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LA Times: Russia sends tanks and troops into Ukraine, seizes a strategic town


alexey

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http://www.latimes.com/world/europe/la-fg-ukraine-russia-invasion-20140828-story.html

Russia sends tanks and troops into Ukraine, seizes a strategic town

Russian tanks and troops fired their way into eastern Ukraine on Thursday and seized a strategic gateway town on the road to the heavily militarized Crimean peninsula in a brazen display of support for pro-Russia separatists fighting Ukrainian government troops.

Defense officials in Kiev, the Ukrainian capital, said two armored Russian columns burst across the border into southern Ukraine at midday and rolled over the town of Novoazovsk on the Sea of Azov, opening a new front in the 5-month-old separatist battle.

The government’s account was bolstered by satellite photos released by the North Atlantic Treaty Organization showing convoys of tanks and armored vehicles entering Ukraine from Russia's Rostov region over the last two weeks.

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I wonder if Putin was watching Obama's press conference earlier.  Not sure we should have ruled out any military intervention in Ukraine so visibly.  

 

 

 

 

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/europe/2014/08/ukraine-rebels-open-path-trapped-army-20148295161895605.html

Ukraine rebels to open path for trapped army

 

Separatists to allow "humanitarian corridor" for encircled troops in Novoazovsk after intervention by Russian president.

 

Ukraine's pro-Moscow separatists have agreed to let encircled Ukrainian government forces leave the rebel-held eastern town of Novoazovsk a day after capturing following intervention from Russian President Vladimir Putin.

 

"We are ready to give a humanitarian corridor," Alexander Zakharchenko, a rebel leader, told Rossiya 24 TV on Friday, adding that troops would have to leave their heavy armoured vehicles and ammunition.

 

The move came hours after Putin issued a statement published on the Kremlin's website overnight on Thursday, urging the separatists to "avoid unnecessary casualties".

 

"I call on the rebel forces to open a humanitarian corridor for the Ukrainian troops who are surrounded, so as to avoid unnecessary casualties and to give them the opportunity to withdraw from the zone of operations," said Putin.

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I wonder if Putin was watching Obama's press conference earlier.  Not sure we should have ruled out any military intervention in Ukraine so visibly.  

 

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/europe/2014/08/ukraine-rebels-open-path-trapped-army-20148295161895605.html

you can be very sure he was...

 

 

I was thinking the same thing.    I remember when Jimmy Carter ruled out military action to save the Iranian Hostages which he said were being held by "students"...   He made no progress on freeing the hostages for the next 18 months.    Carter subsequently lost the re-election bid to Ronald Reagan who when asked responded he wouldn't rule anything out including using the Bomb.    He went on to characterize the "Iranian students" holding our people as thugs and criminals not students...   Our hostages were returned within seconds / minutes of Reagan taking his oath of office.

 

I caught on NPR this morning that Ukraine was going to abandon it's non aligned status and formally ask for membership in NATO at the upcoming NATO meeting.   That's an interesting development and would kind of change Obama's position... It's been standing US policy that the Ukraine should be in NATO...   Germany and France traditionally have objected, least they did under the Bush Administration...   

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So if these are Russian troops, is this an invasion of a sovereign state?

They are, and it is.

How bad do things have to get when full on "war" talk? How bad do things have to get where we'll have to intervene in some way, shape or form?

And we've pretty much flat-out announced that he can just conquer the whole country, and all we'll do is put a few of his cabinet members on a "no fly" list. With US airlines.

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you can be very sure he was...

 

 

I was thinking the same thing.    I remember when Jimmy Carter ruled out military action to save the Iranian Hostages which he said were being held by "students"...   He made no progress on freeing the hostages for the next 18 months.    Carter subsequently lost the re-election bid to Ronald Reagan who when asked responded he wouldn't rule anything out including using the Bomb.    He went on to characterize the "Iranian students" holding our people as thugs and criminals not students...   Our hostages were returned within seconds / minutes of Reagan taking his oath of office.

 

I caught on NPR this morning that Ukraine was going to abandon it's non aligned status and formally ask for membership in NATO at the upcoming NATO meeting.   That's an interesting development and would kind of change Obama's position... It's been standing US policy that the Ukraine should be in NATO...   Germany and France traditionally have objected, least they did under the Bush Administration...   

 

This is just a tiny bit different than Iran and I would imagine that Putin doesn't care what anyone thinks or says at this point. Obama is right to say no military action because Europe needs to step up first. America can't always do the heavy lifting.

