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Picks, Pats, and Pardons Week 5


kleese

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Season: 34-27
Last Week: 8-5
Redskins: 3-1
ATS: 7-9 (Last Week: 3-1)
Lock: 1-3

A very solid week with the exception of missing badly on the Saints-Cowboys game. Possibly pointing back in the right direction ATS with a 3-1 record. Correctly cautioned against going blindly with the Bears, Steelers, and Falcons last week. All three teams lost outright and failed to cover the spread. 

Minnesota at Green Bay: Norv Turner has always been a great gameplanner/play caller. And he had a great plan for the Falcons leaky D last week that allowed Teddy Bridgewater to settle in and have a very solid debut as a starter. With the rookie hobbling and the short week in play, I wouldn't expect their offense to be nearly as effective in Green Bay. There is a reason these Thursday games haven't been competitive yet and I don't see that changing this week. 

Packers 30, Vikings 16 

Chicago at Carolina: Last week was a microcosm of the Cutler era in Chicago. I've been a fan/defender of his for years, but at some point I suppose you have to be open to the possibility that he just isn't consistent enough to ever be considered in the category with the other elite QBs. He will usually be very solid, but he never fully shakes his turnover tendencies. There seems to be a limitation here with his play and his team. Having said that, I'm not loving what I see on the other side here. 

Bears 20, Panthers 17 

St. Louis at Philadelphia: I really want to put the Rams on my list of covers this week as I believe their front seven will give Philly plenty of problems this week, but I just don't trust Austin Davis or that offense enough to put money on them on the road. 

Eagles 27, Rams 17

Atlanta at New York Giants: Right now, I still think the Giants are closer to the team that started 0-2 then the team that has looked excellent the past two weeks. Clearly, they've adjusted and Eli is much more comfortable running their new offense but they also took advantage of a middling Houston team and a lousy Redskins team/defense. The Falcons defense is just as bad, but their WRs are going to give the Giants fits. Stay away game for me, but calling for a mild upset. 

Falcons 28, Giants 27 

Tampa Bay at New Orleans: Mike Glennon further cemented the Josh McCown signing as one of the worst FA signings in NFL history by proving in one start that the is the far superior QB. The Bucs will be more competitive the rest of the way because him, but this is a tough spot this week against a very desperate Saints team. 

Saints 31, Bucs 21 

Houston at Dallas: If you are an anti-Dallas fan, you should be nervous. While I think their defense is overachieving, the offense is absolutely legit. The offensive line looks dominant and they are fully healthy at the skill spots. Romo has time and he is stretching the field in large part because their running game is leaving defenses in a bind. Clearly, I misjudged this team prior to the year. 

Cowboys 26, Texans 20 

Buffalo at Detroit: If the Bills truly believe EJ Manuel is a bust then I commend them for pulling the plug now and not suffering through an entire year of subpar QB play. Not sure what Orton has to offer but I do believe he will get the ball into the hands of the formidable playmakers on the Bills roster. Not a great spot for him to start though against a solid Lions defensive front. 

Lions 29, Bills 23 

Baltimore at Indianapolis: After looking very blah through two weeks the Colts have absolutely ripped the doors off the lousy Titans and Jags. Not exactly sure what to make of them right now, but I have a small lean to a mild upset here.

Ravens 23, Colts 20 

Pittsburgh at Jacksonville: Nothing better than getting to follow up a horrible home loss with a trip to Jacksonville. 

Steelers 27, Jaguars 20 

Arizona at Denver: Both teams will be rested and energized after their bye weeks. While I really like what Bruce Arians is doing in the desert, I am not sold that they can keep pace with the top tier teams in the league (need to see more of Drew Stanton). Peyton and crew will be itching to erase the taste from their OT loss in Seattle. Expect an easier game than most are predicting. 

Broncos 34, Cardinals 23 

Kansas City at San Francisco: The 49ers are simply surviving right now. Nothing they are doing is smooth or impressive of fluid. Their defense did have an excellent outing last week against Philly, but the offense continues to look choppy and unsettled. I am going to give them another ugly win this week, but I am very tempted to take the road team. 

