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2015 Fantasy Football Thread


MattFancy

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It's that time! With training camp just a few weeks away, it's offically time to start ramping up for Fantasy Football season!!!

 

As always, here are some useful sites for all your drafts:

 

Rotoworld

FootballGuys (subscription, but totally worth it)

ESPN Fantasy Football

Fantasy Football Calculator (great site for mock drafts)

Yahoo! Fantasy Football

KFFL

Fantasy Pros

FFToolbox

RotoPass (subscription)

 

Any other useful sites you may have, feel free to post and I'll add them to the list. Let's start talking fantasy!!

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So I am still struggling with this decision on who to keep from my 2013 team and who to try to sell. Every team can keep up to two players and also "sell" a player to another team pre-draft for them to keep if they lack keeper options. You can sell said player for a fee, which transfers from their cap to yours. If, say, Adrian Peterson costs $45 to keep ...they pay that PLUS the transfer fee. It might work for someone who, for example, really wants AP and sees that he's going on avg. for $62. They could offer me $10, and keep AP for $55 and not get in a bidding war.

 

Anyway, I came in 4th with my stacked team. It's a $220 cap with QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, W/R, W/R/T, TE plus K, D and 6 bench (so 16 total). It's a .5 PPR league with a $220 cap. Yahoo leagues default at $200 caps, so while Ap is going on avg. for $57, to scale that to my league's cap, that amount is $62, etc.

 

My keeper options:

1. Adrian Peterson = $45 to keep going for $62 in Yahoo Leagues - concerned about the "cliff"

2. Jimmy Graham = $41 to keep going for $61 in Yahoo Leagues - Almost have to keep him

3. Le'Veon Bell = $20 to keep going for $46 in Yahoo Leagues - Proj. Top 10, cheap and PPR value

4. Zac Stacy = $20 to keep going for $36 in Yahoo Leagues - potential AlMo clone, cheap

5. Jordy Nelson = $20 to keep going for $38 in Yahoo Leagues - Top 6 WR, cheap to keep

 

I also have Alfred Morris ($44 to keep but going for $32 in Yahoo Leagues) and Pierre Garcon ($22 to keep going for $19) ... so obviously I'd be better off letting them go and buying them back cheaper.

 

Anyway, I initially thought it would be a no-brainer to keep Bell/Stacy for real cheap and try to sell AP for like $10 so my cap would start at $230. But now Graham is going for insanely high amounts, so I perceive his value to be better. I'm leaning toward Graham/Bell for a combined $61 and either selling AP or Stacy for $10-15. 

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I think you keep Graham for sure, since he's head and shoulders above all the other TEs and you're getting him at a great price. After Graham, it's between AP and Nelson for me. Bell reminds me of Trent Richardson. His numbers his rookie year weren't terrible, but not overly impressive. He only averaged 3.5 YPC, which is nothing special. Stacy was good last year, but with the addition of Tre Mason, I'm not sure he will see the majority of carries like he did last season. I'd probably go with Nelson since he's cheaper than AP and could easily be a top 10 WR this year. With Rodgers and Cobb healthy, Nelson should see a good amount of targets and teams can't focus on him with a healthy Cobb lined up on the other side.

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I think you keep Graham for sure, since he's head and shoulders above all the other TEs and you're getting him at a great price. After Graham, it's between AP and Nelson for me. Bell reminds me of Trent Richardson. His numbers his rookie year weren't terrible, but not overly impressive. He only averaged 3.5 YPC, which is nothing special. Stacy was good last year, but with the addition of Tre Mason, I'm not sure he will see the majority of carries like he did last season. I'd probably go with Nelson since he's cheaper than AP and could easily be a top 10 WR this year. With Rodgers and Cobb healthy, Nelson should see a good amount of targets and teams can't focus on him with a healthy Cobb lined up on the other side.

