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GHH's Draft Observations: The Good, The Bad and The 'Utter Frustration at What Could Have Been' Chicago, Illinois: Macs First Test.


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So having slept on it, here's my musings on our draft. Post game observation thread style. Having been laid up for a lot of the past month or so with a badly broken foot, along with doing the ES Mock, has really allowed me to get into this draft in detail. All I seem to of done is researched, read up, watched tape and listened to scouting shows to fill the boredom.. And as such I was as clued up as I've been in a long while going in so without further ado, let's get into this:

 

 

The Good.

 

Scot G. McCloughan. 

 

We went into our first draft THIS CENTURY, and first since 1999; with a proven, bonafide football GM. That right there is a MASSIVE plus for this franchise. And what I did love, another MASSIVE change and plus for this long wretched organisation, was he had a plan and he stuck to it regardless. The three main themes appeared to be:

 

Toughness. Bigger, physical guys with a hard working, mental toughness. The new edict we're trying to instil and the type of team he wants to mould us into. And he filled that MO in most every pick. 

 

Special Teams. You don't have to be a reader of these here pages to know just how historically bad, season in, season out, in ALL facets our not so special teams have been. The back end of this draft in particular set about addressing that with the type of toughness mentioned above.

 

Competition.  Regardless of what we think of the actually players taken (more on them next), he added strong competition in some key areas of need. Particularly on the offensive line which should, for once, lead to genuine camp battles and not just chummy Coaches favourites making the team regardless. 

 

Round 1. Pick 5 overall. OG. Brandon Scherff. Snr. University of Iowa. 

 

I really, really like this pick. I've always been one that guard was too high a position to take top 10 unless it was some widely agreed, utterly outstanding talent. And when Williams, the single best overall talent IMHO the entire draft was passed over; I can't not say I wasn't utterly shocked. (More on him later.). And I'd of loved to of moved down a few spots for Brandon but that's all relative to there being any willing partners which we don't know if there actually was.  But to take Scherff for this team was a fantastic move. We've been crying out for high calibre, high pick OLinemen for years and boy do we have one. Talent wise there's very little to NOT love with this pick. This is as safe a top 5 pick as you can get. High calibre guy with a top notch football character. 

 

The only downside is he's going to be starting at RT, down to there not being a starting calibre RT on the entire roster when his skill set is far better suited to play inside in a smaller space at guard; where he could be very much the all pro stud that Trent W is at LT. 

 

But he'll do an adequate job in the interim outside, and will give us an absolute beast for years to come inside when we finally get our RT. 

 

Round 4. Pick 6/ 105. WR. Jamison Crowder. Snr. Duke University. 

 

I LOVE this pick. And the value a round below where I had him. We just added the instant top slot receiver, kick and punt returner who has every chance right now to be the number 3 receiver on this team. He might be pint-sized, but he's a great route runner with even better ball skills who's a demon in space. A real creative OC could do wonders with this addition to his arsenal. Not to mention his punt return ability's that will probably also see him handed the kick-off duties which he did excellently his freshman year. 

 

I'm confident he'll see a LOT of the field in year one. 

 

Round 5. Pick 5/ 141. LB Martrell Spright. Snr. University of Arkansas. 

 

Quality LB depth in a multitude of positions who can both be relied upon when needed and will push the starters for playing time. Fits the mould of what we're building perfectly and he'll be a beast on teams coverage. Needs to reel his aggressiveness in and be more disciplined, but that should come with better coaching. Forget the size. This is one tough ass lil' SOB. The type of core building block on your roster you need. 

 

And I'm going to put the next player in both the 'Good' and 'Bad categories so we'll end and start with him .....

 

Round 4. Pick 13/ 112. OG. Arie Kouandjio. Snr. University of Alabama. 

 

As regards solid, starting calibre talent, who also fits the bigger, tougher mould we targeted, this is a very solid pick. He could easily of been a third rounder. A very effective mauling LG for the Tide and an instant 'talent' upgrade who would walk straight into the starting 5 on our offensive front.

 

BUT .....

 

 

The Bad. 

 

 

Round 4. Pick 13/ 112. OG. Arie Kouandjio. Snr. University of Alabama. 

