Haven't read through all the thread yet but I wanted to add some insights from some of my favorite sources, rotoviz is on the cutting edge of analytics as is player profiler and Matt Kelley, Matt Waldman is well known for his film study work and being highly skilled at evaluating RB's (despite being in the fantasy community he makes some coin doing freelance work for NFL teams from time to time too) though I wish he paid more attention to analytics. Fusue Due has made a lot of noise with the information he's dug up on Fournette (particularly the god awful comparison between his play in the I formation w/a lead fullback, and how his production drops by around 40% when operating as a lone back, something that suggests major issues at the NFL level), as well as his evaluations contrary results (Ishamel Zamora, a UDF was inside his top 3 rankings at WR for instance).
Personally my view of Perine is two fold: #1 there seems to be a clear dichotomy between Perine in '14/'15 and Perine in '16, namely, he looked much more athletic, and much more skilled early in his career, and much less dynamic this past year. A lot of concern that he may have been carrying injury, or just broke down a bit, it's that stark, the possibility that the team coached him to run differently could also explain it. If we get the '14/'15 Perine, we get a future pro bowler, if we get the '16 guy, I think we get an adequate starter a bit better than Kelley. I think w/the line in place and hopeful improvements in run blocking which remains middling, and a passing game as capable as ours, Perine could thrive. There were other RB's I would have preferred: Nicholson, Aaron Jones, Kareem Hunt, and some I valued fairly similarly like Mack and Hill, but Perine, at slot 114, was a genuine value, I thought he should have gone top 85-100, I think he's a legit starter, whereas I didn't think that of Matt Jones. I preferred Nicholson for his passing game background and chops (was a WR in high school till late), as well as his dynamism as a runner, he's exceptionally skilled, but also raw in terms of instincts, Jones could end up being the steal of the draft. Had legit top 50-75 talent in my view. Just a monster stud. I firmly believe NFL F.O.'s were idiots in letting these guys drop until relatively late day 3, and view them as top 5-6 RB's in the class better than the bulk of the RB's selected. The problem is F.O.'s look at both of them and see satellite backs, rather than bell cows. I think they're flat out wrong, and I do give us and the Bucs a bit of a pass w/regards to them because we already have possibly two stud satellite backs in house (Thompson is very good in the row, and Marshall could develop into a monster if he could ever stay healthy), so it wasn't really a need, while Tampa actually did draft McNichols probably as a challenger for Sims role and w/the knowledge that they may be able to kick Martin to the curb if the suspension allows them to cut him w/o cap consequences. The Packers I'm less sure about. They brought in Jamaal Williams, similar to Perine, but a teeny bit more athletic while being not as strong, Aaron Jones, a monster stud, and an interesting athlete in Mays, while seemingly ready to give Ty Montgomery a good 10-15 touches a game. Wouldn't be a surprise if Green Bay experimented with a stable approach to give defenses different looks. Hunt's a personal favorite of mine. Tested poorly at the combine but won plaudits for his performance in film study, just looks like a dynamic, instinctive back with great balance and acceleration. I think he wins the KC job and turns into a top 15 RB in this league if not better. Was surprised he went so early though, after the combine he belonged in that muddle with Kamara, Perine, Mack, Hill, Williams, Jones and Nicholson. He was my favorite of the bunch but he still belonged in there. I forgot to mention Joe Williams, a steal for the Niners, word is that the Niners had him off the board due to his quitting (story seems to be family issues were too urgent for him to give the time necessary to play pro ball, but when the team was hit by a barrage of injuries at the RB position, he offered to come back in order to help), but that Kyle did the cliche'd, "Standing and pounding on the table for his selection" deal. Really like him too.
Anyway w/regards to us, I make no prediction for Perine other than that he'll win the starting job. Kelley is a classic backup, he can step right in and perform Perine's role adequately but lacks Perine's athletic profile and skill set, he makes sense as the direct backup while we try to see if Marshall can be turned into Thompson's replacement and eventually perhaps the Lightning to Perine's thunder. Either way our RB will improve a bit as long as the line can stay healthy. This was an excellent value and a solid pick in my view. My fav part about the pick was that unlike the Saints, Texans and Steelers who made puzzling moves, and the chiefs who pulled the trigger too early, we waited, and got a potential steal at corner w/our third rounder, getting better value by starting the day 3 RB run (always good to start a run rather than get stuck in the middle or end of one) in the early 4th instead of using a mid-3rd on a back who'd be no better and perhaps worse than RB's we could get 35+ picks later (in my view, and that of many I trust, the RB's rated around 5th-15th, are so similar, that waiting on the position made more sense than grabbing one early so long as you got the guy that fit your system's needs (for me and for us my guess was players like Perine, Hunt, Jamaal Williams, James Conner, Mack, Hill, J. Williams and perhaps McNichols and Jones (if we had our eyes open about them being legit bell cow's)), w/that knowledge in tow, it made sense to wait, there were literally at least 4-6 RB's (and as many as 9 if using my approach ) that depending upon our valuations, fit our needs and could be picked. These guys were taken 86th-3rd (Hunt), 105th-3rd (Conner?!?!), 114th-4th (Perine), 121st-4th (Joe Williams), 134th-4th (Jamaal Williams), 143rd-4th (Mack), and 156th-5th (Hill). Starting the day 3 run was clearly, especially if we had our evaluation sound, an excellent decision, and allowed us to land in Moreau, a possible steal, by avoiding reaching in round 3, and also prevented us from likely being stuck with Brian Hill, or nobody if we hadn't pulled the trigger when we did (only Hill was still available by the time we picked in round 5, although all save Williams and possibly Perine would have been available w/our 2nd 4th rounder if we'd chosen to wait a bit longer than 114). Basically every single back with a seeming bell cow evaluation went before our fifth rounder save for Brian Hill.
A few insights from sites on the cutting edge of the metrics revolution, and some quotes from guys I trust and more:
"....Perine played in only 9 games this season. Despite battling injuries and splitting time with Mixon, only Perine and Garrett Wolfe reached 4000 rushing yards and 48 rushing touchdowns in 35 or fewer career games since 2000 per.....
most of Perine’s production came in his first two seasons with close to a fifty percent market share of Oklahoma’s rush attempts, rushing yards and rushing touchdowns....Since November 1st Perine picked up more rushing opportunity in their final three games. He boosted his 2016 market share of rushing attempts and yards from 27 percent to 34 percent in both categories and accounted for 40 percent of the Sooners rushing touchdowns....Samaje Perine is built like Eddie Lacy and Andre Williams. While those seem like ominous comparisons, both were considered good prospects entering the NFL. Neither of which have the production resume of Perine, especially at such a young age....Perine has displayed some competence in the passing game, something that Williams never did at any level and what Lacy wasn’t often asked to do with the Packers...I expect Perine to succeed if given a similar role to what Lacy experienced in Green Bay. In the right situation, he could be a highly productive running back capable of scoring double digit rushing touchdowns each year. He’s currently expected to be a second or third round pick in the 2017 NFL Draft....We’ll have to see what his combine numbers look like. We know Perine is unbelievably strong... He’s still relatively young and would be 21 years old at the start of next season.
Perine’s numbers point in two opposite directions. His 1,713 yards and 21 TDs as a freshman paint him as a Jordan Howard clone, and it’s easy to see him following Howard’s 2016 trajectory. On the other hand, his athletic profile gives him a very small chance of early relevance according to Cole’s model.