Interesting. I would have a hard time going into the season with no one at RB when I have AP/Bell/Stacy at my disposal ... but I am going to target the following players regardless of who I keep ... their going rate in parentheses:

 

RB:

- Alfred Morris ($31), Doug Martin ($37), CJ Spiller ($21), Pierre Thomas ($2), Bishop Sankey ($13), Carlos Hyde ($1)

 

WR:

- Kendall Wright ($4), Michael Floyd ($6), Golden Tate ($4), Michael Crabtree ($14), Cordarelle Patterson ($13), Kenny Stills ($2), DeAndre Hopkins ($2)

 

I'm actually planning to build a team around 3-4 of those WRs regardless of who I keep. I think that group of wide outs are the future of the position and if I can get 3-4 of them on the cheap (for the combined cost of a good #2 WR, essentially), I think I will set myself up to succeed.

 

I think this year, more than any other in recent memory, will be won based on breakout players. Outside of Charles/McCoy/AP there aren't really any guarantees at RB ... lots of young guys and aging players with questions ... and at WR there are the usual suspects in the Top 6/7 or so, but after that you have a bunch of guys who could finish in the Top 10 ... and a crop of young wideouts primed to break out ... 

 

So if you play your cards right and invest in the right amount of young depth, you could be set. That's why I'm interested in maybe keeping 2 "sure things" and then building the rest of my team through these "breakout" candidates.

 

You also have those RBs I listed above who could easily finish Top 5 and have stud years but because of down years last year, have fallen off. Guys like Doug Martin, CJ Spiller and Alfred Morris. You could have those 3 for the cost of Jamaal Charles in some leagues. 

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Interesting. I would have a hard time going into the season with no one at RB when I have AP/Bell/Stacy at my disposal ... but I am going to target the following players regardless of who I keep ... their going rate in parentheses:

 

RB:

- Alfred Morris ($31), Doug Martin ($37), CJ Spiller ($21), Pierre Thomas ($2), Bishop Sankey ($13), Carlos Hyde ($1)

 

WR:

- Kendall Wright ($4), Michael Floyd ($6), Golden Tate ($4), Michael Crabtree ($14), Cordarelle Patterson ($13), Kenny Stills ($2)

 

I'm actually planning to build a team around 3-4 of those WRs regardless of who I keep. I think that group of wide outs are the future of the position and if I can get 3-4 of them on the cheap (for the combined cost of a good #2 WR, essentially), I think I will set myself up to succeed.

 

RB is actually a little deeper than people think. If you ended up with those RBs there, that would be a solid group. Honestly, I don't think Bell/Stacy would be much better than any of those guys. Sure you could keep them for cheaper, but I'm not sure they will produce a ton. Pierre Thomas is a really nice sleeper this year with Sproles out of NO. Thomas is a PPR machine in the backfiled so he'll continue to be involved in the passing game.

 

As for those WRs, I like Floyd the best, especially for the price. Wright is solid in a PPR if you can get him for that.

 

Just make sure you have a plan going into the draft. Auction drafts can change very quickly based on who is nominated first.

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Just make sure you have a plan going into the draft. Auction drafts can change very quickly based on who is nominated first.

Yeah this is going to be our 3rd year doing it in this format. I love auctions ... and it can change so quickly. I think my strategy this year is to put down the guys I "want" ... like those 4-5 WRs. If I can get them all for around what they're going for in Yahoo leagues, it really opens me up to make some big investments elsewhere. It's just a matter of where I want to make those investments. I think i'm going to have 4-5 WRs and 4-5 RBs that I want to target if they're at that price, and if I can get 2-3 of each I'll be happy.

 

I would say the only reason Bell/Stacy aren't no-brainers for me at that cost is because of their YPC in 2013. Bell had an awful OL ... and he's a stud PPR option. He was very solid last year, and consistent when healthy. But your allusion to Trent Richardson is spot on and exactly why I'm nervous about both.

 

I do feel like Zac Stacy is comparable to Alfred Morris though.

