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Advanced stats and our QBs, 2014 edition


Tsailand

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(I've been thinking about this post for a while, wasn't sure if it should be its own thread or go into one of the other QB threads.  But when I saw that the "Jay Cutler 2015" thread survived, I figured this would be fine too.)



We'll start with the basic stat: passer rating.  It has the advantage of being easy to calculate and understand.  The disadvantage is that it doesn't factor in sacks, rushing, down and distance, and arguably rewards TDs too much and doesn't penalize INTs enough.

According to ESPN, 34 QBs this year have enough pass attempts to "qualify".  Cousins' passer rating is 86.4, 20th best.  McCoy and RG3 don't qualify, but their ratings are 96.4 and 89.8, respectively, which would put them at 9th (!) and 17th, respectively.

So much for passer rating.  We already knew that it doesn't show the whole picture



An even simpler stat is yards per attempt.  Cousins led the league in that category when he was benched, then Aaron Rogers pulled ahead, but now they're tied again at 8.38 YPA.  McCoy is at 8.26, which would put him 4th out of 34.  RG3 is at 7.59, which would tie him for 10th with Drew Brees.

Gee, our passing game pretty good if you ignore minor things like turnovers and sacks...



There's an advanced version of YPA called ANY/A - adjusted net yards per passing attempt.  Basically it takes sacks and lost sack yardage into account, penalizes you 45 yards per INT, and rewards you 20 yards per passing TD.  These two numbers aren't arbitrary like the basic passer rating calculation, but based on advanced research.  

Cousins' ANY/A this year is 6.77, 13th out of 34.
McCoy's is 6.10, which would put him at 20th if he had enough attempts.
RG3's is 4.93, which would put him at 31st, just after Teddy Bridgewater.  The qualifying QBs with worse ANY/A than RG3 are Derek Carr, Josh McCown, Geno Smith, and Blake Bortles.

My source for ANY/A numbers: http://www.sportingcharts.com




ESPN has a proprietary stat called Total Quarterback Rating (QBR for short).  You can read more about it online, but basically it attempts to boil QB performance down to a single number between zero and 100, with 50 as average.  It takes nearly every possible factor into account, including QB rushes, but not strength of opponent.  The details of the calculation are secret, but it is said to be extremely complicated.  

Only 30 NFL QBs have played enough this season to be considered "qualified" for QBR purposes.  None of our three QBs are on that list.  However, here's how they would rank if they were "qualified":
Cousins: 46.8, 23rd.
McCoy: 46.1, also 23rd.
RG3: 28.2, tied for 29th with Geno Smith.  Only Blake Bortles is worse among QBs who have been allowed to play enough to "qualify".



Football Outsiders has a state called DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average).  The calculations are also secret, but they take everything into account, including the strengths of opposing defenses.  They rank every QB with at least 100 passes this year:
Cousins: 14th out of 43.  
McCoy: 30th out of 43.
RG3: 41st out of 43.  Of QBs who have thrown at least 100 passes, only McCown and Bortles are worse.




Feel free to post additional stats, especially advanced stats, comparing our QBs to the rest of the NFL.  Please no "the only stat that matters is W-L record"-type comments; this thread is for intelligent discussion of QB play.

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I decided to put my interpretations of these stats in a separate post.

 

Passer rating:  Passer rating is badly flawed.  ANY/A is straight-up better in my opinion.

YPA: All three of our QBs are in the top 10.  Shows what a stellar receiving corps we have.  Nearly any NFL QB would put up great numbers with these guys, if he had time to throw.

ANY/A: RG3's sacks and lack of a good deep ball are hurting him badly in this category.  We know the O-line is garbage, but our other two guys don't take nearly as many sacks as RG3 does.  This should be a big red flag to people who are still on the RG3 bandwagon.

QBR and DVOA: don't know the details of how these are calculated, so we can't say for sure which is painting a better picture.  But both have RG3 as one of the worst QBs in the league, and McCoy as medicore (backup quality).  DVOA says Cousins is above average, QBR says he is mediocre.

 

For the anti-Cousins posters who will say, "but look at how many INTs he throws!": All of these stats except YPA penalize for INTs.

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RG3 is failing based on the scheme and play calling, not because he can't play......Brady and Manning would struggle in an offense that forced them to move.   

