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The Non-Winter Weather Thread

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On 9/12/2018 at 7:03 PM, tshile said:

So another win for the euro?

 

gfs has a bad track record when the two diverge 

 

Keep that in mind in the coming winter months.

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2 hours ago, TheGreatBuzz said:

I would be that asshole who didn't evacuate sitting on my roof with a fishing pole. 

 

And a razor to keep your balls shaved. 

 

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3 hours ago, TheGreatBuzz said:

I would be that asshole who didn't evacuate sitting on my roof with a fishing pole. 

 

Is this you?

 

 

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On 9/12/2018 at 9:19 PM, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

Definitely.  I've got a lot of family in SC and NC too and this storm has been giving me anxiety.

 

100 year floods and terrible storms are the new annual reality for people living on the Gulf and the Southeast Atlantic coast now.  All we can do is pray these things don't hit us and feel sorry for the ones that get it.

 

Same. Think we can do more then that, though, or at least we should try to.

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Quote

As Hurricane Florence brings trillions of gallons of water ashore, the storm is headed straight for some of the largest concentrations of hog farms in the county. And there's no getting around it: with those pigs, comes a lot of, er ... wet waste.

 

Most of that excrement sits in open-air pits, known as "lagoons," which blanket the landscape of North Carolina just inland from the coast. If flooding causes those pits to overflow or fail entirely, huge swaths of land could be contaminated with feces-laced water.
 
The plentiful waste pits are one of a number of environmental hazards in the path of Florence, including Superfund sites, coal plants and chemical factories.
 
A 2016 study by the Environmental Working Group and Waterkeeper Alliance identified more than 4,000 animal waste pits in North Carolina where pig and chicken excrement is collected.

https://www.cnn.com/2018/09/13/politics/florence-environmental-hazards/index.html

 

pfiesteria.  pfiesteria everywhere. 

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Where do all these news people stay during a hurricane? They always stand out there and then go away for a while and come back out unscathed. I would just find out where they're camping out and go there.  lol

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14 hours ago, tshile said:

Is the gfs better at winter storms?

 

i honestly only pay attention to the hurricanes

 

No, the Euro is better at everything*.

 

*Most of the time

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13 hours ago, Destino said:

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Labours_of_Hercules#Fifth_labour:_Augean_stables

 

Quote

The fifth labour was to clean the stables of King Augeas. This assignment was intended to be both humiliating (rather than impressive, as the previous labours had been) and impossible, since the livestock were divinely healthy (and immortal) and therefore produced an enormous quantity of dung. The Augean /ɔːˈdʒiːən/ Stables had not been cleaned in over 30 years, and over 1,000 cattle lived there. However, Hercules succeeded by re-routing the rivers Alpheus and Peneus to wash out the filth.

 

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Wilmington has gotten 20 inches of rain so far.  Will get close to forty.  

 

We're not getting near the winds here in Greenville, NC, but we're still gonna get probably 15 inches of rain.  It's a relentless storm.

 

New Bern, Morehead City, Wrightsville Beach all suffering catastrophic losses.  A sad day for my beloved home state.

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Let me get this straight : we've gone from Virginia to being in a state of emergency, to Georgia in a state of emergency, to what looks the center of the storm passing right over West Virginia?  We may need to have a serious conversation about our model system and levels of emergency preparedness (like a step below state of the emergency or something).  I still support the mandatory evacuations, better safe then sorry, but we have to get better at our predictions so we aren't telling people to go where all the sudden the storm is going.  That's insane.

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2 hours ago, Mr. Sinister said:

That **** really pisses me off. I get this is your Super Bowl, but c'mon 

It's not even really a great acting job.  He'd look silly even without the people in the background.

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1 hour ago, skinsmarydu said:

FTR, the eye hit only 2 miles from where it was predicted...that's pretty awesome. How it moves once it hits land is almost always a crap shoot. 

You're talking about where it hit versus where it went after it hit, two different things. 

