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Potential Trade Partners if Mariota Falls


emor09

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Quarterback is the most important position on the field. This draft has two players with great skill-sets: James Winston and Marcus Mariota.

 

The Bucs are probably going to take Winston No. 1 overall. Tennessee at No. 2 most-likely isn't giving up on Mettenberger and their offense doesn't fit a Mariota-type. After that Jacksonville took Blake Bortles high last season and Oakland liked Carr after his rookie year. 

 

So the Redskins are on the clock at No. 5 and Mariota is on the board. Is it time to get some picks back from the RG3 trade? 

 

I think the top three teams that want Mariota are the Jets, Rams and Eagles. 

 

JETS: If McCloughan could find a way to tell the Jets, "Hey, we have a deal in place with the Eagles. But we don't want him in NFC East. We'll swap positions with you and you throw in another draft pick or two and he's yours." That way the Redskins would still get their guy, pick up a draft pick. And keep Mariota in the AFC. I'm sure as a new coach Todd Bowles doesn't want to live and die with Geno Smith.

 

RAMS: How much longer can these guys trust Bradford? The Rams have traded up recently when they drafted Tavon Austin (I think) so this is something they would do. And wouldn't it be poetic justice to get picks from them after the trade in 2012? I would also like this trade because the Rams (and Jets) are typically bad teams and the future draft picks would be higher. 

 

EAGLES: Big decision. Do the Redskins give Chip Kelly and the Eagles their prized QB? It would likely be a huge price — multiple 1st round picks + more for the Birds to move up 15 spots. I would be willing to trade with these guys, because I think Kelly is nuts and will do unconventional things to get his guys. I would want multiple 1st round picks, a 2nd and an established, young NFL player: either DL Fletcher Cox, LB Mychal Kendricks or RT Lane Johnson. That's a heavy asking price, but Chip could do anything.

 

What are your thoughts? I want to trade down regardless if Leonard Williams is off the board, and I think Mariota being there would get us great value. Would you trade with the Eagles for the right price?

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Bradford is due to make $12.895M this year & count an insane $16.58M against the cap this year (last year of his rookie contract). It will be interesting to see if he takes a pay cut to stay with the Rams. I know Fisher & Company love Bradford but they'll be in a bad situation if he has a good year OR a bad year. Good year, they'll have to pay him more next year or tag him. Bad year without drafting an heir & they will be in a bad position entering 2016 season (especially if they finish in the middle of the draft pecking order for 2016). 

 

STL has won 18 games with Bradford as the starting QB, have paid him ~$60M to date, and are on the hook for another ~$13M this year. If this was a FA contract it would be up there with the worst of all-time. 

 

So, what happens with Bradford & his contract will be telling in how much interest STL will have in making a move for Mariota. 

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I really doubt Kelly trades the barn for Mariota. And the Jets don't have any real interest in trading with us if we don't have another trade option because they know we're not gonna pick Mariota.

 

Rams? Considering the way they played it after the RG3 trade (captains and so on...) it might cost them a lot, because we still have some few guys that remember that and would love to make them pay for it. And I doubt they'll pay the price.

 

So, of all those options I don't see any trades happening, and Mariota will land at pick 6 for the Jets waiting for him.

 

Now we could have another trade partner unheard of, like CHI, CLE or HOU. Perhaps even ATL.

 

What I would find it interesting is if TB doesn't pick Winston with the first pick and decide to go Leonard Williams. That draft board could become really nuts.

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Mettenberger was a sixth round pick so Titans don't have much invested in him and while he showed promise he did not show enough for them to turn down a QB high if they think he's can be their guy.

Personally I doubt Mariotta makes it as far as our pick one way or another. On the plus side that would mean two QBs get taken in the top 4 picks and a really good player will fall to us.

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I really doubt Kelly trades the barn for Mariota. And the Jets don't have any real interest in trading with us if we don't have another trade option because they know we're not gonna pick Mariota.

 

Rams? Considering the way they played it after the RG3 trade (captains and so on...) it might cost them a lot, because we still have some few guys that remember that and would love to make them pay for it. And I doubt they'll pay the price.

 

So, of all those options I don't see any trades happening, and Mariota will land at pick 6 for the Jets waiting for him.

 

Now we could have another trade partner unheard of, like CHI, CLE or HOU. Perhaps even ATL.

 

What I would find it interesting is if TB doesn't pick Winston with the first pick and decide to go Leonard Williams. That draft board could become really nuts.

I know it's a bad movie (though enjoyable) but this sure does remind me of "Draft Day".  OTOH, what if Williams falls?  Sure, he's a great prospect, but we have so many holes.