 

I would also rather have a QB who takes sacks; then a QB who's a turnover machine like Cousins

You have to let Cousins work out those turnovers. That's how good QB's get through that s**t.

 

We all love Luck (and I do too)...he has 14 ints and 12 fumbles this year. That is 2 turnovers a game. Guess what he is also doing? Producing on offense. Guess who was producing on offense way better than Griffin and Mccoy? That would be Cousins

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 Feel free to post additional stats, especially advanced stats, comparing our QBs to the rest of the NFL.  Please no "the only stat that matters is W-L record"-type comments; this thread is for intelligent discussion of QB play.

 

 So, are you saying that the only thing that matters is a QB's stats? Stats do not tell the whole story, as many have found out.

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You have to let Cousins work out those turnovers. That's how good QB's get through that s**t.

 

We all love Luck (and I do too)...he has 14 ints and 12 fumbles this year. That is 2 turnovers a game. Guess what he is also doing? Producing on offense. Guess who was producing on offense way better than Griffin and Mccoy? That would be Cousins

 

Cousins looks like he wants to cry after he throws an INT....that's a bigger problem then the INT itself

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i dont think mccoy is relevant in this conversation because i dont believe he is the future of the team.  he is at his ceiling and what you see is what you get.  cousins seemed to move the ball well but had too many turnovers.  rg3 doesnt move the ball well but doesnt have the turnovers.  cousins is good at what rg3 isnt and vice versa.  so when either one makes a mistake, everybody will say, the other guy wouldnt have done that, put him in.  somebody needs to be the clear cut starter and the other needs to go.  having this back and forth who is going to start is not helping the team come together.  all the stats say cousins is the better qb, but we still lose with him.

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Just some interesting other ones to look at in terms of Sacks...

 

Sack Percentages

 

Griffin - 15.7%

Colt - 11.7%

Kirk - 3.8%

 

So a big difference between Kirk and the other two in terms of getting sacked. A whole lot of different arguments could be made regarding the reasons for that (health of the line, grasp of the system, flat out talent, natural tendancy to extend plays, teams played, etc).

 

What I find interesting is Colt and Griffin are both high, and seperated by less than 5%. Goes back to my statements a few weeks back that Colt, like Griffin, is a "play extender" style of QB and that those type of QBs naturally are more likely to take a larger total of sacks when behind an average to bad offensive line. Griffin's seeming worse pocket presence, questionable grasp of this offense, and tendancy to take his eyes away from down field when he tries to scramble and make space would account for the potential differenec between the two.

 

Another interesting one is average yards lost per sack.

 

Griffin - 6.6 yards

 

Colt - 6.8 yards

 

Cousins 8.8 yards

 

Cousins seemingly takes "bigger" sacks, but with how much more rare they are the number isn't a really impactful one.

 

Also I wanted to look at int %. I felt like Cousins threw a lot more passes than any of the other QB's (ended up he did...round 50 more) so maybe those int totals of his really weren't as bad as they seemed. Not so much.

 

Griffin - 2.0%

 

McCoy - 2.3%

 

Cousins - 4.7%

 

No real attempt to claim any definitive statement as to what those things absolutely mean or what that says about our QBs in comparison to each other or the rest of the NFL. Just some percentages I found interesting to look at.

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Just some interesting other ones to look at in terms of Sacks...

 

Sack Percentages

 

Griffin - 15.7%

Colt - 11.7%

Kirk - 3.8%

 

So a big difference between Kirk and the other two in terms of getting sacked. A whole lot of different arguments could be made regarding the reasons for that (health of the line, grasp of the system, flat out talent, natural tendancy to extend plays, teams played, etc).

 

What I find interesting is Colt and Griffin are both high, and seperated by less than 5%. Goes back to my statements a few weeks back that Colt, like Griffin, is a "play extender" style of QB and that those type of QBs naturally are more likely to take a larger total of sacks when behind an average to bad offensive line. Griffin's seeming worse pocket presence, questionable grasp of this offense, and tendancy to take his eyes away from down field when he tries to scramble and make space would account for the potential differenec between the two.

 

Another interesting one is average yards lost per sack.

 

Griffin - 6.6 yards

 

Colt - 6.8 yards

 

Cousins 8.8 yards

 

Cousins seemingly takes "bigger" sacks, but with how much more rare they are the number isn't a really impactful one.