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Yeah this is going to be our 3rd year doing it in this format. I love auctions ... and it can change so quickly. I think my strategy this year is to put down the guys I "want" ... like those 4-5 WRs. If I can get them all for around what they're going for in Yahoo leagues, it really opens me up to make some big investments elsewhere. It's just a matter of where I want to make those investments. I think i'm going to have 4-5 WRs and 4-5 RBs that I want to target if they're at that price, and if I can get 2-3 of each I'll be happy.

 

I would say the only reason Bell/Stacy aren't no-brainers for me at that cost is because of their YPC in 2013. Bell had an awful OL ... and he's a stud PPR option. He was very solid last year, and consistent when healthy. But your allusion to Trent Richardson is spot on and exactly why I'm nervous about both.

 

I do feel like Zac Stacy is comparable to Alfred Morris though.

 

I would like Stacy more if they didn't draft Tre Mason. Mason worries me a bit in St. Louis. He was regarded as one of the top RBs in the draft and they took him in the 4th (ahead of where Stacy went last year). Not saying that means Mason will play more or be better, but it's certainly something to monitor.

 

Bell isn't a bad RB, but his terrible YPC doesn't sit well with me. Plus they just added Blount, who I'm sure will take away a few carries a game. Out of the 13 games Bell played last season, only 4 times did he break 75yds rushing. Not exactly impressive. The thing that helped him last season were his 8TDs. 45 catches are good and mayeb he can build on that, but it's hard to say his TDs will stay the same or go up with Blount being there now.

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Bell isn't a bad RB, but his terrible YPC doesn't sit well with me. Plus they just added Blount, who I'm sure will take away a few carries a game. Out of the 13 games Bell played last season, only 4 times did he break 75yds rushing. Not exactly impressive. The thing that helped him last season were his 8TDs. 45 catches are good and mayeb he can build on that, but it's hard to say his TDs will stay the same or go up with Blount being there now.

Well, I will certainly gauge the interest of my league-mates and see if anyone will bite on Bell. In our league, his draft-value is something like $46 ... if I could sell him for $20 (so the person keeps him for $40 and I make a cool $20 and start with a $240 cap) I think that's a no-brainer. Then I have no issue keeping AP/Graham or Graham/Stacy or Graham/Nelson.

 

I plan on winning my league this year through RGIII's resurgence, drafting AlMo below value, and targeting breakouts at WR. The guy who won my league last year did so because he had Alshon Jeffery and Keenan Allen on his squad, who carried him down the stretch and who I think cost him a combined $2 in the draft). I think that's the best strategy, at least in my league. Get a few guaranteed workhorses then try and find those flyers who will carry your team unexpectedly. Last year that was Bell/Stacy for me, but the rest of my team faltered (RGIII/Brady at QB most notably)

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I like the idea of trying to move Bell and Stacy to give you more cap room. Seems like a no-brainer if you could move both and then keep Graham and AP.

 

Some sleepers that could work worth something:

 

RB:

Pierre Thomas, Devonta Freeman, Terrance West, Stevan Ridley, Charles Sims

 

WR:

Jordan Matthews, Reggie Wayne (seems to be going late in mocks I've done), Marqise Lee, Kenny Britt

 

TE:

Travis Kelce, Tyler Eifert, Levine Toliolo

 

Those guys can be had for pretty cheapr probably or for good value in the case of Wayne and Ridley

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For some reason, I got a sneaky suspicion that Odell Beckham might ball out for the Giants this year. I don't have any reasoning behind it, I just expect him to be decent. 

I also think Nicks can put up some decent numbers in Indy. 

 

Some more receivers I have my eyes on that people might sleep on:
Cordell Patterson (Min)

Marlon Brown (Bal)

DeAndre Hopkins (Hou)

 

I'm really feeling Hopkins and Patterson. I heard Brown looked good in camp, but with Smith, and um... Smith, Pitta, and Daniels, would Flacco be able to spread it around enough?

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For some reason, I got a sneaky suspicion that Odell Beckham might ball out for the Giants this year. I don't have any reasoning behind it, I just expect him to be decent. 

I also think Nicks can put up some decent numbers in Indy. 