49ers 24, Chiefs 22 

New York Jets at San Diego: I have this pegged as one of those games where Rex Ryan really shows what a great coordinator he still is-- and what a great coordinator he will likely be once he is fired either during or after this season. 

Chargers 19, Jets 16 

Cincinnati at New England: Trying very hard not to over-think this one. At a pick em' this game makes almost no sense. The Bengals are 3-0, coming off a bye, and have an efficient offense and a top notch defense. The only reason this game is lined where it is, is due to history. I understand that and it's never a great feeling to bet against the Pats or Brady when backed into a corner, but they just aren't very good. The defense will probably be fine, but there just isn't talent on the other side of the ball. I'm simply going with the better team here. 

Bengals 24, Patriots 21 

Seattle at Washington: After getting humiliated at home last Thursday, the Seahawks aren't exactly what the doctor ordered for the Redskins. Expect Washington to keep it competitive for a half, but Seattle will steadily pound them and pull away. 

Seahawks 30, Redskins 20 

Against the Spread (lock listed first)

1. Broncos (-7.5) vs. Cardinals
2. Bengals (EVEN) vs. Patriots
3. Jets (+6.5) vs. Chargers
4. Eagles (UNDER 47.5) vs. Rams

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www.edkleese.blogspot.com

 

I continue to have an awful time with ES on my desktop and can't copy/paste. If anyone wants to do so, please feel free. Thanks!

 

Yeah me too, but I found a work-around,

If you type something first, then highlight that text, you can then paste over the top of it. 

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I don't see any way the Skins put up 20 on Seattle. Worse, I see this as the game that shatters Cousins in the same way the 86 NFCC game wiped out Schroeder's psyche.

The drama on ES is getting a little thick. Seahawks defense is good, but not of the soul crushing variety like the 86 Giants. My original prediction was 26-17 and then I altered it a bit.

I don't expect Cousins to have a good game or to be horrendous. I have a feeling we will be giving him an "eh" grade on this one as I believe Gruden will come out with a more conservative plan in order to help guard against that. If our defense at least makes Seattle work and take their time, I think out offense can plod along enough to keep it close. If the offense has to try and keep pace with a fast moving Seahawks offense then that's when I could see it getting ugly.

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I don't see any way the Skins put up 20 on Seattle. Worse, I see this as the game that shatters Cousins in the same way the 86 NFCC game wiped out Schroeder's psyche.

If the 4 interceptions last week didn't already ruin Cousin's psyche then nothing will. His Psyche is probably already done for.

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Wow, everybody picking the Redskins all of a sudden?

 

The only reason I can think of is how Tampa came back after getting blown out on Thursday but the Redskins never do that. When's the last time we got spanked bad then came back to beat a much better team?

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Wow, everybody picking the Redskins all of a sudden?

The only reason I can think of is how Tampa came back after getting blown out on Thursday but the Redskins never do that. When's the last time we got spanked bad then came back to beat a much better team?

To clarify, Cowherd and Bell are saying the smart money is on the Redskins to COVER, not to win.

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This will be difficult to watch on many levels, not the least of which is the fact that Jeff Triplette and his crew are working the game. I will have plenty of beer handy. Thankfully I'm in Belgium. The offense has generally been on point. Turnovers have been the killer. The defense has never impressed me at all under Haslett. I want to see how he has schemed for the Seahawks offense. One thing in our favor -- Triplette really likes Haslett, so he will emphasize the 5-yard rule to his crew. The Seattle secondary won't get away with murder as they usually do.

 

HTTR!!!

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Look for their defense to outscore our offense.

Jordan Reed will be activated for this game, but will reinjure his hamstring during warmups.

The Redskins will not get into Seattle territory until the end of the 2nd half, but when we finally do, Forbath's long FG attempt will be blocked and returned for a TD with under a minute to go.

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