 

How long of a career will he have? He was heavily red flagged on a lot of teams boards down to the medical evals on a guy who's already had multiple knee surgeries. (Malcolm Kelly comes instantly to mind.) His character and ability aren't in question. His durability at the pro level most certainly is. And for a team with a real poor, to be kind, OL situation to begin with; gambling on an extra pick just outside the top 100 you worked so hard to acquire is just completely fool hardy. Even more so when you've both been through this before and there was better caliber of line talent that completely fits your new profile of player still on the board. Texas A&M's Jarvis Harrison for example who would of gone on day 2 had it not been for his character/ desire question marks. But in round 4, with an extra pick acquired in a trade down, he's worth every bit the gamble as much as a lesser talented guy with a SERIOUS injury question mark against his name. 

 

If he stays healthy, it's a decent take. But if he doesn't, which is a very probable fear; it's another in a VERY long line of VERY questionable, blown Redskins OL picks. 

 

Talking of VERY risky injury gambles, step forward .....

 

Round 3. Pick 31/ 95. RB. Matt Jones. Jnr. University of Florida. 

 

This one makes so little sense on so many level's and is the one REAL reach for a position they needed that gives you big pause on Mac's alleged 'BPA' policy. 

 

Did we need a big, physical, move the chains back to add to the group? Hell yes. And Jones' tape shows flashes of athleticism his stats don't. He completely fits the 'toughness' mould we targeted. 

 

But this was our THIRD pick in the draft. Which we choose to use on a THIRD DOWN RB with, wait for it ..... MULTIPLE knee surgery's that have continued to trouble him and cause him to miss playing time. 

 

This is a shockingly BAD pick IMHO. If you're going to compliment Morris with a RB in the third round, you compliment him with one with a far better skill set than Jones who can do what The Butler can't. Break one. Hell, even as bigger, bowling ball type back, Mike Davis was a far better option still on the board. Not to mention the very well rounded Javorius Allen out of USC. What you DON'T do is use a darn valuable high pick on a guy who will be just a short yardage, third down back with VERY questionable injury concerns. You could of taken him or someone similar a couple of rounds later. 

 

And to compound a VERY questionable second day, step forward .....

 

Round 2. Pick 6/ 38. DE. Preston Smith. Snr. Mississippi State University. 

 

Folk have tried to justify it (..... 'we're in nickel 60/70 % of the time in our 34 with a 4 man front' ..... thanks, wouldn't of known that if I hadn't done a darn thread on the D a whiles back); I'm still NO closer to reasoning why we took a 43, hand in the dirt DE. NOT an edge rusher. A traditional, hand in the dirt 43 run stuffing left DE. Someone who sets the edge and has some pass rush ability down to his size when he moves inside as a gap penetrator. Which is what he did at Mississippi State. Moved inside on 3rd downs as a 'shaded' NT and his size destroyed centres. 

 

I researched this guy a lot for our ES Mock as part of my DL eval. for Dallas and Marinelli's 43. But as a 34 OLB ..... ? 270 LBS, big, bulky. No real burst to get round the edge. Tires easily in games and needs to be heavily rotated ..... I like him for what he does and he's a borderline top 40 pick for me, which would of made this a very good value, quality selection ..... in the right system. 

 

We've basically taken a guy we'll use in sub packages that we don't really know what to do with. At 38 on a team DESPERATELY needing DAY ONE STARTERS that high!

 

This gets even more compounded by the fact we overlooked the single best player in the draft in the USC linemen Leonard Williams at the 5th overall position, to then go get the same darn position but at a MUCH lesser talent the next round. As mentioned previous, I really like that we took Scherff. But a combo of the same positions in Williams and say South Carolina's Cann or Hobart's Marpet FAR outweighs a combo of Scherff and Smith. 

 

As bad a second round pick as last years take of Trent Murphy. (A back up LB when there was FAR better, starting calibre talent there for the taking.).

 

Consider this for thought ...... In their respective top 3 picks this year, the rest of the NFC East came out with 3 immediate starters (Giants)/ 2 starters and a quality back-up (Eagles)/ and 2 immediate starters and much needed OL depth behind the best offensive front in football. (Cowboys.). 

 

Your Washington Redskins came out with 1 top notch starter they plan to play pout of position limiting his potential; and situational player that fits a completely different scheme and skill set; and a third down RB with massive injury concerns. 

 

Easy to see why the rest of the Division isn't overly troubled by our time in Chicago. 