They are, and it is.

And we've pretty much flat-out announced that he can just conquer the whole country, and all we'll do is put a few of his cabinet members on a "no fly" list. With US airlines.

 

What should the US do and why?

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My question is, from my limited exposure, why isn't Ukraine defending it's own borders?

 

Did I miss the total annhilation of the Ukranian Army?  Or are they just standing by to let red white and blue blood stain the crimean?

 

If they won't fight for themselves, watch it burn.

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So if these are Russian troops, is this an invasion of a sovereign state? How bad do things have to get when full on "war" talk? How bad do things have to get where we'll have to intervene in some way, shape or form? 

 

We have no defense alliance with Ukraine,  and Russia doesn't represent an existential threat to either the US or Europe.

They don't have the kind of economy which would allow them to survive removed from Europe.   So we are just handling this with economic sanctions,  which will slowly strangle Russia's economy until they figure out they can't act like they did in the old Soviet days...   Even now their economy is in recession and hundreds of billions of foreign investment has fled their economy,  they've been down graded as an economic risk,  and that's not even taking into effect the sanctions both ours and theirs which are impacting the Russian general population.

It's a shame we buried so many bodies and trillions of dollars in the desert from 2002-2012.  We would be in a much better position to avert this if we had.

 

The Iraqi / Afghanistan war isn't the problem... It's the damned Asian Pivot.    We've removed most of our forces from Europe and we are re-positioning them around China.    This leaves us very few options with regards to Russia..   not that we would use a military option there.. but it's sure emboldened Russia to know we don't have our 1st Armor Corps and ground forces in Europe any longer.

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My question is, from my limited exposure, why isn't Ukraine defending it's own borders?

 

Did I miss the total annhilation of the Ukranian Army?  Or are they just standing by to let red white and blue blood stain the crimean?

 

If they won't fight for themselves, watch it burn.

 

Wait - is this a real post?

 

There is a huge contingent of Russian speaking separatists in the east of Ukraine.  They are armed, supplied and financed by Russia.   Ukraine tried to avoid civil war and tried to avoid provoking Russian and in response, Russia annexed Crimea.   Ukraine is now fighting the separatists to keep from losing the entire eastern half of their country to Russia.   The separatists control the border with Russia where the Russian troops are coming through.

 

Sheesh, if you think they are just sitting around doing nothing, you haven't been paying attention at all.  They are trying to keep their country together while at the same time trying not to give Russia justification for just steamrolling over them the way the Russians did in Georgia.  

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What should the US do and why?

I would love to see the announcement of some kind of Bold Declaration, something along the lines of the Monroe Doctrine or similar foreign policy statements:

And country which invades another and attempts to conquer it, will be opposed by the rest of the world. Including, specifically, the US, and anybody else who wants to join.

Yes, I'm well aware that a position like that has really major possible drawbacks. (Really? We gonna commit ourselves to protecting Tibet, for example? A landlocked country with exactly two, huge, borders: China AND Russia?) But it sure feels like the right thing to do, to me.

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This is just a tiny bit different than Iran and I would imagine that Putin doesn't care what anyone thinks or says at this point. Obama is right to say no military action because Europe needs to step up first. America can't always do the heavy lifting.

 

What should the US do and why?

 

We are the backbone and most of the mussel in NATO.   We outspend the next 18 countries combined in defense spending...   I think Russia is #3 behind China.   If we waffle on defending Europe then Putin acts period...

 

I'm not saying we should use troops in Europe against Russia.   I am saying we shouldn't publically rule it out.   We should keep Putin guessing, because when he has complete confidence their is nothing left to curb his bad behavior other than his humanitarian interests... aka their is nothing left to curb his bad behavior.

 

Let him believe he is risking US reprisal.   We should even redeploy some forces there to put up a good show...

 

Putin only looks like he doesn't care what folks think of him...  Facts are he's very concerned what we are thinking, and he's very concerned about Europe... cause we could swat him like a bug, and both of us could make him pay a huge economic price for this bad behavior.

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And come on, people.  We are not going to send US troops into Ukraine to fight against Russian troops, not in a million years.  Russia has nukes and we want NO part of a shooting war with them.  Our actions against  them have to be diplomatic, economic and assistance to Russia's neighbors.

 

Anyone who thinks that we could influence this situation by wagging our dicks and pretending that we might send US troops thinks that this is a big game of Risk or something.  It wouldn't fool Putin or anyone else in the entire world.  

