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Football Outsiders DVOA: Redskins #2 in the league


GibbsFactor

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A lot of people wish there was more advanced analytics in football.   Most people agree that DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) from Football Outsiders is the best formula out there that directly correlates to wins.     

 

Of course, the Redskins defense are number one in yards per game, number four in points per game but does it tell the whole story?    Points per game is a lazy way to judge defenses since you can score on defense and special teams, not to mention the fact that a turnover deep on your side of the field and offense could gain negative yards and still get three points.  How is that on the defense?

 

Well, without further ado, here is Football Outsiders week 2 team efficiency ratings.   This laughs in the face of power rankings done by so called experts on websites such as ESPN or Fox Sports designed to get hits.  It speaks to the ignorance of sites like those.

 

The Skins are #2 overall, #1 on defense and #9 on offense.    These are truly great days we are living in bros!   The Redskins are a damn good football team.   

 

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teameff

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I wouldn't say they are a 'damn good football team' until they play stout and execute the offense against a more well rounded team.

 

So far though, I'm very happy with the defense. Gruden did a great job calling Siunday's game.

 

Haslett better be careful in his aggression vs Philly or Sproles and McCoy will destroy in the screen/short passing game. Hopefully, the guys are ready to be disciplined and tackle Sunday. 

 

HTTR

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This week is the test I've been waiting for.  I think most would agree that our D looks improved.  If we hold Philthy under 20 points and win the game, it would be a huge step forward for this year's team.

 

I think it would give us a lot of confidence moving forward, some good mojo for Gruden and especially Haslett.  

 

Yes, I know it was Jax.  But it was awesome to watch us totally dominate a game.  We haven't had many of those around here lately.

 

If we can get Foles to cough up one or two, I like our chances in a close game.  We gotta move the chains to keep our D fresh.  As optimistic as I like to be, I'll believe it when I see it.

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You had me at

The Redskins are a damn good football team.

I love red meat!

 

But this seems more like the way to go

 

This week is the test I've been waiting for.  I think most would agree that our D looks improved.  If we hold Philthy under 20 points and win the game, it would be a huge step forward for this year's team.

 

I think it would give us a lot of confidence moving forward, some good mojo for Gruden and especially Haslett.  

 

Yes, I know it was Jax.  But it was awesome to watch us totally dominate a game.  We haven't had many of those around here lately.

 

If we can get Foles to cough up one or two, I like our chances in a close game.  We gotta move the chains to keep our D fresh.

I agree with Alvin, but would hasten to add that this week presents us with not just a test - but an opportunity.  

 

My view is that not only will we learn a lot from the result, but also in how the team handles this moment.  

 

Here's to gearing up for a season of Big Games!

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To everyone making a big deal over the E-gals offense: let's wait and see how they do against a REALLY good defense (US!) who hasn't shown a tendency to let up off the gas pedal for all four quarters! Jax and Indy could have easily beaten them if they had played ALL 60 minutes!  I had to laugh at Chipper's stupid play calling and his idiotic flash cards! This guy will be coaching in college in another two years.  So far, in two games, the E-gals have gotten their butts handed to them in the first half. That's going to come back and bite them hard this week against a good defense AND a good offense!

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The Texans are undefeated lol...have a better record than the Redskins do.

That's true. Texans look pretty good. But Philly will be the first team not getting overhauled with a new coaching staff that we'll see. 

 

We obviously had our own changes, but we kept a lot of the same components, players, and coaches. Houston's offense wasn't much of a threat with Fitz and Jax couldn't block for run or pass. 

 

If we're still top 3 after the Philly game, I'll drive that bandwagon. 

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I predict that the eagles are going to get some big plays Sunday and people are going to be calling for haslett's job again.

The defense has played well against 2 average or below offenses. Which is exactly what they should do.

Now they've got to prove it against a really good offense with some very dangerous weapons.

 

Agree 100%. Let's see them do it against good offense before we start crowning this defense. They have definitely played well so far, no doubt about that. But the Texans and Jags aren't exactly good offenses.

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A lot of people wish there was more advanced analytics in football.   Most people agree that DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) from Football Outsiders is the best formula out there that directly correlates to wins.     

 

Of course, the Redskins defense are number one in yards per game, number four in points per game but does it tell the whole story?    Points per game is a lazy way to judge defenses since you can score on defense and special teams, not to mention the fact that a turnover deep on your side of the field and offense could gain negative yards and still get three points.  How is that on the defense?

 

Well, without further ado, here is Football Outsiders week 2 team efficiency ratings.   This laughs in the face of power rankings done by so called experts on websites such as ESPN or Fox Sports designed to get hits.  It speaks to the ignorance of sites like those.

 

The Skins are #2 overall, #1 on defense and #9 on offense.    These are truly great days we are living in bros!   The Redskins are a damn good football team.   

 

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teameff

Much as I love the homerism, I dont think a single person on this board was calling us a "damn good football team" after week 1. Remember... all that matters is winning the Superbowl!

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It's a terrific start to the season but the sample size is too tiny to draw conclusions from. I'd love for us to keep playing well like we have, but I think our opponents were soft and we might have caught some lightning in a bottle with the defensive performance. We're talented, but not this talented. I would be thrilled with a top ten finish from the D and nine wins overall.