 

The Back End. 

 

I will say I know next to nothing about the 5th through 7th rounders as I didn't evaluate them. So it's maybe a touch harsh to put these in the bad. And they do seem like they can add solidly to teams if they manage to stick. But I'm mindful in scenarios when I'm blind to the views of my goto Scout who has a ridiculously high hit rate and is one of the best analysts out there. Dane Brugler. In Brugler's top notch draft book, he had the center Reiter as the number 41 overall center and not even a PFA; the wideout Spencer his 62nd ranked receiver and not a PFA; and the CB Mitchell his 55th ranked corner. Again, not even a PFA. (Jarrett had a 6th/ 7th round grade and reads as a possible roster filler.). 

 

Is that bad when the latter rounds are essentially flyers regardless? Not at all. But when Brugler's not even got the guys we drafted as PFA, that tells me there's little chance of them sticking and we could of looked at better options. Talent was still out there that had dropped. 

 

 

The 'Utter Frustration at What Could Have Been' Chicago, Illinois: Macs First Test. 

 

 

In summary, I'm left feeling VERY mixed and VERY lukewarm on Macs initial draft.

 

I love the new attitude he's trying to instil here and the type of 'meat and potatoes' proper  football players he's targeting. I love the competition he's trying to bring in across the board. But some of the moves he's made on his first big outing (and I can't even cover it with the fact he hasn't been here long and hasn't got his own staff. This is a guy that eats, drinks and sleeps evaluation and knows the talent and needs out there. The final buck stops with him regardless. Good or bad) are a combination of big head scratchers, big reaches, and even bigger risks. Particularly high up where we could ill afford to gamble. 

 

I have the utmost faith in Mac. He's the ONLY one that's keeping me with ANY faith for our future and he get's the benefit of the doubt because of what he's achieved in a short space of time and the respect he deserves. 

 

But this first outing wasn't a good one and leaves you frustrated that it could of been SO much better. 

 

Draft One of the McCloughan era, right here, right now on what we have to go on, get's a disappointing C+ from me.

 

Not overly bad, but one with FAR more question marks than answers when it frustratingly could all of been SO much better IMHO 

 

As always, feel free to add and discuss at your leisure. 

 

Hail. 

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Just one other voice, but Kiper's outlook was surprisingly more positive. I know your no fan of his:

 

 

Kiper Grade:

 

Top needs: OL, OLB, ILB, S

I don't think there was a softer team in the NFL the past season than the Redskins, especially on defense, where they simply didn't tackle. If there was a clear trend with this draft, it was a new GM drafting for toughness and attitude. Washington got a lot tougher on both sides of the ball in the first two rounds. I know there are questions about whether Brandon Scherff can stay at tackle in the NFL (he was a LT at Iowa), but even if he's a guard, while the pick value loses a little, the guy is a true mauler, a player who makes the run game better the second he steps on the field. Whether it's right tackle (makes sense) or guard, Scherff is a starter now. Preston Smith could have come off the board in Round 1, so to get him in Round 2 was minor coup. That's a clear need at OLB, and he can move around too. Matt Jones was a bit rich for me in terms of value, but it's all preference on RB at that point. Jamison Crowder is a small player, but again, a tough kid who has been hugely productive. Bill Polian threw out a Wes Welker comparison, and he doesn't typically exaggerate. Later on, they again got more physical with Arie Kouandjio and Martrell Spaight. When I went through tape with Jon Gruden, Spaight was one of his favorite players in the entire draft. I agree with Mr. McShay that everywhere you look, they got tougher. Overall, I was really impressed with this draft.

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This seems like a good thread to discuss general feelings about the draft, as a whole.  I didn't want to start one, so I'll use yours. 

 

I got the impression, reading the draft scouting thread, that there really aren't any players out there that aren't going to need time to grow into the NFL.  (Heck, I don't think there was a single player mentioned, for our #5 pick, that didn't rely on the player's potential, to recommend him.) 

 

Well, the feel I get is that several of our picks fall in the category of "might grow into a starter, in a few years, but they can play ST right now". 

 

I think, before, it felt more like "let's get a guy who projects as a backup, who can play ST".  People who were drafted first for ST, and secondary as a backup.  Now the feel I'm getting is more the likes of "Where do we stash this guy, while we groom him?  How about ST?" 

