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Is Philip Rivers tracking as a Hall of Fame QB?


justice98

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He's 32 now, let's say he finishes out the last 4-5 years of his career with similar numbers that he's put up his entire career.  He's been good for fairly big numbers, about 60-70% completion, 3500-4500 yards, 25-35 TDs, about 10-11INTs.  Fairly consistent in that regard.  He'll have all the career numbers you'd want, doesn't have a choke artist label or anything like that, known as a good leader, etc.

 

All that, but doesn't win a SB in this era where all of his peers have.  Manning, Brady, Brees, Rodgers, Roethlisberger all managed to get at least one.   His postseason record will probably wind up being around .500, which is not bad.  Generally performs well, even in defeat.

 

Or in this era of video game offensive football where anybody can put up numbers, do you have to win that SB?

 

Personally, I think he's been fairly underrated and is the best QB out of his draft class.  I think Roethlisberger's overrated and Manning is properly rated (meaning, the two SBs notwithstanding, I think people realize he's not a great QB).  

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I would say no, with this caveat:

 

Remember that AFC Championship in Foxboro when Rivers tore his ACL?  To see him stay in the fight and compete like San Diego civilization relied on the outcome impressed me FAR more than any career numbers.  That spoke to many of us in that primordial, visceral way - it was the sincerest form of sacrifice I guy in his position could show at that moment.  I've got big respect for that guy (and very little for LT, who sat on the sidelines with a jacket on during the game's crucial moments).

 

Anyhow, a Hall Of Famer needs a signature moment.  For my tastes, that's a mighty fine one.

 

Here's the video.

http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-network-top-ten/09000d5d810a58f8/Top-Ten-Gutsiest-Performances-Philip-Rivers

Not a bad anecdote for Canton, wouldn't you say?

 

 

EDIT: I couldn't get the damn video to play, so I just posted the link.

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For me,. there has to be some sort of accomplishment, some record set...something...associated with the player's career outside of really good stats.

This. With football, stats only tell so much about the individual. Sometimes you just need to simply ask yourself, is he one of the greatest of all time? So is Rivers one of the greatest QB's of all time?

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This. With football, stats only tell so much about the individual. Sometimes you just need to simply ask yourself, is he one of the greatest of all time? So is Rivers one of the greatest QB's of all time?

 

The sad part, I think Rivers is twice the QB Troy Aikman is, who's in that greatest of all time category by being in the HOF.  But Aikman's got all the rings from a loaded squad and thus got the Hall.  But I think Aikman's one of the most overrated QBs of all time.  

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In order to make the HOF, you need  combination of huge numbers and wins. Rivers doesn't really have either. He's got great numbers, but not quite Manning/Brees level. He's gotten the Chargers to the playoffs a bunch, but has never made the Super Bowl.

 

I think he's in Donovan McNabb land right now. Really good, but not quite HOF.

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I live in San Diego now, so I have been watching Rivers since the game where Brees hurt his shoulder.  Rivers is certainly a great QB and leader.  He is a touch passer and is very accurate.  He has won lots of games, including playoff games.

 

Sadly, come playoff time, the Charges have had some tough breaks.  Injuries to key players late in the season is one of them.  However, Rivers' Charges also beat Manning twice in the playoffs. 

 

As of now, he is not HOF material.  However, he does have a few seasons left.  A SB appearance might do the trick, but I think only a SB victory really gets him consideration.

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Kind of funny how this guys career may be defined by something that happened in his first year of starting. The moment that team switched to Norv, while he may have gotten better and better, the team around him got slightly worse, until he looked kind of lost in '11-'12. If he has more years like last year, and his team gets him to a Super Bowl where he can try for the first time, he may eventually become one. The Broncos are bordering on going supernova, and beyond that, the AFC doesn't have a whole lot to offer in terms of an overwhelming roadblock.

 

Hell they went toe to toe with them last year

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Sorry, no SB appearances and no records, you're not getting anywhere nowadays as a QB.  There are WAY too many good QBs in front of you.

 

Brady, both Mannings, Brees, Roethlisberger, and now you have the younger guys coming in that will take away from him later on.


Kind of funny how this guys career may be defined by something that happened in his first year of starting. The moment that team switched to Norv, while he may have gotten better and better, the team around him got slightly worse, until he looked kind of lost in '11-'12....

Which I remember several of us forecasting on here.  Of course, I wasn't the only one that said hiring Turner would be the dumbest thing the Chargers could have possibly done.  They could have hired just about ANYONE else and they would have gotten to a SB or 2 with that team.