I'd make the Eagles pay a premium price to move up for Mariotta. I hope that's what happens because I do not think Mariotta will be a franchise QB so the trade would help us out and screw the Eagles.

If you think Mariotta will not pan out, why would you force the Eagles into not making the trade (assuming they won't pay a premium)?  We're going to have another high pick next year.  The question is, do you:  1) use #5 on 1 player this year or 2) trade down for multiple players this year knowing we can use our high pick next year for BPA at that position?

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With QB's every team that doesn't have one in the top ten is in play. This is the romance period. More than one coach is going to fall in love with these QBs and do everything they can to get him. With the Eagles rumored to have deal in place contingent on Mariota being at 6, I suspect anyone who values him will be calling on draft day. Teams 1-5 will be on the phone a lot.

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Even if Mariota falls to us, and even if a team offers us a trade down, I wouldn't take it save something ridiculous like Cleveland's two firsts.  The 2011 draft left such a bad taste.  We traded down, got a good deal, and after all the wheeling and dealing we got Kerrigan, Helu, and Dejon "Gone".  Only problem, if we had stuck where we were at and drafted the best player available JJ Watt would be a Redskin.  

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Even if Mariota falls to us, and even if a team offers us a trade down, I wouldn't take it save something ridiculous like Cleveland's two firsts.  The 2011 draft left such a bad taste.  We traded down, got a good deal, and after all the wheeling and dealing we got Kerrigan, Helu, and Dejon "Gone".  Only problem, if we had stuck where we were at and drafted the best player available JJ Watt would be a Redskin.

I don't recall Watt being the consensus BPA, but he certainly became that. It's also about who's doing the picking. Most importantly, you can't be gun shy. Just because a move didn't work in the past is no reason not to consider the possibilities in the future.

If Williams is gone and you're not sold on the pass rushers, and someone offers you a good deal, you have to consider it.

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Add me to the very very (hell could be the only one here thinking this) small group here that believes if Mariota was to fall to 5 that the absolute best thing for this team to do is to draft him ourselves.

 

Why?

 

Griffin isn't getting the job done.

Cousins isn't getting the job done.

McCoy is gone forever

 

Anyone doubting that? So here we are, with a hypothetical situation where we could trade for more picks or take a QB that other GM's think is a Franchise QB.

 

If we pass on Mariota, and he becomes a superstar in this league, does that help us? No what it does is it opens up second guessing about why we gave his rights up to another team while we search for our own Franchise QB the next year when Griffin and Cousins go off to another team and live out their backup QB lives.

 

If on the other hand we were to take Mariota and he becomes a superstar in this league, does that help us? Absolutely. There is no other position in the NFL that dictates how successful a team will be then QB. We have won 7 games the past two seasons because of our QB play. If we suddenly improved that to top 10 in the league production at the QB position it would mean that we would be competing each and every year.

 

If we were to take Mariota and he doesn't become a superstar in this league, does that hurt us? Yes it would but so would taking any other position player at #5 who didn't live up to the expectation would as well. What this would mean is that we are in the same position we are right at this very minute, we need a Franchise QB and were married to Mariota for 4 years hoping he gets his crap together eventually which is where we are now.

 

On the other hand if we pass on Mariota and Cousins and Griffin were to continue to play poorly then we are searching for a QB next year in who knows what spot to pick in the draft and who knows who will be there for us to take?

 

On the other hand if Griffin was to suddenly play great and learn how to play the short and middle of the field then we would be looking at needing to pay him a huge salary to keep him in 2016 and is that wise with his knees?

 

On the other hand if Cousins were to suddenly grab the brass ring and play great we would also be forced to pay him a huge salary to keep him too and is one season worth it when it still makes the team look like idiots for taking Griffin years ago for all those picks.

 

If we go by other teams salaries for QB's re-signing Griffin or Cousins would be about 15 million a season a huge price to pay. Now if they took Mariota and he looked great we have our QB on a team friendly deal. Last years #5 overall pick Khalil Mack signed a four-year, $18,677,002 contract. The deal is fully guaranteed, which would be like one season of Cousins or Griffin for the price with three free seasons. It makes more sense financially for us to get the cheaper guy

 

Plus that move opens up the door for trading Griffin/Cousins if they added Mariota before they hit free agency when the best we can hope for is a compensatory pick for one of them.

 

If I was the GM after seeing the results of the last three years from Cousins and Griffin I would be drafting Mariota, I wouldn't entertain the idea of trading his rights to a division foe, or some other team which could be franchise suicide. I would pick him for myself because if doesn't matter how great your Defense is, or how many offensive weapons you have, if you don't have a Franchise QB the absolute best you can hope for is a single playoff berth because you will not have sustained success like the Patriots without that piece.

