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2015 Tropical Weather


Larry

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Im following the discussions at Storm2k.org.

 

This storm could do just about anything. 

 

The stronger it gets though, the less likely it is to hit FL.  If it stays weak and less organized, it will probably have a FL land hit.  But probably at a TS or Cat 1.

 

It's been flip flopping for a few days.  None of the models seem to be able to accurately predict the next move.

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Maybe.  Still too early to tell anything.

 

It seriously could end up dying completely in the next 2 days.  It could head to Texas.  It could wrap into the gulf.  Unfortunately, if it DOES strengthen, it becomes more likely to turn north and could affect the Carolinas

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I'm in Fort Lauderdale. Just moved here a year and a half ago. Stores are emptying out pretty quick. This will be my first hurricane down in FL. Putting up my shutters tonight as a precaution. If anyone else needs help with what to do, what supplies to get or if you live near me and need help with shutter install, etc... PM me. I'm a residential property manager by trade so I deal with the emergency preparedness and teach classes on a regular basis.


We're headed to the Nags Head in the Outer Banks for a week starting Sunday, 8/30.  Is this going to ruin our week, weather-wise?

 

I imagine you'll be getting some heavy rain and decent winds for a day or two... main concern would be actually getting down there without having to drive through the rains. May want to see if you can leave a day early.

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Looks like it's heading for Miami for the moment.

 

It's going to get us one way or another (Wilma was cast as a Cat 1 in the mid-2000's and ended up being deadly and disastrous). Luckily it's flat land so we have the potential for flooding but not deadly mudslides like that of the Caribbean and Bahamas.

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Oops, didn't know this thread was here. Could have told everyone Erika was going to be a non event. The biggest threat to the U.S. is/was Ignacio, north of Hawaii. Tropical storm watches up for a few islands. It's going to pass well north but the outer fringes may affect some areas. No biggie.

Back in the Atlantic, tropical storm, soon to be hurricane, Fred has developed way out threatening the Cape Verde islands. Hurricane warnings up for them.

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  • 1 month later...

Bump for Hurricane Patricia, about to decimate the pacific coast of Mexico... https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2015/10/22/extremely-dangerous-category-4-hurricane-patricia-to-slam-west-coast-of-mexico-friday/

The storm somehow went from tropical storm to the strongest storm ever recorded, 200mph sustained winds, in like 36 hours.

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Bump for Hurricane Patricia, about to decimate the pacific coast of Mexico... https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2015/10/22/extremely-dangerous-category-4-hurricane-patricia-to-slam-west-coast-of-mexico-friday/

The storm somehow went from tropical storm to the strongest storm ever recorded, 200mph sustained winds, in like 36 hours.

I've been doing some research on this. I ended up on the Wikipedia page for Typhoon Nancy in 1961:

A reconnaissance aircraft flying into the typhoon near its peak intensity on September 12 determined Nancy's one-minute sustained winds to be 185 knots (215 mph; 345 km/h). If these values are reliable, they would be the highest wind speeds ever measured in a tropical cyclone.[6] However, it was later determined that measurements and estimations of wind speeds from the 1940s to 1960s were excessive. Thus, Nancy's winds may actually be lower than its official best-track value.[6] If Nancy did indeed have 215 mph winds, it would have had the fastest sustained wind speed of any tropical cyclone by 15 mph. Typhoon Tip, Typhoon Grace, Hurricane Allen, Typhoon Vera, and Typhoon Sarah all had winds of 190 mph. In addition, Hurricane Patricia had winds of 200 mph which is the strongest verified 1-minute maximum sustained winds ever reliably recorded in a tropical cyclone.

They don't mention Typhoon Ida (1958), which was recorded as having 200 mph 1-minute sustained winds. As the quote mentions though, the wind speed measurements at the time may have been exaggerated a bit.

Nonetheless, it looks like the strongest ever recorded in the western hemisphere. Overtook Hurricane Allen from 1980, which had 190 mph 1-minute sustained winds.

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