 

I'm talking about how big of an area do we consider in the range after it hits and what do we do for each of those areas.  If we keep flipping up and down state of emergency and mandatory evacuations, feel it will hurt peoples reactions to them.  I'd rather it not be called a state of emergency unless we're sure that the state is in that level of danger, that's what I'm saying, something more tentative or increasing the range of possibility so people aren't evacuating to what would out of nowhere be right where its going after it hits land (go further out if you're going to leave). 

 

For a Cat 1 or Cat 2, it might not see that serious and I'm talking overkill.  These storms are becoming more frequent and going to get stronger.

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For the record, I think it’s a miracle of science that they had this storm pegged to hit the eastern seaboard a week out.  They had the general area of landfall pegged 3 days out.  It’s absolutely incredible that we have the computing capability to nail that.

 

Its always difficult to figure where the storm will be once it hits land though, because that’s the real X factor.  Eventually, it will go in a NE direction, because that’s the prevailing winds.  It’s just a matter of when.

 

Once the storm makes landfall and is no longer a tropical storm, the risk of life and damage is decreased exponentially.  I’m not concerned with the storm once it breaks down.

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24 minutes ago, Renegade7 said:

 

For a Cat 1 or Cat 2, it might not see that serious and I'm talking overkill.  These storms are becoming more frequent and going to get stronger.

 

Can't wait for the first Cat 6 hurricane...

 

Category 6? Climate change may cause more hurricanes to rapidly intensify.

 

Quote

We've already seen the signs, in the past several years, of ultra-intense hurricanes that get that way by explosively intensifying. Last year's Hurricane Maria, for instance, spun up from a mere tropical depression into a Category 5 storm in just over two days; or 2015's Hurricane Patricia, whose winds in the Eastern Pacific exceeded 210 mph, more than 50 mph stronger than the weakest Category 5 storms.

 

But when the researchers then moved from simulating the hurricanes of the late 20th century to those of the future under a middle-of-the-road climate change scenario, they found big changes. For the period between 2016 and 2035, there were more hurricanes in general and 11 percent more hurricanes of the Category 3, 4 and 5 classes; by the end of the century, there were 20 percent more of the worst storms.

 

What's more, the research found that storms of super-extreme intensity, with maximum sustained winds above 190 mph, also became more common. While it only found nine of these storms in a simulation of the late 20th century climate, it found 32 for the period from 2016 to 2035 and 72 for the period from 2081 to 2100.

 

There is no “Category 6" on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale, but the Category 5 grouping, which is open-ended, begins at 157 mph, far lower than the intensities of such storms. And the lower categories require a much smaller increase in wind speeds before reaching the next category. For example, the weakest Category 5 storm would be 24 mph stronger than the weakest Category 4.

 

Recently, some scientists have begun speaking about a possible “Category 6" designation, though there is considerable debate over whether that’s really a good idea. Clearly, though, some recent storms would qualify, most notably Patricia but also 2013's Super Typhoon Haiyan and several others.

 

 

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2 hours ago, Renegade7 said:

Let me get this straight : we've gone from Virginia to being in a state of emergency, to Georgia in a state of emergency, to what looks the center of the storm passing right over West Virginia?  We may need to have a serious conversation about our model system and levels of emergency preparedness (like a step below state of the emergency or something).  I still support the mandatory evacuations, better safe then sorry, but we have to get better at our predictions so we aren't telling people to go where all the sudden the storm is going.  That's insane.

 

 

The euro had this pegged pretty well. But the models had different solutions for paths. We had probabilities but the others were possible too. 

 

And when the states of emergency were called the prevailing run produced a strong category 4 and could reasonably be thought to increase to a weak category 5  

 

when you factor in how much time it takes to mobilize and difference between staging before the storm and only doing something afterwards, it was appropriate. Generator manufacturers were refusing to stock stores outside the impact area in anticipation of shipping them to the impact area after the storm. 

 

Rememver katrina?

 

they did the right thing. 

 

The foolishness is with the weather channel using it to drive ratings. 

 

And there’s a problem with the lack of explanation from the government(s) in why they reacted the way they did. This will undoubtably produce people who refuse to take the next one seriously because of how this one turned out. That’s unfortunate. And those people are foolish. 

Edited by tshile

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