 

We must find that piece and we could be (Mariota could be gone before 5) in a hell of a position to get that piece this year. Passing on him for some picks could haunt us if he were to have a good career and for a 50-50 I would rather gamble on it then to play it safe 

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Add me to the very very (hell could be the only one here thinking this) small group here that believes if Mariota was to fall to 5 that the absolute best thing for this team to do is to draft him....

Wouldn't shock me one bit if we did draft him. It would be worth it just to see the reaction, not to mention completely tweaking Kelly and the Eagles.

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Add me to the very very (hell could be the only one here thinking this) small group here that believes if Mariota was to fall to 5 that the absolute best thing for this team to do is to draft him ourselves.

You lost me right about here :-)

Seriously this is a team which has had no first round pick for two years because we spent them on moving up to take a QB we used a third first round pick on. We lack a secondary, pass rush and pass blocking. Both QBs rated at the top of the draft have big question marks. If this team was to take a QB this year with it's first round pick - which it will not - it would be one of the worst decisions in the history of this franchise. Which is a high, high bar.

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You lost me right about here :-)

Seriously this is a team which has had no first round pick for two years because we spent them on moving up to take a QB we used a third first round pick on. We lack a secondary, pass rush and pass blocking. Both QBs rated at the top of the draft have big question marks. If this team was to take a QB this year with it's first round pick - which it will not - it would be one of the worst decisions in the history of this franchise. Which is a high, high bar.

I agree that the team has so many holes it borders on crazy and drafting another QB early would not be to the best interest of the team.

 

HTTR!

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I agree that the team has so many holes it borders on crazy and drafting another QB early would not be to the best interest of the team.

 

HTTR!

Oh I could totally see us taking a QB later in the draft. We almost have to take one late or an UDFA just to have enough arms to get through OTAs and camp.

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With QB's every team that doesn't have one in the top ten is in play. This is the romance period. More than one coach is going to fall in love with these QBs and do everything they can to get him. With the Eagles rumored to have deal in place contingent on Mariota being at 6, I suspect anyone who values him will be calling on draft day. Teams 1-5 will be on the phone a lot.

 

I would say that Oakland, Jacksonville and us will have phones ringing a lot.

I don't expect Tampa to trade down, and I'm doubtful about Tennessee.

But those picking 3-5 are great candidates for trading down. And I bet there'll be at least one of them trading down.

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If the Jets already have a deal in place with the Eagles, they'd be smart to just take the trade you mentioned. Give us a 3rd rd pick and #6. Then trade that pick to the Eagles anyway. We'd only be losing out on an opportunity to fleece the Eagles ourselves.

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Even if Mariota falls to us, and even if a team offers us a trade down, I wouldn't take it save something ridiculous like Cleveland's two firsts.  The 2011 draft left such a bad taste.  We traded down, got a good deal, and after all the wheeling and dealing we got Kerrigan, Helu, and Dejon "Gone".  Only problem, if we had stuck where we were at and drafted the best player available JJ Watt would be a Redskin.  

You are assuming the brain dead defensive coordinator and his team would have coached JJ Watt up to be as great as he is today. We do an awful job as team when it comes to player development.

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You lost me right about here :-)

Seriously this is a team which has had no first round pick for two years because we spent them on moving up to take a QB we used a third first round pick on. We lack a secondary, pass rush and pass blocking. Both QBs rated at the top of the draft have big question marks. If this team was to take a QB this year with it's first round pick - which it will not - it would be one of the worst decisions in the history of this franchise. Which is a high, high bar.

 

I would not want to argue with a Staff member so this conversation puts me in a precarious position. Weather or not your standing on the forum should ever play a part in a conversation with you for me as a regular thinking out of the box nobody member here I have a hard time not walking on eggshells typing this. Honestly I'm going to respond to you thinking you don't have the ability to ban me if you wanted to and just be real with you. Please do not take this response to be anything more then two Redskins fans having a friendly conversation even if it sounds like I'm being a jerk, I am not.