 

Some more receivers I have my eyes on that people might sleep on:

Cordell Patterson (Min)

Marlon Brown (Bal)

DeAndre Hopkins (Hou)

 

I'm really feeling Hopkins and Patterson. I heard Brown looked good in camp, but with Smith, and um... Smith, Pitta, and Daniels, would Flacco be able to spread it around enough?

 

Can forget about ppl sleeping on Patterson. The Draftmasters I've done along with some mocks usually have him going around WR12-WR15. You'd have to jump on him around 4th/5th round.

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I'm really feeling Hopkins and Patterson. I heard Brown looked good in camp, but with Smith, and um... Smith, Pitta, and Daniels, would Flacco be able to spread it around enough?

Yeah ... Hopkins is kind of being overlooked mainly because of the QB situation, but he's got a ton of potential. The stats comparisons between Josh Gordon as a rookie and 2nd year under Norv Turner to Cordarelle are almost identical. I'm really enticed by Patterson. I would make him my #2 in a heart beat for what he's going for, which is $11-13 in most leagues.

 

Right now my top "sleepers" ... and I'm talking about guys who can finish in the Top 10-15 ... not just make an impact as a rookie ... 

1. Cordarelle Patterson (top 5 potential)

2. Michael Crabtree  (top 5 potential)

3. Kendall Wright (top 15 potential)

4. DeAndre Hopkins (top 15 potential)

5. Michael Floyd (top 10 potential)

6. Golden Tate (top 15 potential)

7. Kenny Stills (top 15 potential)

 

Those might be a bit aggressive but outside of Patterson ($13) and Crabtree ($14) all of those players are going for $6 or less in auction drafts. Hence why I think getting any of those 5 would result in some success, since theoretically you could get 5 of them for less than $40 combined, which could really allow you to spread your money around elsewhere. 

 

Of course if they all suck, you're in trouble. But if you draft 5 of those players, you're bound to get 3-4 that are worth starting in a rotation.

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Couple RB's I've been reading about that could/should be good bargains. I'm in a .5 PPR league so my rankings are kind of influenced by that, but it's also a nice happy/medium between those who do standard and those that do full PPR.

 

1. Doug Martin ($34) --- With upgrades to team/OL have to imagine he re-emerges as a top RB --- but being drafted in the 8-12 value range

2. Alfred Morris ($28) --- being drafted in the 10-14 range but should be a Top 8 RB if he stays healthy and the Skins offense flourishes

3. Stevan Ridley ($2) --- seriously ... I know he was awful last year, but $2 for a guy one year removed from Top 10?

4. Trent Richardson ($4) --- see above

5. Christine Michael ($1) --- not being drafted or being drafted very low ... one Marshawn Lynch injury or slow-down away from superstardom

6. Ka'Deem Carey ($1) --- again, Forte is on verge of that cliff ... if he falters or gets hurt, Carey is the man

7. Rashaad Jennings ($14) --- Giants run the ball and he's the main man in that offense this year

8. CJ Spiller ($21) --- a bit of a risk but if he finally emerges as the 1A back as many expect, he's well worth the investment

9. Carlos Hyde ($2) --- lot of traffic in SF but should end up as the guy to replace Gore

10. Piere Thomas ($2) --- Especially in PPR leagues ... 77 catches last year WITH Sproles there

 

Others:

1. Gio Bernard ($32) --- depends on how much he's fed with the new RB there but ... loads of potential. But the secrets out on him and that's reflected in his draft position

2. Montee Ball ($52) --- again ... secrets out ... if anything may be risky because of high cost

3. Bishop Sankey ($12) --- main guy in TEN but a bit of an unknown, but not too terribly expensive

4. Terrance West ($1) --- Could emerge as the #2 RB in Cleveland which could be beneficial with the injury-prone Tate ahead of him

 

I read a very fascinating statistical analysis of Top 10 RBs from year to year. Only 30% of Top 10 RBs have repeated their performance from one year to the next over the last 10 years. Think about that. That's why I am going to try and load up on the fringe top 10 guys, especially guys that weren't there last year but had been there the year before. They're the most likely to get back in. Look for guys like Marshawn Lynch, Matt Forte, Adrian Peterson and Arian Foster to be on the outside looking in this year as they pass that risky 28-29 year old cliff ...