 

Also I wanted to look at int %. I felt like Cousins threw a lot more passes than any of the other QB's (ended up he did...round 50 more) so maybe those int totals of his really weren't as bad as they seemed. Not so much.

 

Griffin - 2.0%

 

McCoy - 2.3%

 

Cousins - 4.7%

 

No real attempt to claim any definitive statement as to what those things absolutely mean or what that says about our QBs in comparison to each other or the rest of the NFL. Just some percentages I found interesting to look at.

 

Cousins often threw the ball too quickly....that's one big reason why his sack percentage is lower.

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How about completion per dropback? 

 

Attempts + Sacks + Runs (tough to judge exactly but probably 80% of runs are scrambles) / Completions.

 

Griffin

150+28+22 / 104 = 52%

 

McCoy

128+17+3 / 91 = 61%

 

Cousins

204+8+5 / 126 = 58%

 

Now INT per dropback? 

 

Attempts + Sacks + Runs (tough to judge exactly but probably 80% of runs are scrambles) / Ints.

 

Griffin

150+28+22 / 3 = 1.5%

 

McCoy

128+17+3 / 3 = 2%

 

Cousins

204+8+5 / 9 = 4.1%

 

 

Now TD per dropback? 

 

Attempts + Sacks + Runs (tough to judge exactly but probably 80% of runs are scrambles) / TD.

 

Griffin

150+28+22 / 3 = 1.5%

 

McCoy

128+17+3 / 4 = 2.7%

 

Cousins

204+8+5 / 10 = 4.6%

 

Now Sack per dropback? 

 

Attempts + Sacks + Runs (tough to judge exactly but probably 80% of runs are scrambles) / Sack.

 

Griffin

150+28+22 / 28 = 14%

 

McCoy

128+17+3 / 17 = 11.4%

 

Cousins

204+8+5 / 8 = 3.7%

 

Redskins average 40.42 dropbacks a game this year (under my calcs)

 

Per game

 

Griffin

21 completions  0.6 Tds 0.6 ints 5.6 sacks

 

McCoy

24.65 comp  1.09 Tds 0.81 Ints 4.6 sacks

 

Cousins

23.4 comp  1.86 Tds 1.65 Int  1.5 sacks

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I cry when he throws an interception as well. I'd roll with him though. He's the best QB on the team.

Everyone wants the O-line to better...and i don't disagree, but they are thinking in the prism of RG3 starting. Imagine how much better Cousins would be with a better o-line. I would imagine that he would throw less INTS. He was offensively moving the ball with that s**t sandwich of an o-line. Imagine with an average to good O-line.

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Don't listen to the haters, great thread. Keep it up.

 

I'll throw in a request for YAC numbers for each QB - looking to see if it shows any of them "hits guys in stride". Granted this can be skewed by out patterns, TDs completed in the end zone, CT dump offs for big yardage, etc... Still should be another data point that hopefully matches up with what the eye test has shown us this season.

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ESPN's QBR is a very good measuring stick for just how good a QBs performance is.  The QB Rating uses the states, while the QBR uses the performance.

 

Cool thread idea.


Also I wanted to look at int %. I felt like Cousins threw a lot more passes than any of the other QB's (ended up he did...round 50 more) so maybe those int totals of his really weren't as bad as they seemed. Not so much.

 

Griffin - 2.0%

 

McCoy - 2.3%

 

Cousins - 4.7%

 

No real attempt to claim any definitive statement as to what those things absolutely mean or what that says about our QBs in comparison to each other or the rest of the NFL. Just some percentages I found interesting to look at.

 

Yeah bro, Cousins was on pace for a weird season.  Something like 5,000 plus yards passing, 29 TDs, and 28 picks.  He's got the dragon for sure.

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Cousins looks like he wants to cry after he throws an INT....that's a bigger problem then the INT itself

LOL, dude needs to learn how to shake it off and move on to the next possession. It's surprising that a guy that played big time college ball, seems to be mentally weak. No giving up on Kirk and I hope the Redskins see the good in him, but he needs to man up.

Griffin's int rate is low because he never throws the ball downfield.

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Cousins often threw the ball too quickly....that's one big reason why his sack percentage is lower.