 

Do you remember all the ******** and moaning by people still defending Norv?  Good grief, maybe now we can settle the "Norv was a victim" theory.  He's a terrible coach and his teams underperform almost every season.


I live in San Diego now, so I have been watching Rivers since the game where Brees hurt his shoulder....

That's another issue too.  Rivers may be remembered as the guy that replaced Brees, but never was as successful as Brees.

 

Not to say he CAN'T overcome that stigma, but a SB would help.  Steve Young did it, but he had both a SB and records at the time.

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It's possible to get into the HOF with just great numbers, but it's going to get harder as stats keep inflating for offenses. If Rivers was going to make it into the Hall without a ring or at least appearance, then he needs to be able to point to at least 1 season, maybe 2-3, where he can say "Yeah, I was the best QB in the NFL that season." He never really eclipsed Brees, Manning, or Brady. Eli and Ben have 2 rings. Rodgers and freaking Flacco have a ring.

 

He's never won an MVP. He was never top 3 statistically that I can remember (though I could be wrong). At this point, longevity + above average numbers is his best argument, and I don't think it'll work for him.

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It's possible to get into the HOF with just great numbers, but it's going to get harder as stats keep inflating for offenses. If Rivers was going to make it into the Hall without a ring or at least appearance, then he needs to be able to point to at least 1 season, maybe 2-3, where he can say "Yeah, I was the best QB in the NFL that season." He never really eclipsed Brees, Manning, or Brady. Eli and Ben have 2 rings. Rodgers and freaking Flacco have a ring.

 

He's never won an MVP. He was never top 3 statistically that I can remember (though I could be wrong). At this point, longevity + above average numbers is his best argument, and I don't think it'll work for him.

 

You could make an argument for 2008, when he led the league in TDs and passer rating.  Also 2010, he was in that mix of the top couple.  Really, that 3 year stretch from '08-'10, he was particularly good.  2009 was that Brees SB year, so he'd probably get the nod, but Rivers was right there too.

 

Frankly, Rivers is the best QB in Charger history, IMO.  And the other guy's in the HOF.  

 

So when I think of the best QBs of the last 10-12 years, I think Manning, Brady, Brees, Rodgers, and Rivers is that next guy. 

 

I just have always hated the correlation between rings and QBs though.

 

But clearly, I'm alone on this one.  lol

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It's not just about rings, although they play a big part.

 

For me, I ask myself the following:

 

In his X year career, did he have at least 2-4 seasons in which you look around and say "Holy ****, he was the best damn Quaterback in the league that year".

 

For me, the answer is an overwhelming no. 

The reason why is probably because the Chargers aren't a large market team. They never won a SB.  Their media coverage is minimal.  Why do you think Eli and his dad refused to go there? Hardly anyone on the east coast or the mid-west really follows the Chargers.

 

I think if Rivers played in the NFC East or on a large market team, you would hear about him a lot more than you do.

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Frankly, Rivers is the best QB in Charger history, IMO.  And the other guy's in the HOF.  

 

I dunno about that one there.  Dan Fouts used to put up insane numbers (which is mighty impressive considering the era in which he played).  I'm inclined to give him the title of most successful Charger QB, but definitely not best ever.

 

Honestly, Fouts is really underrated in my book.  I get a kick outta this:

 

 

That isn't to prove a point.  I just like that video.

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Here's the issue I have with even talking about Rivers as a HoF candidate.  I don't know of a year where I'd have put him in a list of top 10 or 15 players in the NFL.  There are a lot of players I'd have put ahead of him.  Heck, on his own team Ladainian Tomlinson would have been put up there for a few years ahead of Rivers.  Maybe even Vincent Jackson and Jamal Williams.  Those are the only ones I can think of off the top of my head, but just think if those 3 guys get the vote, because they were the best at their positions for a while, then there are likely a LOT of people out there ahead of Rivers.

 

I think he's a great QB, but I think he's had some bad luck.  I think the guy definitely has HoF talent, but he's been out-shined by others in the league.  If he had come into the NFL 20 years ago it would be no question.  

 

Think about this, the last time there was a QB in the HoF, it was Troy Aikman and Warren Moon in 2006.  So, it's not as if they take more QBs than any other position, even though that seems to be the perception.