 

I do respect your position. I understand at this time of the year so many people get hyped about this or that player. Can't miss is a fallacy, truth is more times then not league wide the chance that whoever you pick in the first round won't be on the team 6 years from now. I wrote about that last night here

 

http://es.redskins.com/topic/381550-2015-nfl-comprehensive-draft-database/?p=10155389

 

So first let me ask you something. Do you think that adding a single player to the "secondary, pass rush and pass blocking" units would result in a franchise changing into an elite team move? We have experienced years of first round picks adding to the secondary, pass rush, and offensive line. Here is a look at our most recent first round picks 

 

1999 - Champ Bailey (CB)

2000 - LaVar Arrington (LB)

2000 - Chris Samuels (T)

2001 - Rod Gardner (WR)     

2002 - Patrick Ramsey (QB)

2003 - No first-round draft pick

2004 - Sean Taylor (S)

2005 - Carlos Rogers (CB)    

2005 - Jason Campbell (QB)

2006 - No first-round draft pick

2007 - LaRon Landry (S)     

2008 - No first-round draft pick - TRADED OUT OF FIRST ROUND FOR MULTIPLE PICKS

2009 - Brian Orakpo (DE)     

2010 - Trent Williams (T)     

2011 - Ryan Kerrigan (DE)     

2012 - Robert Griffin III (QB)

2013 - No first-round draft pick

2014 - No first-round draft pick

 

By my count that's 4 players we took to help the secondary

 

1999 - Champ Bailey (CB)

2004 - Sean Taylor (S)

2005 - Carlos Rogers (CB)    

2007 - LaRon Landry (S)     

 

And that's 3 players we took to help the pass rush

 

2000 - LaVar Arrington (LB)

2009 - Brian Orakpo (DE)     

2011 - Ryan Kerrigan (DE)     

 

And it's 2 players we took to help the offensive line

 

2000 - Chris Samuels (T)

2010 - Trent Williams (T)     

 

And what has the results been with each of those selections? Did it change the future of the franchise the way we hope? No. Now we also took three QB's in the first round and after each of them there is something to notice....

 

2002 - Patrick Ramsey (QB)

2003 - No first-round draft pick

2005 - Jason Campbell (QB)

2006 - No first-round draft pick

2012 - Robert Griffin III (QB)

2013 - No first-round draft pick

2014 - No first-round draft pick

 

 

Every time we took a QB in the first round of the draft we ended up needing to give up future picks to get him. We don't know what the future holds for Griffin or Cousins but the past doesn't look good. So unless we are the absolute worst team in the league next year we may find ourselves in a very similar situation next season where we need a QB but in order to get one it will required trading up to get him and that means more loss of first round picks.

 

The truth is outside of an injured Drew Brees teams these days do not let Franchise QB's go away in free agency. We will be no different next year. It's a very strong statement to say to me taking a QB at the 5 spot where we wouldn't need to give up future picks is "the worst decision in franchise history" when history shows to get a QB this team always mortgages its future to do that. If your tired of trading away future number one picks then you need to draft a QB when you have the chance to and hypothetically we might be in that position this year.

 

Now the second thing about this to me is people not really understanding the cap and how taking Mariotta would help us immensely next year if/when we decide to re-sign either Cousins or Griffin. If we choose to sign one of the two it means that they played great this year finally. The average Franchise QB makes between 10 and 15 million per season. Are you prepared to invest that kind of money into Griffin or Cousins today? With the new salary cap on the draft we could expect that our 5th pick will make 18 million dollars over 4 years, or less then 5 million a year. It would be way more helpful to have a cheap QB then an expensive one. By comparison Josh McCown just signed a 15 million dollar contract for the Browns and he is awful. It's more advantageous to draft a QB financially today then to sign one to a second contract. By doing that it would open up more cap space for fixing those other areas you and I both agree need addressed.

 

That's not even me speaking about the ramifications of giving a team in our division a potential franchise QB and what that could do to our future and how bad of an idea that would be, or how we could always trade someone to get more picks these assets we have. Steve Walsh was a first round pick who was traded the next season for a first round pick plus more picks. Or how few QB's in this league actually start off as badly as Griffin has been playing and ever turn the career around (Unless you want to mention more then a decade ago of some outliers). The wild card is Cousins and drafting a backup QB this year while we wait and see if Cousins can become that guy isn't a bad move to make. It's hardly the worst idea ever for this franchise and it's more logical to me to do that then to do something else. 

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Add me to the very very (hell could be the only one here thinking this) small group here that believes if Mariota was to fall to 5 that the absolute best thing for this team to do is to draft him ourselves.

 

 

 

You can add me to the list, hankersonfan.  I, too, think the Redskins could and should draft Mariota if he falls to them.  They are keeping it hush-hush, which is something this organization has not been very good at over the years.  His chances of success are as likely or unlikely as anyone left on the board to be drafted.  I don't think Gruden is an RG3 fan, so saying he is the starting QB for the upcoming season may only be a smoke screen.

 

I hope they draft Mariota and I only want to see a trade down for a king's ransom, because he may very well be a franchise QB.

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