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About DogofWar1

  • Rank
    The Playmaker
  • Birthday 08/18/1990

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  • Redskins Fan Since
    1996 (6 years old)
  • Favorite Redskin
    Sean Taylor (RIP)
  • Location
    Arlington, VA
  1. The only people who won't distance themselves are the willfully ignorant. The guys who bought into the "Russia is fake news and will go away and leaks are the real scandal also DNC/Clinton murders" stuff will stick around because they've convinced themselves the alternate reality is the actual reality. Meanwhile, all the old school intel guys say this looks like espionage and likely illegal as ****. Guess who else is a bit old school? Mueller. Kushner is gonna be under the microscope and any misplaced twitch will be watched and catalogued. If you're close to him, and he tells you something about his activities, and those activities later turn out to be illegal, and you didn't come forward, you too are screwed unless your knowledge of events stays hidden. Considering how leaky the Trump WH is, that's doubtful. Everyone should assume that Mueller knows everything about the goings on in the WH, even if he doesn't actually, just to be safe.
  2. Ah, that makes it a little different but not really much better. February judge still screwed up royally.
  3. Also, assuming all this happened with the same judge, which the article isn't 100% clear on but it seems like it was, this guy is a disgrace to the legal profession. The one potential out for the judge would have been if he violated the guy AFTER the guy tried to enter an Alford plea, but there are two problems with that: 1. Judge violated him in February, and article makes it sound like he tried to enter the plea much closer to August, well after the violation. 2. Judge rejected the plea. If you're gonna reject the plea and force a jury trial, you ought to accept the consequences of your rejection of the plea and assume innocence until guilt. Timeline appears to be after the guy turns himself in in late 2015, judge violates the guy's probation in February, then guy tries to enter a plea around August, which is rejected, and guy is found not guilty in August at trial. Any self-respecting attorney would look at that timeline and call foul. Especially since the judge rejected the plea. I mean, jeez, he accepts the plea and you get a conviction which covers your butt, but no, you rejected it and refuse to accept the consequences? What the hell dude. Disgrace.
  4. This guy can hopefully appeal his case and get this nonsense tossed. Probation is so often designed to screw you and get you in more trouble. "Be here at 830 tomorrow morning for a meeting. Oh, you have work and need more than 12 hours notice to take off? ****ing tough." And judges generally don't like to push back against probation officers too much. Usually though, at least in NoVA, they wait until a conviction to violate you for picking up new charges. There needs to be a remedy here for him. Otherwise it's a REALLY BAD showing for our "justice" system.
  5. Mueller probably is just gonna call up Mike at NYT in 3 months and be like "yo, I like your ****, who should I arrest?" And he'll get a list of like 50 names with tons of evidence. It's gonna be wild.
  6. Yeah, but those 7 sources are anonymous so they don't really count.
  7. Jeebus criminy. And to think there was a time I thought there was a chance Jared would be a moderating factor up there. Admittedly, only a chance, but still, wow, not even close. Guy sounds like he might be the worst offender. One thing I'll say is that if Kushner is in deep, Trump is almost certainly too. Trump loves Kushner and keeps him close. I would say Kushner is probably smart enough to insulate Trump, but if he's dumb enough to ask for a backchannel using Russian communications equipment, he's probably dumb enough to discuss it with daddy-in-law. And Trump, of course, is too dumb to insulate himself.
  8. Well 2 things. 1. It's not just Montana. The other special elections have followed similar trends, so Montana is one data point on a trendline. IIRC all the other races have shown a large swing towards dems, usually about 12ish points. That suggests about 64 seats in play per 538. 2. Around 70% of the votes in Montana were cast pre-punch via early voting, which suggests the impact of the assault was limited, and that pre-assault factors were mostly there. I suppose a late swing towards Quist from late voters could swing the race from maybe R+9 to R+7 or something, but no matter how we slice it this race is largely in keeping with other special elections; big swings towards Dems but not big enough to win in "safe" GOP districts.
  9. This was, realistically, another good result for Dems. 538 ran some quick numbers last night based on a +8 victory for the GOP. It basically suggests that around 64 seats are in play if the election were held today, which is almost triple the number needed to retake the house (24). The actual margin, right at +7 plays pretty close to that. Some dems are frustrated that Dems aren't outright winning these things, but they've all been in heavily GOP areas. Wins would be absolute coups, and suggest the number of seats in play to be well over 100 (IIRC if Quist won by a point it would suggest about 120-something seats in play). That's not really realistic, unless, say, Trump and his most of his administration is found beyond reasonable doubt to have committed illegal acts. Even then, it might take a McConnell or Ryan to go down to take out half the caucus like that. Still, if I was a betting man, last night's results are ones that would make me feel okay putting down money for a Dem retaking of the house in 2018. With 64ish seats in play, it's likely Dems would take 48ish, and take a lead similar to what hlthe GOP has now. Now, all that being said, I suspect it will get worse for Trump and the GOP before it gets better. At least a few people are gonna go down. That could very much lend an Abramoff style stink to the whole GOP for 2018.
  10. Kushner under scrutiny must be terrifying for people in Trumpland, since that almost certainly means the Asian connections are getting checked too. Kushner has Russian ties too, of course, but he's in deep with Chinese too, indeed maybe even more so to Chinese than Russians.
  11. Are we at the stage where they would normally be showing the public evidence of legal charges? I'll save you the trouble, no we're not. But pretending the empaneling of grand juries, the issuing of subpoebas from said grand juries, the statements from long time officials in official settings, etc. Etc. Etc. mean nothing is ostriching at its finest.
  12. Nice try guy, but still wrong: Of course he didn't say he saw evidence of legally conclusive things. That's not his place, nor his job. His job is intel. He sees evidence of stuff "happening" which is completely separate from evidence of legal conclusions. But nice obfuscation attempt bruh.
  13. Unless it's untreated neurosyphilis. Then I win the bet.