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Productive pointers and predictions

By Marv Levy

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/8060536

(Jan. 2, 2005) -- What a way to finish the regular season. There were games with playoff-bound teams battling for position, games with playoff hopefuls trying to avoid losing to their "spoiler" opponents, and even a hard-fought game with two teams with postseason aspirations, only to see both teams miss the playoffs.

You have to feel a little bit for the Panthers and Saints. These division rivals fought tooth and nail for 60 minutes, at times playing their best football of the year. Too bad that in the end, Carolina missed the playoffs because New Orleans beat them, and New Orleans missed the playoffs because of tiebreakers against the Rams and Vikings.

You have to feel a little bit for the Bills, who fought back valiantly after a sluggish 0-4 start. They had every opportunity to win their game against the Steelers, but a costly turnover sealed it, and they were defeated by Pittsburgh's backups. You're only adding salt to their wound when you bring up the fact that the Jets lost. Had Buffalo won, they would be playing next week.

Both of those examples show you just how close things are when it comes to the playoffs.

The mindset of "backing in"

The Jets and Vikings both lost this week, but still clinched a playoff berth. They call this "backing into the playoffs." People will say it's not right for a team to make it this way, but it is absolutely right. These teams earned their way there on what happened all season long. It's not just what happens in the 17th week of the season that counts here -- it's all 17 weeks of the season that count.

We never went into Wild Card Weekend with a loss when I was with the Bills, but I know what I'd say to my team if I had. And it's something along the lines of what Mike Tice and Herman Edwards will say to their teams in the very near future: There's good news and there's bad news. The bad news is that you're not playing up to your capabilities and you lost some games. You almost let the playoffs slip through your fingers. But the good news is that none of that matters anymore.

Herman Edwards needs to keep his players motivated even though they lost in Week 17.

The fact is the Vikings and Jets have been granted opportunities on the basis of how they've played on the whole. Now show that you're worthy. During the week, the coaches shouldn't change much from how things ran during the season. But what should happen is that the players will say to themselves, "Man, this is a good game plan. I'm ready for the game!" The motivation is the sense of truly feeling prepared.

Edwards, Tice and all of the other remaining coaches will take their players' eyes off all the machinations that have been going on. They're in the playoffs -- what they do from here on out is what counts. Concentrate on what's ahead.

Is knowing half the battle?

Not to continue talking about the Jets, but something interesting happened to them in their game against the Rams. Namely, the Bills lost their game before the Jets were finished playing, clinching a playoff spot for New York. Edwards had to have known this as the out-of-town scoreboard probably displayed the result (possibly several times in St. Louis in hopes of having the Jets call off their first team). Should he have done what he did, playing to win the game, or should he have sent in the second-stringers to preserve his team as best he could for next week?

The Jets had been too much in the fray at that point to pull out their top guys. I don't think there's any let up that they sense. But maybe deep down in their psyches, the players are thinking, "Ahhh! We're in!" Maybe the motivation dwindled then, maybe it didn't. I don't think it's the reason why the Jets lost -- the Rams played very well -- but maybe it preyed on their mind just a little bit. It doesn't make the game quite as urgent when you know you've done the best you can do for the playoffs.

I think Edwards did the right thing in playing for the win, and that included not going for it on fourth down on the last play of regulation. Instead, the Jets kicked a field goal and played hard well into overtime.

When I coached, I didn't even want to know how my opponents were doing. We asked our home scoreboard operators not to put scores up when we were in situations like that. We immersed ourselves in the game at hand. We directed every effort to concentrate on this game, and good things happen when you win.

Let's get Wild!

Wild Card Weekend starts next week, but I can't wait. We know the matchups, so let's give a first look into each game.

Minnesota at Green Bay: Right now, momentum is clearly with the Packers, and they will be playing at home. The Vikings have lost 18 of their last 20 games outdoors, which is just unbelieveable. I think the Packers have a heavy advantage even though the Vikings played them close twice this year. And if I'm Mike Sherman, I would not want my players reading this after having said all of that.

MARV: OUT OF BOUNDS

Marv Levy knows a lot about other stuff besides football. Each week, Levy will touch on a non-football topic as part of his column.

