JMS

Obamacare...(new title): GOP DEATH PLAN: Don-Ryan's Express

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Now as we wait the final few hours / days until the Supreme court anounces their finding on Obamacare I thought we could discuss the next steps...

If Obamacare wins and is upheald, clearly the GOP will continue to try to kill it... Seems like it will be harder without the "unconstitutional" argument... But I suspect they will continue to try... I think Obama will get a bump in the polls as a reward for a hard fought victory.... I expect that bump to be very short lived however and not a factor in November.. I also expect the Democrats to get on to phase II of healthcare reform and try to work on more savings.

If Obamacare looses and is found unconstitutional. The President and congress go back to the drawing board anyway... regardless of who wins the Presidency the country will be bankrupt in a decade if healthcare waste isn't addressed. Both parties know that. If Obamacare / mandate is tossed out; that only leaves a government run system as a viable alternative... Which will be very unpalatable to the Republicans... but before that occurs I look for the republican to cherry pick popular items out of Obamacare and try to pass them piece meal... Figure it won't extend coverage to nearly as many people, or cut costs nearly as much, but we will still get some of Obamacare's core features.

If the court just drops the mandate, then that's your basic disaster as they are syaing insurance premiums would jump by 10-30% likely greatly increasing the number of folks without insurance, further increasing the pressure on rising premiums.

Anyway, It's like Churchill said... We are not at the end, or even the beginning of the end, but perhaps we are at the end of the beginning.

Edited by JMS

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Where does the cost savings come from? The fines I, and plenty of others, will pay?

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I'm not sure why the resignation of the head of the center in charge of health reform (Steve Larsen, last Friday) isn't making news. I have no idea if it's related to the SC decision in any way, but the timing is curious, at a minimum.

It looks like this will be released next Monday. Both sides are certainly doing all they can to prepare for the fallout regardless of the decision (all upheld, all struck down, only mandate struck down, mandate+ struck down). They'll both be out by next Monday night with well-coordinated talking points about what this means for the future. Then all of the liberals will agree with all of the liberal talking points and all of the conservatives will agree with all of the conservatives' talking points. This much I can predict with certainty. :)

It's anyone's guess how this affects the election. I'm sure both sides will try to make this decision help them in some way.

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If it fails President Obama will decree that Medicaid will no longer require proof of income/residence.

problem solved the new way.

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I'm going to go ahead and make a prediction about the outcome. Despite all the rumors that some portion of the law will likely be thrown out, I think the entire law will be upheld by both Kennedy and Roberts, making it 6-3 to leave the law as it stands.

Trying to judge how the court will sway based on the line of questioning is often misleading, and I think it will prove to be so in this case.

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Will not make any guesses but I just hope I can watch enough before I have to head out to work. They are airing it at 7 AM here.

---------- Post added June-28th-2012 at 09:01 AM ----------

Wolf Blitzer on CNN leading the coverage. What networks will the rest of you be watching this decision on?

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Will not make any guesses but I just hope I can watch enough before I have to head out to work. They are airing it at 7 AM here.

---------- Post added June-28th-2012 at 09:01 AM ----------

Wolf Blitzer on CNN leading the coverage. What networks will the rest of you be watching this decision on?

At work so Twitter is my friend

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This is as hyped up as "The Decision"

Can't wait...53 minutes to go

---------- Post added June-28th-2012 at 09:08 AM ----------

I look forward to your brilliant analysis of the decision.

Will do my best.

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Where does the cost savings come from? The fines I, and plenty of others, will pay?
I doubt this applies to your personal situation. But to the extent that statement translates into "forcing those with means to stop freeloading on the health care system", then yes that is a part of the savings.

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The only thing that is missing from such a pivotal moment is Brent Musburger. If he appeared out of nowhere on CNN and said "You are looking live" I would freak out.

---------- Post added June-28th-2012 at 09:31 AM ----------

This is 2012. How does CNN still have this crappy low-FPS feed outside the courthouse? :ols:

Edited by ixcuincle

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Best coverage by far - scotusblog.com.

They expect 500,000 - 1 million on their live blog during the ruling.

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the cynic in me will be astounded if this isn't struck down 5 to 4, which is really unfortunate. people who don't have health insurance reduce the quality and increase the cost for those of us who do.

i wholeheartedly reject the conservative argument against health insurance. how many of those arguing against the mandate would want to go without health insurance? none, of course. it's some convoluted slippery-slope principle that i think really boils down to a complete misunderstanding of the implications: if conservatives truly understood that this was in their own economic best interest, their objections would melt away. i do not buy that their outrage is based on anything other than that.

Edited by greenspandan

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i wholeheartedly reject the conservative argument against health insurance. how many of those arguing against the mandate would want to go without health insurance? none, of course. it's some convoluted slippery-slope principle that i think really boils down to a complete misunderstanding of the implications: if conservatives truly understood that this was in their own economic best interest, their objections would melt away. i do not buy that their outrage is based on anything other than that.

This conservative doesn't currently have health insurance.

This conservative doesn't believe the federal government can force the purchase of a private product.

This conservative wouldn't receive coverage, he'd receive fines/tax increases.

This conservative takes the above facts and draws the conclusion that the man who would put all that into place doesn't give one jack **** about the "little guy" as he claims.

But yeah, I guess I'm selfish about not wanting to pay for your healthcare, while still not having my own. Oh, and if the government can force you to buy a private product, I hope everyone will be required to purchase a Nissan next. Then I WILL be able to afford my own insurance.

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I'll stick with my previous prediction, anyone else want to make a guess before the announcement today?

Sure. Struck down 5-4, strictly along party lines.

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This conservative doesn't currently have health insurance.

This conservative doesn't believe the federal government can force the purchase of a private product.

This conservative wouldn't receive coverage, he'd receive fines/tax increases.

This conservative takes the above facts and draws the conclusion that the man who would put all that into place doesn't give one jack **** about the "little guy" as he claims.

But yeah, I guess I'm selfish about not wanting to pay for your healthcare, while still not having my own. Oh, and if the government can force you to buy a private product, I hope everyone will be required to purchase a Nissan next. Then I WILL be able to afford my own insurance.

Freeloader.

(I'm just messing with you, HH.)

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The ObamaCare bill is just another funneling to big business' as always.

Greedy business' cut their health care plan and force their people on a new version of Medicaid save 8k per person, but pay a fine of ? (700$)?

While us little people have to foot the bill of a 5trillion dollar deal (If you remember they didn't include all people originally as the cost wasn't linear, it expanded rapidly with increased numbers.

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My gut tells me that it is upheld but with the mandate and medicaid expansion removed.

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Here's my first thought on this:

Its ridiculous how important people think this decision really is. We are talking about a $200 fine for people who don't get health insurance, and people are acting as if this is the most important decision in the history of SCOTUS. Its not, but its been covered that way, and people somehow think it is.

---------- Post added June-28th-2012 at 09:52 AM ----------

And then there's this:

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