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Running Backs that I am watching to enter the Top 10 this year, who did not rank in the Top 10 last year, ordered on likelihood:

1. Doug Martin, TB

2. Montee Ball, DEN

3. Le'Veon Bell, PIT

4. Gio Bernard, CIN

5. Alfred Morris, WAS

6. Zac Stacy, STL

7. CJ Spiller, BUF
8. Bishop Sankey, TEN

9. Andre Ellington, ARI

10. Toby Gerhart, JAX

 

2013 Top 10 RBs likely to miss out on the Top 10, ordered on likelihood to miss:

1. Knowshon Moreno, MIA

2. Chris Johnson, NYJ

3. Reggie Bush, DET

4. Marshawn Lynch, SEA

5. Matt Forte, CHI

6. Adrian Peterson, MIN

7. DeMarco Murray, DAL

8. Eddie Lacy, GB

9. Jamaal Charles, KC

10. LeSean McCoy, PHI

 

So if, statistically, only 3 of the 10 I just listed are to repeat, I would have to put my money on Lacy/Charles/McCoy ... with Murray (health) being an easy 4th if he plays most of the season. The rest, because of age and their rolls in their offenses and the ware/tear of the last few years, might be doomed.

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Question for Fantasy experts: What is the best draft position if given a choice and why ( 1st pick, 2nd, 3rd, etc.)?

 

The league is using ESPN standard, 10 teams with a snake draft (reverse order ever other round). There are 16 roster spots starting 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 Flex-RB/WR/TE, DST, and K (no IDP). League manager lets us request draft order spots and tries to accommodate as many requests at possible.

 

Given your suggested draft position (i.e. 1st pick3rd pick, etc.), what strategies/players/positions do you suggest I target?

I’d appreciate any advice you can give.

 

Oh yea, we do play for money ($150 buy-in).

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@FightforOldDC ...

 

Tough call there ... I think 3rd could be a good spot if you trust Adrian Peterson (assuming he doesn't go 1st or 2nd). But I would imagine Charles/McCoy would go 1-2 ... if you have a love affair with one or both then 1st or 2nd would probably be a better spot but 3rd could work out well. You could get AP (or McCoy Charles if they fall there) and then turn around and go WR or a strong RB2 with your 2nd round pick. But 3rd is a bit dicey, mainly because AP might be hard to trust as a 29 going on 30 year old RB. 

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@JMS

 

Thanks, JMS, for your insight. I did one mock with the 3rd pick that netted me the following in the first 5 rounds:

1.3

Jamaal Charles, KC

2.8

Julio Jones, Atl

3.3

Alshon Jeffery, Chi

4.8

Toby Gerhart, Jac

5.3

Matthew Stafford, Det

I doubt JC will fall to 3 but would love it. Drafting 3rd makes for a long wait until pick 2 but I like the quick turnaround for the 3rd pick. Getting 3 picks in the first 23 picks will get at least 1 tier 1 RB and at least 2 tier 2 players at WR1/WR2 or WR1/RB2.

 

What’s the earliest round I need to draft a QB to get a good one? A lot of mocks I’ve done have Stafford and Luck going in 5th and 6th rounds. Could Brees realistically be around in the 4th (37th Pick)? Or, would you wait until later to target another QB and who?

Thanks!

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Anyway, I initially thought it would be a no-brainer to keep Bell/Stacy for real cheap and try to sell AP for like $10 so my cap would start at $230. But now Graham is going for insanely high amounts, so I perceive his value to be better. I'm leaning toward Graham/Bell for a combined $61 and either selling AP or Stacy for $10-15.

Is your league PPR? If so' I'd go with Graham and Nelson

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