Hell I think we could possibly win our division with nine wins.

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The teams we have played are ranked 18(Texans) and 32(Jags). Lets see how we do against Philly(10) and Seattle(5) before we get too carried away. Last week we were ranked 22. Killing a team as bad as we killed the Jags with such a small sample size skews the numbers.

 

That being said I am happy with the team. I think we have a group of players that will be able to compete week in and week out.  

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I think with our D and O we can hang with Philly.. My concern is the dumb mistakes we continue to make year after year.. The false starts, blocks in the back on returns, personal fouls, wasted TO's, etc.. I think if we can do an above average job of "not beating ourself" we'll have a decent shot when the horn sounds..

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I predict that the eagles are going to get some big plays Sunday and people are going to be calling for haslett's job again.

The defense has played well against 2 average or below offenses. Which is exactly what they should do.

Now they've got to prove it against a really good offense with some very dangerous weapons.

Logic tells us that a good team should beat down a poor team, and at least compete with another good team. We'll see what happens this Sunday. We're at least on the right track!

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To everyone making a big deal over the E-gals offense: let's wait and see how they do against a REALLY good defense (US!) who hasn't shown a tendency to let up off the gas pedal for all four quarters! Jax and Indy could have easily beaten them if they had played ALL 60 minutes!  I had to laugh at Chipper's stupid play calling and his idiotic flash cards! This guy will be coaching in college in another two years.  So far, in two games, the E-gals have gotten their butts handed to them in the first half. That's going to come back and bite them hard this week against a good defense AND a good offense!

 

So losing to the team that had 1st pick in the draft then beating a team not much better makes you good ? If you want to go by stats Philly has 1st in yard and in points.  I think you forget Foles was the backup last year and this is the first year to begin as the starter . Do you really want to talk smack about  a coach that already won the division  vs the only one that would take the job >? Its a division game so you never know , because lighting does strike. I think it will be a good one like they usually are but some of you guys have some special Koolaid , please pass me some

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Not all of us are drinking Kool-aid yet.  This will be a true test of a lot of things, how good is Kirk Cousins when the other team gets to game plan for him and the surprise of him coming off the bench is eliminated.

 

I think the biggest factor for our defense will be depth along the defensive line.  It was pointed out that the Eagles flat out wore out the Colts with McCoy and Sproles and the tempo.  The Redskins will have to play ball control, get a lead in the second half and sit on it, move the chains.  That might be possible since Trent Richardson actually had some success against the Eagles Run D and I like our RB corps better.

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I predict that the eagles are going to get some big plays Sunday and people are going to be calling for haslett's job again.

The defense has played well against 2 average or below offenses. Which is exactly what they should do.

Now they've got to prove it against a really good offense with some very dangerous weapons.

 

Philly is gonna get big plays against every defense they face this year. That doesnt make us a bad defense. 

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It's a terrific start to the season but the sample size is too tiny to draw conclusions from. I'd love for us to keep playing well like we have, but I think our opponents were soft and we might have caught some lightning in a bottle with the defensive performance. We're talented, but not this talented. I would be thrilled with a top ten finish from the D and nine wins overall.

Hell I think we could possibly win our division with nine wins.

 

I think we are this talented, especially once we get Cofield back. Robinson is a stud, Amerson is a stud. Breeland might be the 2nd best CB on the team already and it's not like Hall has got any worse. Kerrigan has taken a step forward too and Orakpo is good. I think if we didn't get a top 10 defense I'd be disappointed.

 

 So losing to the team that had 1st pick in the draft

 

 

Because of bad QB play, massive injuries, and a lame duck coach. Similar to the Chiefs of a few years back - they still had playoff level talent, just a lot of things went wrong. We lost to the Texans due to a lot of mental errors which negated the fact that we beat them in all phases, then we dominated a genuinely bad team in all phases and ran up the score against them.

 

One of the best tests of how talented a team is is whether they can destroy bad teams. Not just beat them like we used to do against crappy Rams and Lions teams, but destroy them in every phase of the game. Even with losing our starting QB and WR, it was a total talent mismatch on both sides of the ball.

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Agree 100%. Let's see them do it against good offense before we start crowning this defense. They have definitely played well so far, no doubt about that. But the Texans and Jags aren't exactly good offenses.

Though the Texans did put up 30 (were there some defensive scores in there, not sure...) against the Raiders.

 

I think one of the reasons that the Texans offense looked pededstrian is that the 'Skins defense was playing very well.

 

That said, the Eagles offense is EXPLOSIVE, and brings weapons that they are not going to see at any other point this year, except during the rematch.  Spoles, McCoy and Maclin all can run, and Cooper is sneaky-fast.

 

The key is going to be bullying them up-front.  The weakness is the OL.  And our front 7 has to just go take their lunch money.  If you sit back and let them come after you, you're in for a really, really long day.

That said, the Eagles are going to score at least 24 points on just about every defense in the league.  They're good. So, we've got to be prepared for that. 

Philly is gonna get big plays against every defense they face this year. That doesnt make us a bad defense. 

I agree.  

 

The key is to limit the damage.  Keep them to 24-28 points, and give yourself a shot to win. 

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