 

Maybe it's just my B&G colored glasses, but I get the feeling that the philosophy, this offseason, isn't focused on "we've got to fix this right now", but rather "if we do this, for five years in a row, we'll be a really solid team".  

 

Someone pointed out that we already have our #1 and 2 WR on the roster.  But that we picked two more, and brought in 4 others. 

 

I think our FO is paying more attention to long term things, than in the past. 

 

That or they're idiots.  :)

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This seems like a good thread to discuss general feelings about the draft, as a whole.  I didn't want to start one, so I'll use yours. 

 

.....

 

That's what these threads are there for Larry. They've developed into the prefect post game discussion among those that want to discuss everything, good or bad. 

 

I've just gotten lax the latter part of last season in putting them up dude to the piss poor nature of the team and the darn time it takes to go through everything.  :lol:.

 

Hail. 

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Posted Today, 09:20 AM

http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/nfl/draft/2015/05/02/first-impressions-rankings-jets-leonard-williams-jaguars-vikings-trae-waynes/26793997/  New GM Scot McCloughan set a new — and wise — tone, #Redskins

 

First impression: Loved it

 

8. Washington Redskins: Must have been exciting to participate in the first round for the first time since 2012. New GM Scot McCloughan set a new — and wise — tone, taking highly respected Iowa OL Brandon Scherff fifth overall. McCloughan also added other supplementary pieces that should enable him to better evaluate whether Robert Griffin III is his long-term answer under center. Keep an eye on second-round OLB Preston Smith, too.


Check out Bucky Brooks comparing Crowder to Antonio Brown in detail: http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000431897/article/scouts-take-jamison-crowder-like-steelers-antonio-brown 


 Chris Rock retweeted

Today, choose to be happy. Choose to be grateful for the day. Choose to look on the bright side.

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I think the best part of Matt Jones's game is his pass protection. A running back who can pass protect was a big need. Now on third downs we can line up young and jones in the backfield and have two players capable of staying at home or catching swing passes that move chains.

 

Third down conversion rate has been this teams largest problem on offense. I think we'll see a lot Matt jones/derrel young swing receptions for 4-6 yards and a first on third down this year. 

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Enjoyed reading your post.  I see the logic behind your concerns.  Hopefully, whatever Scot's plan is works out exactly as he imagines.  In truth, no one truly knows who is going to be a star, make a solid contribution, or flat out bust. 

 

Hope still springs eternal. :)

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I agree with all the good, and I'll keep my eye on the things that you weren't satisfied with.

 

We won't hit on all of these players, no team does.  

 

The Scherff pick, and the way he took his guy regardless, made me feel good going into the whole draft.

 

The bottom line for me is that I feel he got players he wanted, and I'm sure he missed on a few, but he knows these players.

 

Cerrato called #98 Orapko when he drafted him, his #1 pick that he studied for a couple years?  lol.

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No offense to Brugler, but he DID have early in the second round Clemmings going 34th overall,  Landon Collins 36th overall, Hundley going 37th overall, Harold 39th overall and Bryce Petty 41st.  That's to say clearly a lot of NFL GMs greatly disagreed with him on a lot of picks and he doesnt see things quite like an NFL scout does.  I think judging any draft immediately after it is pretty impossible as a players success in the NFL is not made in college.  Everyone laughed at who the Cowboys drafted for the past couple of years and nobody is laughing now.  I think Murphy is being thrown under the bus way too early for as good as he was in his rookie year, and Preston Smith might greatly surprise some people.

 

In reality, if he hits on 4 of those 10 players it was a phenominal draft.

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1) I loved the Brandon Scerff pick and understand why they did it, but the Leonard Williams pick would have been the best pick for the long haul.

2) Preston Smith is a very very good player.  I have a lot of friends who are Ravens fans and they wanted him badly.  He will be a move OLB, who also can rush the passer from the inside and out.

3) I didn't like the RB pick at all, not sure what they saw with him, especially with Buck Allen and Jay Ajayi still on the board.  Ajayi's medical obviously scared them and many other teams away.

4) Jamison Crowder is a steal and agree with where they got him.  He provides KR/PR experience and will be a play maker from the slot.  That being said, I wouild have rather had Kenny Bell, Tre McBride or Stefon Diggs at this point. 

5) Martell Spaight.  Absolutely loved this pick as he can add depth to many positions.