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My question is, from my limited exposure, why isn't Ukraine defending it's own borders?

 

Did I miss the total annhilation of the Ukranian Army?  Or are they just standing by to let red white and blue blood stain the crimean?

 

If they won't fight for themselves, watch it burn.

 

Ukraine is defending their own boarders... and they were doing a pretty good job as it looked like they were about to remove the "opposition".     That's the reason why Putin invaded, because the covert Russian actions were failing and that required more overt Russian Actions.

 

Problem is the Ukrainian army is no match for the Russian Army in a head to head fight.   The Ukraine Army is literally a fraction of the old soviet army and Russia got the larger piece.   Also the Ukrainians gave up a lot of their soviet systems which would have helped them here in exchange for security grantees from Russia which Russia isn't honoring any longer at the moment.

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I'm not saying we should use troops in Europe against Russia.   I am saying we shouldn't publically rule it out.   We should keep Putin guessing, because when he has complete confidence their is nothing left to curb his bad behavior other than his humanitarian interests... aka their is nothing left to curb his bad behavior.

 

Let him believe he is risking US reprisal.   We should even redeploy some forces there to put up a good show...

 

 

 

This is ridiculous.

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And come on, people.  We are not going to send US troops into Ukraine to fight against Russian troops, not in a million years.  Russia has nukes and we want NO part of a shooting war with them.  Our actions against  them have to be diplomatic, economic and assistance to Russia's neighbors.

 

Anyone who thinks that we could influence this situation by wagging our dicks and pretending that we might send US troops thinks that this is a big game of Risk or something.  It wouldn't fool Putin or anyone else in the entire world.  

 

I was at a pentagon briefing last week where a three star general was lecturing on the inevitability of the United States nuking ISIS.  I was thinking he was crazy.    His logic was it's inevitable that ISIS is going to nuke us, and that will mandate us responding in kind.   By the end of his presentation,   I was pretty much in agreement with him.   wasn't happy about it,  but he was right.   It's really not about our restraint or our actions leading up to this eventual disaster..   We are entirely hostage to the policies of whackadoodle extremists.  Hitting them now and letting them know we are serious is thus a superior policy than sitting back and waiting for their humanitarian values to curb their constant path to our eventual action.

 

So it is with Putin...   Do you think NATO projecting weakness is a way to Get Putin to stop annexing other countries territory?

And if not,  then it's only a matter of time before Putin starts annexing NATO countries,   or annexing countries and causing human catastrophes which NATO can no longer ignore.

 

It's far better to roll up a newspaper now when he's still manageable than it is to wait until he's reassembled a large part of the soviet union again.   Putin is a bully, and he's not going to stop until you stop him.   That doesn't mean going to war.   It does mean using our military in such away to make Putin's bad behavior have consequences that will give him pause in the future.

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And come on, people.  We are not going to send US troops into Ukraine to fight against Russian troops, not in a million years.  Russia has nukes and we want NO part of a shooting war with them.  Our actions against  them have to be diplomatic, economic and assistance to Russia's neighbors.

 

Anyone who thinks that we could influence this situation by wagging our dicks and pretending that we might send US troops thinks that this is a big game of Risk or something.  It wouldn't fool Putin or anyone else in the entire world.  

So what can be done? Are these sanctions going to be enough to deter any more military action? The last thing we need is a third World War, but what's going to stop Russia from doing whatever they want in Ukraine, especially if the Ukrainian army is fighting the Russians, as well as armed separatists? Does Putin have plans to march straight through to Kiev and if so, what's to stop him from doing it? Will the EU powers make some kind of military coalition if things get bad enough?

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This is ridiculous.

 

That was US policy for the better part of the Last 5 decades in dealing with Russia.

 

We have the best and most capable military in the world..    Why the hell would we telegraph to Putin how we plan on using it?

Putin's not telegraphing his moves to us...  Hell he's not even admitting to the moves we can prove he's making...

 

If such brinkmanship is ridiculous, and I'm not saying you are wrong..   The entire cold war and Detante was ridiculous;  however; that didn't make it any less necessary.

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So what can be done? Are these sanctions going to be enough to deter any more military action? The last thing we need is a third World War, but what's going to stop Russia from doing whatever they want in Ukraine, especially if the Ukrainian army is fighting the Russians, as well as armed separatists? Does Putin have plans to march straight through to Kiev and if so, what's to stop him from doing it? Will the EU powers make some kind of military coalition if things get bad enough?