Earlier today, I received an urgent telephone call from Dr. Isosceles Triangle, Ph. D., who is the head of the mathematics department at MIT. It was a plaintive plea on his part for information that might help him explain to the other professors there the intricacies involved in unraveling the formula used by the NFL in determining what must happen during the final two weeks of the season in order for the league to anoint the final wild-card participants in each of the two conferences.

After getting past evaluations of results of head-to-head competition and comparative conference records, I must admit that the process became increasingly more difficult to understand. And so, in order to assuage that renowned educator's anguish, I moved swiftly to solving the complex equation by noting that if, after the first 19 steps, nothing had been resolved and if there were three teams still in the fray, then the team that had the best third-down conversion percentage in the red zone, outdoors, on the road, with the temperature under 40 degrees Fahrenheit would be declared the winner.

In the unlikely event that there were still two teams tied for the coveted honor, a coin toss (subject to instant replay) would be invoked. The person tossing that coin would be selected by a lottery held among the patrons of the Anchor Bar at Buffalo, provided that the winner of the drawing passed a sobriety blood test administered by the team doctors of both teams involved in the toss off.

If the tossed coin were somehow to come to rest standing straight on its rim rather that lying on either flat side, then the team owners involved would settle the matter by engaging in an arm-wrestling contest -- best two out of three.

Let the playoffs begin!

St. Louis at Seattle: The second of two divisional rematches in the NFC playoffs. All year long these teams have blundered along, which may make for an interesting game. This may be the hardest game to predict because both teams have been unpredictable. Nevertheless, both teams are very capable but need to work on their consistency. I give Seattle an edge since they're the ones not traveling.

Denver at Indianapolis: Everything suggests that Indianapolis has every advantage in the book, but the Broncos can run the football very well. This will be the fourth meeting between these teams in 13 months, so you can count on them being very familiar with each other. Indianapolis better stop the run if it wants to take pressure off the offense. Remember this: The Broncos will see a quarterback wearing No. 18 next week that they didn't see in Week 17.

New York Jets at San Diego: This may come as a surprise to some, but I think the Jets really have their hands full. The Jets may be the most suspect team going into the playoffs on the AFC side. They have to fly all the way out to San Diego and face a Chargers team that is playing very well. The Jets will have a real uphill battle.

Keep your eyes peeled

I know the season just ended for 20 teams, and that the playoffs haven't even begun, but there are a few teams out there that missed on getting the chance to win the Super Bowl and will reload for 2005. I'd like to point them out to you.

Buffalo: Not because I coached there, but the Bills have a lot of pieces in place. You can start with Willis McGahee, a great defense on the rise and a fine coaching staff, but they have other components, too. They have a superb kicking game, the addition of wide receiver Lee Evans proved to be big and I like the way J.P. Losman plays.

Kansas City: They came on late in the year and became a team that could run the ball no matter who started at running back. They need help defensively, but I suspect Dick Vermeil will seriously address that in the offseason.

Washington: The Redskins have played fine defense all year despite their lackluster record. I think Joe Gibbs has gotten his feet wet again, he's back in the flow and the tempo has picked up. He's back in coaching condition, and that could mean trouble for the rest of the NFC.

Two teams that I didn't mention that you may have thought of are the Jaguars and Ravens, both of whom missed out on the playoffs by narrow margins this year. I respect what Jacksonville and Baltimore did, but I think they both overachieved a little this year. I'll need some convincing, and I'm sure they'll be glad to try.

What have we learned this week?

The Eagles need to wake up. I've never been a staunch advocate for maintaining momentum, but Philadelphia's last two games have been awful. And I've noticed that it's coincided with Terrell Owens' injury. Now they're going to go another week without playing. I do wonder if the flame has gone out for the Eagles. Of course, all they have to do is return to form in two weeks and we'll be all wrong.

Brett Favre can do well in Chicago. Can you believe that Favre has won 11 straight games at the Bears? Old Soldier Field, new Soldier Field, it doesn't matter to him. They say Favre only played into the second quarter, but he threw for nearly 200 yards and two touchdowns -- that's a whole game's worth. With that type of rivalry, that's an amazing feat.

If you're coaching a team, don't get caught up! If coaches play on the strings of emotion after they've been after this for months and months, you won't get your players prepared for the game. Emotion is nice, but it won't block Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila.

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