6) Evan Spencer - just because a there is a Redskins scout that is his brother shouldn't be a reason to draft a player.  McBride was still out there at this point as well.

 

Overall I believe this was a pretty good draft.  Maybe a B - and will only get better when we add more scouts (we have too small a staff) and replace scouts with his own team. 

 

HTTR

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Eh, I think it's impossible to grade a draft for a while.  Personally, I like that we looked for tough, strong guys.  Will all 10 of them make the team? No.  

 

Perry Smith:

I personally like the Perry Smith pick.  A lot of folks thought he was a back-end of the 1st round type of guy.  He's a guy that is very athletic (actually had better measurable than Fowler at the combine), and is tough and strong, and can get after the QB.  

 

They can use him in a lot of different ways, and he's going to push Murphy as well.  Having those guys who are really smart, tough and versatile are worth their weight in gold. 

 

The 'Skins also like Murphy against the run, but he's not a great rusher.  So this also allows you to swap them out and get 2 guys doing what they do best.

 

I also look at him as a day 1 starter.  He won't play every snap, but that's ok.  He can be an impact right away.

 

Matt Jones:

 

I actually liked this pick also, because none of the backs that we have on the roster can block anybody.  Morris isn't good at it, Helu regressed, and now he's gone.  Maybe Redd would be ok.  Not sure.

 

But Jones brings size and toughness to the RB position, can be a short yardage guy, and can be a 3rd down guy in certain situations where you know you need some blitz pickup help.  They can have him alternate with Thompson, who can be more of that speed guy.

 

He also brings size and toughness to ST.  Which I think is very important.

 

I also see him as a day 1 contributor.  Not starter, but definitely a contributor.  And as much as I like Silas Redd, I think Jones brings things to the table he does not.

 

EDIT: One more thing: I HATE It when people say "this team reached for this guy or another guy."  NOBODY knows who's a reach and who isn't.  If you like a guy, then somebody else might like that guy. So when Kiper/McShay or any of the other folks say, "You could have had him 5 picks later!" or whatever, it's complete, total, and in every possible way bologna.   For all we know, Jones gets picked by the next team up if we don't snag him.  Or he's not available the next time the 'Skins pick.  

 

That is one of the things that REALLY gets under my skin from all of the pundits.  If they actually knew diddly-poo, they wouldn't be commenting on it, they'd be doing it. (With the exception of Kiper, who had a HUGE hand in creating this cottage industry before it was a cottage industry. .)

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This is why I don't understand the internet. We all, rightly, celebrated hiring McCloughan as probably the best evaluator in the NFL and then as soon as he has a draft in charge we're questioning him over a fourth round pick who he undoubtedly knows so much more than we do...

 

After the initial surprise in taking Scherff subsided, I love this draft. We clearly had a plan and stuck to it. We wanted to become a much more physical team with that will to win and every one of our players drafted helps that. Also the emphasis on special teams makes complete sense to me.

 

But more importantly, we're just guys on the internet. What is the point in hiring a great evaluator like McCloughan if we're just going to panic over his work from a position of ignorance? I'm happy to give him a couple of offseasons to really mould the team into what he wants it to be before judging.

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The simple fact of the matter is no one really knows.  Whether you are a casual fan who just has favorite college players, a moderately interested fan who actually looks at tape and does some study etc. or a so called expert, none of you know how this or any other draft is going to turn out.  There are long lists of can't miss high draft choices who were busts in the NFL and late round draft picks who turned out to be solid players in the NFL and even stars.  Heck there are UDFA with the same story.  So the fact of the matter is that until they have an opportunity to prove on the field that they can play against NFL competition on a consistent basis, no one knows and all this evaluation about how good your draft was is just idle talk.  I am happy that we have a person calling the shots who has a track record of being successful at this level, something this team has really not had I guess in 20 years, and at this point I will trust his judgment over anyone who is writing analyzing on this board.  The fact of the matter is that if our current team is an average roster, 67% of these picks are not going to make the roster.  I think that puts it in perspective.

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I love the Preston smith pick. He can kick down as a de and one gap very well. May not press the edge well, but he was also playing in a 2 gap system. Has a lot of solid inside moves and with players like Knighton and paea on the line, it will help. Matt jones I can go either way on. Arguing about anyththing after round 4 is kind of a crapshoot. I think Spaith eventually takes over for riley on the inside.