 

There are three things exerting pressure on Putin's economy...  (1) Foreign investment fleeing his markets... (2) Our sanctions.  (3) His sanctions on us.   So far our sanctions are a distant second.     So far we are unwilling to act alone in sanctions which would be mitigated by a lack of consensus with Europe, and so far Germany has been unwilling to put in place sanctions which would negatively effect Germany's economy.   

 

You will know we are starting to get serious with sanctions when we target anything to do with Russia's energy exports...  Until then so far it looks like the free market is really taking it's toll on Russia's economy all by itself.    Since their annexation in Crimea the economic recovery in Russia has stopped and their economy is back in recession.. unemployment is climbing, and they have been forced to spend many tens of billions defending their currency.    All bad things, and as I've said,  our sanctions so far are not driving these events.. it's mostly all the foreign investors fleeing Russia's economy.

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So, lets say Putin, at great cost to his economy and international standing, re-absorbs the Ukraine.  How is this really a big problem for us or the EU?

Maybe not, and maybe I'm being an idealist, but I'd feel pretty icky if the world's powers just allowed one state to take over another by force. I recall something like that happening nearly 75 years ago and the European continent didn't take too kindly to it. 

 

I understand these are different times, but can the world really allow Russia to go in and take Ukraine, a sovereign, independent state? 

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Anyone who thinks that we could influence this situation by wagging our dicks and pretending that we might send US troops thinks that this is a big game of Risk or something.

 

Isn't that exactly what kept the cold war from turning hot..

 

It is stupid to suggest Putin should be given all the answers to his most dire questions,  while we should be kept guessing.

It is stupid to suggest Putin doesn't fear us.   Taking our options off the table unilaterally vastly simplify the repercussion calculations for Putin's actions...    Why shouldn't Putin have some doubt?

 

It wouldn't fool Putin or anyone else in the entire world.  

Yes when in the history of US / Russian relations did we ever miscalculate what the other was thinking, or actions the other would take? Just about Always.

The separatists control the border with Russia where the Russian troops are coming through.

That's incorrect. The Ukrainian army was winning the war against the separatists. The Ukrainian army had the separatists cut off from the boarder and was squeezing the life out of them. That's why Putin's covert aid has gotten overt.

That's why Putin sent tanks across the boarder to re-establish supply lines with his proxies.

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I was at a pentagon briefing last week where a three star general was lecturing on the inevitability of the United States nuking ISIS.  I was thinking he was crazy.    His logic was it's inevitable that ISIS is going to nuke us, and that will mandate us responding in kind.   By the end of his presentation,   I was pretty much in agreement with him.   wasn't happy about it,  but he was right.   It's really not about our restraint or our actions leading up to this eventual disaster..   We are entirely hostage to the policies of whackadoodle extremists.  Hitting them now and letting them know we are serious is thus a superior policy than sitting back and waiting for their humanitarian values to curb their constant path to our eventual action.

 

So it is with Putin...   Do you think NATO projecting weakness is a way to Get Putin to stop annexing other countries territory?

And if not,  then it's only a matter of time before Putin starts annexing NATO countries,   or annexing countries and causing human catastrophes which NATO can no longer ignore.

 

It's far better to roll up a newspaper now when he's still manageable than it is to wait until he's reassembled a large part of the soviet union again.   Putin is a bully, and he's not going to stop until you stop him.   That doesn't mean going to war.   It does mean using our military in such away to make Putin's bad behavior have consequences that will give him pause in the future

 

 

Isis and Putin's Russia (the one with 2 million troops under arms and 4800 nuclear weapons) are not the same.   Saying " Hitting them now and letting them know we are serious" is an empty slogan when you are talking about Russia.  It's annoying and meaningless.  

 

So is saying "roll up a newspaper."   We are not sending our troops there and risking a flare up that could lead to WWIII.  No way.   We know it, the Russians know it, the Ukranians know it, the Poles know it, the Germans know it.  Everyone knows it except US armchair generals on the internet.  

 

Pretending that we "ooh hoo we might send our troops to Ukraine, you never know, be scared Putin" would just make us look stupid.  Saying "using our military in such away to make Putin's bad behavior have consequences that will give him pause in the future" is meaningless.  It's word salad. 

 

NATO deters Putin from action against NATO countries, but Ukraine is not a member of NATO.  NATO is not in the "protect the entire world from all aggression" business, it is in the "protect NATO members from aggression" business.   

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