maybe a team would be knocking down Cousins door outside this organization but until then fans just need to be realistic about this team quarterback situation. Another reference point is Matt Schaub after being traded to the Texans. He signed a 6/48 deal in 2008 which would be equal to a 6/64 deal next year. Again, I see Cousins doing better in the second half of this year due to increased comfort in the system/personnel and the addition of DJax and Reed along with the emergence of Carrier and especially Crowder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GhostofAlvinWalton Posted October 29, 2015 Share Posted October 29, 2015 Check the contracts of those guys. Tier 3, not Tier 1B money... That was my point since the thread is about salary. He doesn't break bank on this contract short of a unexpected playoff run. I agree with this point. My problem was with the "Guys liked Flynn and Kolb wised-up football people" statement. This league is so QB dependent that GMs will continue to make rash/short sighted/crazy/stupid moves when it comes to the QB position. If you don't have one you are desperate for one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CBass1724 Posted October 29, 2015 Share Posted October 29, 2015 I think we can mostly all agree that QB's are wayyyyyy overpaid in relation to the salary cap. Plus there are plenty of terrible QB's that make over $10M a year. http://overthecap.com/position/quarterback/ This is a list of QB contracts/salaries. Pretty cool to see, really. There are 18 quarterbacks that avg $16M in salary per year. EIGHTEEN!!! If by the end of the season KFC is a top 20 quarterback in the decision-maker's minds, then he could easily command $15M or more per year. It's the same logic that was used to pick up RG3's option. If you have quality quarterback play in the NFL, it's "worth" $18-20M per season in the minds of team executives. Teams seem to view paying $15M or less to a functional QB as cheap. IMO I don't see why game managers should be paid more than $10M, or even $5M for that matter. That money could be better spent as depth elsewhere for a ton of these teams. That's why the Niners and Seahawks had a great few year run with their cheap quarterbacks on rookie deals. That money went to their defenses, which were freaking amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riggo-toni Posted October 29, 2015 Share Posted October 29, 2015 Let's see if he ever wins a game on the road or beats a team with a winning record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted October 29, 2015 Share Posted October 29, 2015 Can we wait for Cousins to play few games in a row at a high level before talking about contracts? If the season ended today, I'd maybe offer a 2-3 year deal worth $10-15M total (average of about $5M). I need to see consistency and he hasn't shown that yet. I'd rather move on and either draft a QB or a stopgap. And his agent would laugh in your face. You guys need to read through this thread then go study current starting QB salaries in the NFL. I said he was getting at least 10 mill per year earlier in the thread. If he is your true starter 10 Mill per year is a bargain in the current NFL. He will probably actually average quite a bit more than that with a back loaded deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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