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I have to agree with those that love the Smith pick. He is definite 1st round talent. Frankly, compared to Shane Ray, I'd rather have Smith. So, couldn't disagree more with your sentiments there. It was a steal IMO and regardless of package he can play all 4 downs if needed.

The back end is probably impossible for any mediot to analyze. I would guess Brugler didn't spend more than a YouTube highlight on these guys. I'd like to think GMSM did more research.

Finally, if I were to grade just landing the following: Scherff, Smith, Jones, Crowder, Spaight and Arie I would go A-. The Jones pick is the only slight in 5 otherwise solid A picks. Maybe a C+ for Jones, but no doubt has upside that ceiling can be very high.

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I couldn't quite understand the RB pick at all. But I don't study these guys. Thanks for the solid evals so I can be disappointed also.

 

Thanks man but hopefully we won't ultimately won't be. 

 

Love your analysis GHH. Can't disagree on the Jones reach.

That being said. In Scotty Mac I trust until proven otherwise. Doesn't mean he's exempt from criticism.

 

Nail on head as always KG. Thank you. 

 

I think the best part of Matt Jones's game is his pass protection. A running back who can pass protect was a big need. Now on third downs we can line up young and jones in the backfield and have two players capable of staying at home or catching swing passes that move chains.

 

Third down conversion rate has been this teams largest problem on offense. I think we'll see a lot Matt jones/derrel young swing receptions for 4-6 yards and a first on third down this year. 

 

But in the top 100? And with a serious medical history to boot?

 

One question, how organized has the Free Agency, the Draft and now UDFA been? Isn't that telling of Scots acumen.

 

Agreed. Now who's questioning Macs 'acumen' exactly?  ;)

 

We're naturally debating his judgement over several picks it's true given the very real concerns there. 

 

But nobody doubts his general judgement to be our GM as far as I can tell reading the boards since his arrival. 

 

This is why I don't understand the internet. We all, rightly, celebrated hiring McCloughan as probably the best evaluator in the NFL and then as soon as he has a draft in charge we're questioning him over a fourth round pick who he undoubtedly knows so much more than we do...

 

.....

 

But more importantly, we're just guys on the internet. What is the point in hiring a great evaluator like McCloughan if we're just going to panic over his work from a position of ignorance? I'm happy to give him a couple of offseasons to really mould the team into what he wants it to be before judging.

 

Meh, the internet is just a wider ranging tool for that discussion. The same discussion's have always gone on between fans regarding there team and rightly so. We are the life blood of the game after all. But what the Internet has done is make researching and evaluating guys a lot easier than it ever was. 

 

And glad we're on the same page in not panicking and giving Mac the time he needs to build this the way he wants. 

 

Doesn't mean to say we can't discuss the rights of wrongs of that along the way though.  ;).

 

.....

 

EDIT: One more thing: I HATE It when people say "this team reached for this guy or another guy."  NOBODY knows who's a reach and who isn't.  If you like a guy, then somebody else might like that guy. So when Kiper/McShay or any of the other folks say, "You could have had him 5 picks later!" or whatever, it's complete, total, and in every possible way bologna.   For all we know, Jones gets picked by the next team up if we don't snag him.  Or he's not available the next time the 'Skins pick.  

.....

 

That's not strictly true as you're connected to all other 31 teams at the touch of a button and know what they plan on doing or not. 

 

Prime example, I called a few of the Cowboys picks 4 or 5 picks before they happened in the draft thread down to watching the Dallas War Room and the Jones' and co on the 'phones to teams below them and then them whooping and hollering that they knew their guy was there and they could sit tight and wait for him to fall. (The next call when the DC or positional coach took the 'phone to welcome the pick before it was called just made it easier.). 

 

So to run with your example, moving up or down within a small number of places pretty much is an exact science and not down to chance. 

 

Hail. 

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I'll say this. I tried to stay pretty quiet on the offseason moves so far and haven't analyzed draft picks too much this year. But one thing that bothers me is that according to Gruden, we didn't go after DL because we had already addressed that area, which signifies a nonBPA approach.

That said, i don't really care where guys were protected to go because it's generally a wash. We sign udfas who are projected mid rounders, and we sign mid rounders who are projected udfas. But just seeing the success rates of the draft in general should show that its not a science.

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