 

Here are some of the guys who are in, just as a barometer for what it takes:

 

Steve Young - Tied with Sammy Baugh for record 6 Passing Titles, Set a record (at the time) with a 112.8 passer rating in 1994, Won SB29 as MVP with 6 passing TDs, All-Pro 4 times, MVP twice, 7 Pro-Bowls

 

Warren Moon - 44 when he retired after a 17 year NFL career, following a 6 year CFL career where he won 5 straight championships.  (Dude played professional football during 4 separate decades :blink: )  9 3,000 yard passing seasons was 3rd in NFL history at that time, 9 Pro-Bowls, 4 4,000 yard passing seasons, 1 All-Pro

 

Troy Aikman - 3 SB wins, won more games than any QB in the 90s, Held or tied 47 Dallas passing records, 6 Pro-Bowls, 1 All-Pro

 

John Elway - led 47 4th Quarter comebacks, 1 MVP, 1 All-Pro, All NFL 2nd team 3 times, 9 Pro-Bowls, 5 SB appearances, 2 SB wins, 1 SB MVP

 

Jim Kelly - Commanded the Bill's "No Huddle Offense" which is what everyone uses now as the "Hurry-Up Offense".  Though it had been used before, Kelly and team were the first to really use it full-time and make it successful.  4 Straight SB appearances, 4 Pro-Bowls, 8 3,000 yard seasons

 

Dan Marino - First player to pass for 5,000+ yards in season, threw 48 TDs (previous NFL record), 13 3,000 yard seasons, 1st or 2nd team All-Pro 8 times, 9 Pro-Bowls.

 

All these guys have something other than just good stats.  Here's Rivers, in comparison:

 

5 Pro-Bowls

1 Passing Title

8 3,000+ (5 4,000+) yard seasons

 

I don't see even a few more 3-4k yard seasons and another pro-bowl or two as being enough.  No SB appearances, no NFL records, and no All-Pro or MVPs.

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That's another issue too.  Rivers may be remembered as the guy that replaced Brees, but never was as successful as Brees.

 

Not to say he CAN'T overcome that stigma, but a SB would help.  Steve Young did it, but he had both a SB and records at the time.

In San Diego, Rivers has been more successful then Brees.  Brees was good, but not great and has gotten better with age.  SD was a very good and loaded team for a few years.  It is possible Brees would have won a SB out here, but is just speculation.

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Here's the issue I have with even talking about Rivers as a HoF candidate.  I don't know of a year where I'd have put him in a list of top 10 or 15 players in the NFL.  There are a lot of players I'd have put ahead of him.  Heck, on his own team Ladainian Tomlinson would have been put up there for a few years ahead of Rivers.  Maybe even Vincent Jackson and Jamal Williams.  Those are the only ones I can think of off the top of my head, but just think if those 3 guys get the vote, because they were the best at their positions for a while, then there are likely a LOT of people out there ahead of Rivers.

 

I think he's a great QB, but I think he's had some bad luck.  I think the guy definitely has HoF talent, but he's been out-shined by others in the league.  If he had come into the NFL 20 years ago it would be no question.  

 

Think about this, the last time there was a QB in the HoF, it was Troy Aikman and Warren Moon in 2006.  So, it's not as if they take more QBs than any other position, even though that seems to be the perception.

 

Here are some of the guys who are in, just as a barometer for what it takes:

 

Steve Young - Tied with Sammy Baugh for record 6 Passing Titles, Set a record (at the time) with a 112.8 passer rating in 1994, Won SB29 as MVP with 6 passing TDs, All-Pro 4 times, MVP twice, 7 Pro-Bowls

 

Warren Moon - 44 when he retired after a 17 year NFL career, following a 6 year CFL career where he won 5 straight championships.  (Dude played professional football during 4 separate decades :blink: )  9 3,000 yard passing seasons was 3rd in NFL history at that time, 9 Pro-Bowls, 4 4,000 yard passing seasons, 1 All-Pro

 

Troy Aikman - 3 SB wins, won more games than any QB in the 90s, Held or tied 47 Dallas passing records, 6 Pro-Bowls, 1 All-Pro

 

John Elway - led 47 4th Quarter comebacks, 1 MVP, 1 All-Pro, All NFL 2nd team 3 times, 9 Pro-Bowls, 5 SB appearances, 2 SB wins, 1 SB MVP

 

Jim Kelly - Commanded the Bill's "No Huddle Offense" which is what everyone uses now as the "Hurry-Up Offense".  Though it had been used before, Kelly and team were the first to really use it full-time and make it successful.  4 Straight SB appearances, 4 Pro-Bowls, 8 3,000 yard seasons

 

Dan Marino - First player to pass for 5,000+ yards in season, threw 48 TDs (previous NFL record), 13 3,000 yard seasons, 1st or 2nd team All-Pro 8 times, 9 Pro-Bowls.