 

Cousins threw the ball before the WR's got out of their break which is why he didn't take many sacks.  His bad interceptions were either miscommunication or forced passes.

 

Cousins will never take as many sacks as RG3 or Colt because he understands how to get through his reads and anticipate when the WR is about to be open, we don't have another Qb on the team that can do that.

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I'm curious about Griffin's sack stats vs the increased production from the run game when he's in.

 

The advanced stats take the QB's own run results into account, but not runs by his teammates.

 

I have not noticed that the run game is any better with him in there this year.  In 2012, yeah.

 

I would also rather have a QB who takes sacks; then a QB who's a turnover machine like Cousins

 

Yes, an interception is worse than sack.  The advanced stats say that Cousins' ability to move the ball makes up for his turnovers, and that RG3 isn't much more than a sack machine.

 

You have to let Cousins work out those turnovers. That's how good QB's get through that s**t.

 

We all love Luck (and I do too)...he has 14 ints and 12 fumbles this year. That is 2 turnovers a game. Guess what he is also doing? Producing on offense. Guess who was producing on offense way better than Griffin and Mccoy? That would be Cousins

 

OK, let's not go too crazy here.  Cousins was on pace for 27 ints and 6 fumbles, which is a lot worse. 

 

Luck is 5th in ANY/A, 11th in QBR, 11th (out of 43) in DVOA. 

 

Another interesting one is average yards lost per sack.

 

Griffin - 6.6 yards

 

Colt - 6.8 yards

 

Cousins 8.8 yards

 

Cousins seemingly takes "bigger" sacks, but with how much more rare they are the number isn't a really impactful one.

 

He was sacked only 8 times in 5+ games, so yeah.

 

To me the only stat that matters is time to throw.  I would love to see a breakdown of time in pocket or throw vs a Qbs rating....

 

Part of good QB play is buying time for yourself with pocket awareness.

 

Yes, the O-line is dreadful.  But if some of our QBs have more time to throw than others, we have to look at why.

 

Griffin

21 completions  0.6 Tds 0.6 ints 5.6 sacks

 

McCoy

24.65 comp  1.09 Tds 0.81 Ints 4.6 sacks

 

Cousins

23.4 comp  1.86 Tds 1.65 Int  1.5 sacks

 

When you look at that first statline... you can't win NFL games like that.

 

I hadn't realized that McCoy had turned into a sack machine also.  I think McCoy is one of those QBs who would have decent sack totals behind a decent line, but just doesn't know how to deal with the turnstile that Snyder/Allen has installed to protect our QBs.

 

Actually, "turnstile" is a compliment to these bums, it takes more time to swipe through a Metro turnstile with EZ pass than it does to go through/around these millionaires. 

 

Don't listen to the haters, great thread. Keep it up.

 

I'll throw in a request for YAC numbers for each QB - looking to see if it shows any of them "hits guys in stride". Granted this can be skewed by out patterns, TDs completed in the end zone, CT dump offs for big yardage, etc... Still should be another data point that hopefully matches up with what the eye test has shown us this season.

 

Not sure where to find that...

 

Cousins threw the ball before the WR's got out of their break which is why he didn't take many sacks.  His bad interceptions were either miscommunication or forced passes.

 

Cousins will never take as many sacks as RG3 or Colt because he understands how to get through his reads and anticipate when the WR is about to be open, we don't have another Qb on the team that can do that.

 

Yup.

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The advanced stats take the QB's own run results into account, but not runs by his teammates.

I have not noticed that the run game is any better with him in there this year. In 2012, yeah.

With Griffin

HOU 6.5 YPC

MIN 4.8 YPC

TB 4.8

SF 6.0

NYG 3.5

Without Griffin

JAC 3.9

PHI 3.3

NYG 5.3

SEA 2.2

ARI 3.2

TEN 3.0

DAL 4.1

IND 3.9

STL 0.8

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If you look at Analytics, Cousins clearly had the best performance.  Sure, he had  interception issues, but that could be due to various reasons (bad offensive line, lack of experience, etc).

And in all honesty, it's not just the stats, the eye test clearly tells me that we were moving the ball with Cousins as the QB.  

People called RG3's 13 point performance last week a "good" performance.  Sorry, but the point is to score games.  I would argue that Cousins against Arizona, with his 3 ints, had a better game than almost every game by RG3, except perhaps Minnesota.

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