 

All these guys have something other than just good stats.  Here's Rivers, in comparison:

 

5 Pro-Bowls

1 Passing Title

8 3,000+ (5 4,000+) yard seasons

 

I don't see even a few more 3-4k yard seasons and another pro-bowl or two as being enough.  No SB appearances, no NFL records, and no All-Pro or MVPs.

 

I already mentioned what I thought of Aikman, but i think Moon shouldn't be in the HOF either.  Mainly because I don't think his NFL career was HOF worthy and I never thought CFL exploits should count.   But I understand it's the "Pro Football" HOF, not the NFL HOF, so it is what it is.  

 

But if the argument is, was he ever thought of as the best, when did you ever think Moon was a top 10 player?  You lead the league in rating and TDs, it's hard not to argue you're not at least in the conversation as the best.  You know how many people have done that?  Young did it 3 times, Manning, Brady, and Warner did it twice, Brees, Marino, Montana and Rivers once.  That's pretty elite company to not be considered amongst the best.  

 

But counting MVPs and All-Pros is sketchy, because it's highly subjective.  You're basically at the mercy of the AP saying how great they thought you were.  And don't get me started on Pro Bowls.  If you look at the quality of Rivers' play, he measures up with any of his peers in every category but one and that's SBs.  

 

Man, y'all are tough though.  Vincent Jackson and Jamal Williams.  Really?  lol

In San Diego, Rivers has been more successful then Brees.  Brees was good, but not great and has gotten better with age.  SD was a very good and loaded team for a few years.  It is possible Brees would have won a SB out here, but is just speculation.

 

I don't think Brees ever would've done in SD what he's done in NO.  He had to go there to reach his full potential.  That Brees/Payton combination had to happen, I think.  They've got that chemistry.  And let's be honest, Payton's gotta call 700 pass plays a year, every year.  That certainly doesn't hurt.

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In San Diego, Rivers has been more successful then Brees.  Brees was good, but not great and has gotten better with age.  SD was a very good and loaded team for a few years.  It is possible Brees would have won a SB out here, but is just speculation.

I agree, but that doesn't matter since the HoF isn't looking at how good someone was with a particular team compared to another QB.  They're looking at how good a player was compared with EVERY player in the league during their career.  I also agree it's speculation, but the fact is, Brees won a SB, Rivers hasn't been to one.  That's really all that matters.

 

...But counting MVPs and All-Pros is sketchy, because it's highly subjective.  You're basically at the mercy of the AP saying how great they thought you were.  And don't get me started on Pro Bowls.  If you look at the quality of Rivers' play, he measures up with any of his peers in every category but one and that's SBs.  

 

Man, y'all are tough though.  Vincent Jackson and Jamal Williams.  Really?  lol

If we're asking for my personal opinion about who SHOULD be in the HoF, then we're in for a completely different conversation, but what was asked was if Rivers was on his way to the HoF.  The answer is "no".  

 

And if you have problems with players being "at the mercy of the AP" then you're in for a treat (though I'm sure you already know this).  This is who committees the NFL HoF Selection Committee:

 

"The Selection Committee consists of one media representative from each geographical area with a current NFL franchise.  If a geographical area has more than one franchise (such as New York City) there shall be a selector for each franchise.  A 33rd member is a representative of the Pro Football Writers of America and there are 13 at-large delegates."  

 

- See more at: http://www.profootballhof.com/hof/SelectionProcessFAQ.aspx#sthash.tH1uvGS6.dpuf

 

So, there's a reason if you weren't voted to the All-Pro team etc, that you likely won't get in the HoF.  It's based off of the opinions of those APers.  The players ARE at the AP's mercy.  It's very likely that even the voters are influenced by their peers.  

 

I'm not saying that I don't personally think Rivers is good enough.  I think he's been a great QB, but he doesn't have the big shiny trophy (or an appearance) and he hasn't done anything to set himself apart from his peers the way Brees, the Mannings, Brady, or Roethlisberger have.  That's 5 guys that are ahead of him, and have been nearly his entire career AS FAR AS HOF TRACKING GOES.

 

Obviously I don't think Eli or Ben are as good as Rivers, but they have the measureables that he's lacking.  That's all I'm saying.  He's not a HoFer at this point and unless he makes some records or wins a championship, he likely won't ever be.

 

And yes, there were years when Jamal Williams and Vincent Jackson overshadowed Rivers as playmakers on that team.  Is that because Rivers wasn't good, no.  It's just because, just like the OL getting very little in the way of recognition, Rivers hasn't had those BIG plays that have set him apart like some of those guys have.

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